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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, April 5 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday April 5 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 25
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list jumps sharply as 2nd quarter begins. Stock market extended. Bulls be careful now and more conservative. Earnings season now begins. So, one must be alert.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CREE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CREE, based in Durham, N.C., makes semiconductor materials and devices based on silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN) and related compounds. Annual revenues: $647 million. CREE's stock breaks out strongly from a 5-week flat base. The stock's push higher was aided by a brokerage recommendation. So far today, CREE is trading 6.6 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 2 million shares. 
TTD highlighted CREE's breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
CREE's 10-minute chart shows the stock cutting across its breakpoint line in the morning. The stock then paused, but turned higher again. The advance was very strong.
CREE also continued to work higher late in the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see early in the day a big block of 60,024 shares crossed (duplicated) at $72.88. That was up sharply from the prior block trade that went off at $70.98.
The tape action was strong at that point and aided by UBS recommendation and a target price of $92
Another key trade later in the day was a big block of 10,000 shares that crossed at $76.82. That was up from the prior block trade at $76.40.
The tape action indicated good institutional buying not only on the broker buy, but also later in the day.
CREE focuses on light emitting diodes (LEDs), which consist of LED chips, LED components and LED lighting products.
The company also develops power and radio frequency products, including power switching and RF devices.
The majority of CREE's products are made at its main plant in North Carolina. It also operates research and development facilities in North Carolina, California, Hong Kong and China.
CREE's 12- month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 190% versus a 45% gain in the S&P 500 index. Semiconductor stocks are now acting strong. So, CREE has the benefit of being in a strong group.
CREE's long-term chart shows a "dormant stock" coming to life. The stock did trade in the 90s back in 2000. It fell in the bear market of 2001 and spent the rest of the years bobbing up and down in a range roughly between 20 and 40. However, it has since broken out of the long-term range and is in a strong up trend. The stock has the characteristics of a leader. 
CREE's daily chart shows the recent advance from 35 to 70. The stock set up a small, 5-week, flat base. Today it breaks out strongly with a good expansion in volume.
The structure of the base is bullish. The breakout shows a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish. Also, the basing work is above a rising 50-day moving average line. That show the stock in a strong up trend.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend and broke out before the stock's price.
This fiscal year ending in June, analysts forecast CREE's earnings will surge 188% to $1.41 a share from 49 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 53 which is high.
Going out to fiscal 2011, earnings are expected to climb 38% to $1.95 a share.
Analysts expect CREE to benefit from better prices and good sales.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending March 30, analysts expect net to jump 290% to 39 cents a share from 10 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 42 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The past two quarters, CREE topped the consensus estimate by 7 cents and 8 cents a share.
Net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending June 30 is expected to climb 255% to 43 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD still sees CREE as a good breakout play even though it received a broker upgrade. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 94 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 72. TTD rates CREE a good intermediate-term play with potential to surprise on the upside.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The larges fund buyer recently was Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 1 million shares. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Growth Company Fund, 3-star rated, with a big 8.7% stake. It has held its position steady. CREE has 106 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were cent sellers with the highest price being $70. Right now, 21 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, down from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Cree Inc. (CREE) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AIXG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SLAB - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CXO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMG - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only one short play. Bears be conservative, but watchful. TTD's short from last Wednesday was Saic Inc. (SAI) - 7.73, down 0.69. Today the stock falls to 17.38 and is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
LPS, based in Jacksonville, Fla., provides technology and services to the mortgage lending industry. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. LPS' stock falls sharply today with heavy volume under cutting key technical support. The stock has been acting weak in recent sessions. So far today, LPS is trading a heavy 2.2 million shares, almost four times its normal daily volume of 649,000 shares. 
LPS fell sharply at the opening. It then drifted lower touching a bottom in the early afternoon at 35.92. It then rallied a bit in the late afternoon.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades in the morning. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $38.11 to $36.42. A key trade was a big block of 40,000 shares that crossed at $36.69. That was down from the prior block that went off at $36.78.
The drop was triggered by concern about how LPS handles documentation of data used in foreclosures. The process is under review. The news obviously triggered a wave of selling.
The Company operates in two areas: technology, data and analytics and loan transaction services, which produced 30% and 70%, respectively, of revenues.
LPS' quarterly earnings growth is expected to decelerate. The Street looks for a 24% rise in net in the first quarter. Then in the second quarter net should be up only 7%. Overall, for the year, the Street is looking for a 13% rise in net to $3.54 a share from $3.12 a year ago.
LPS's chart shows the stock advancing last year and then going into a flat base. The stock is now rolling over and picking up volume. LPS's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LPS for a decline to 30 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD sees the stock has a trading short. A protective stop can be placed near 37.50
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
