Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, April 4, 2013
|
Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, April 4, 2013 |
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 1, 2013 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market shows a divergence with Dow moving higher and Nasdaq lagging. Bulls be conservative and selective.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PNRA - AVERAGE |
PNRA, based in St. Louis, operates 1,650 bakery-restaurants. Annual revenues: $2.1 billion. PNRA' stock breaks out today from an 8-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. So far today, PNRA is trading a heavy 1.2 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 430,000 shares. 
The stock has been a steady and outstanding long-term performer.
PNRA's stock rose sharply in the morning and later just edged over its breakpoint. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock got a boost from an upgrade from Goldman Sachs and positive comments from Sanford C. Bernstein Co.
The company's new CFO is Roger Matthews. He previously spent 15 years at Goldman where he was senior relationship banker for the restaurant group. 
He recently was granted stock options. The price was not disclosed.
PNRA's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from $169.50 to as high as $176.22.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 13,724 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $174.50.
That was up from the prior block at $169.50.
PNRA operates a retail bakery-cafe business and franchising business under the concept names Panera Bread Company and Saint Louis Bread Company. 
The company specializes in breakfast and lunch.
Its foods include fresh baked goods, made-to-order sandwiches on freshly baked breads.
It also sells soups, salads, custom roasted coffees, as well as other cafe beverages.
It targets suburban dwellers and workers by offering a premium specialty bakery.
PNRA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 10% the past 12 months versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock has lagged because of its long consolidation pattern.
PNRA's long-term chart shows the stock trading around $10 back in 2001. The stock rose to a peak of 75 in early 2006. It then fell back to 30 in early 2008. However, since then the stock has been pushing higher in a steady fashion. The push to a new high could bring in more buying. 
PNRA's daily chart shows the stock trending sideways from September through April.
It put in a lot of time basing.
Today's breakout clears the base nicely as the stock rallies over the past few days on expanding volume.
PNRA's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend showing weak underlying buying. So, that should make one cautious on the stock.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 20% jump in PNRA's earnings to $7.05 a share from $5.89 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2014, the Street is projecting a 15% gain in net to $8.08 a share from the anticipated $7.05 this year. 
Net for the upcoming first quarter should rise 18% to $1.64 a share from $1.40 the year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.68 a share.
TTD sees good chances for a mild upside surprise. The prior four quarters PNRA topped the consensus estimate by one to 11 cents a share.
Going out to the second quarter, analysts look for a 17% gain in net to $1.76 a share from $1.50 the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests scaling into PNRA. We are targeting the stock for a move to 200. A protective stop can be placed near 169.
TTD rates PNRA an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 3% stake. The 5-star rated fund has kept its position stable. The 4-star rated Prudential Jennison Mid Cap Growth Fund was a recent purchaser of 21,234 shares.
PNRA has 29.6 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 89% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Very Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $40 to $46. They were recent sellers at $164. Currently, 21 analysts follow the stock, 13 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Panera Bread Co. - (PNRA) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CATM - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVE - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XTEX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks so far today. NYSE holding but Nasdaq weak as we enter earnings season.
TDC, based in Dayton, Ohio, provides data services and enterprise analytics. Annual revenues: $2.7 billion. TDC's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. So far today, TDC is trading a heavy 17 million shares, ten times its normal daily volume of 1.6 million shares. 
The drop was linked to Mizuho Securities lowering its price target on the stock to $65 from $71. The analysts at the firm said TDC has significant headwinds in the first half.
The stock fell steadily in the morning and hit an intraday low in the early afternoon at $50.40. It then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
TDC's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $58.51 to $51.75.
Analysts expect TDC to show a 5% decline in net for the first quarter and a 1% drop in the second quarter. However, overall, they project a 9% rise in profits for the year to $2.93 a share from $2.58 a year before.
TDC provides data warehousing and enterprise analytics. Teradata is located in more than forty countries.
TDC's daily chart shows the stock dropping sharply with big volume. The stock has been in a down trend for the past few months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TDC for a decline to 45 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 53.10.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TDC - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
