Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - April 5, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Thursday - April 5, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  19

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Large list of breakouts Thursday with some good looking plays.

Stock market  -  Mixed. Dow and S&P daily now bullish - trying to rally after a recent decline. Nasdaq Daily remains in bearish. Weekly indicators remain bearish, while Monthly averages are bullish.

Overall, market is mixed and very selective. Earnings will be a big factor that will impact stocks.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Thursday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW) - 196.40, up 7.16 - Breakpoint 191.36

Net To Jump 43% in Fiscal 2018 (July), TTD Targets 235 

  PANW, based in Santa Clara, Ca., provides a security platform against internet attacks. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. PANW's stock surges higher Thursday and breaks out from a five-week flat base.

 The move carries the stock close to a new all-time high.

  So far today, PANW is trading 3 million shares, more than double its average daily volume of 1.3 million shares.

  TTD highlighted PANW as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  PANW 's stock moved higher in the morning clearing its breakpoint line.

 The stock trended sideways around midday.

 Then in the afternoon the stock drove higher to finish near its high for the day.

  Tape Action

  PANW's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from  $188.69 in the prior session to as high as $196.40.

  A key bullish trade came late on Wednesday when a massive block of 309,715 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $189.24.

  That was up from the prior block at $188.69 on 21,500 shares.   

  The tape action indicated significant accumulation.

  Then near the close Thursday a big block of 88,255 shares (duplicated) crossed at $196.40.

  That was up from the prior block at $193.90 on 21,973 shares.

  Business

 PANW offers a computer security platform.

 The company's security platform consists of three elements: Next-generation firewall, advanced endpoint protection and threat intelligence cloud.

   Its next-generation firewall delivers application, user and content visibility and control, as well as protection against network-based cyber threats.

   Its advanced endpoint protection prevents cyber attacks that run malicious code or exploit software vulnerabilities on a range of fixed and virtual endpoints and servers.

   Its threat intelligence cloud provides  security for software as a service applications and automated delivery of preventative measures against cyber attacks.

Charts

  PANW's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 80% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options $10.77. They were sellers at $149  to $187 a share.

  PANW's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2012 at $58.72. The stock pulled back to around $40 in 2013.

  However, it then rose aggressive to its all-time high of $200.55 by 2015. The stock then declined to $107 by 2017. Since then, the stock has driven sharply higher.   

  PANW's daily chart shows the stock climbing from around $140 in November to a peak near $191 by March.  

  The stock put down a small flat base.

  The breakout comes with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is strongly bullish.

   Earnings Outlook:

  Net for the fiscal year ending in July analysts are forecasting a 43% surge in net to $3.88 a share from the $2.71 a year ago.

  The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 47. TTD sees that as okay given the earnings growth rate.

  Looking ahead to fiscal 2019, the Street is predicting a 27% rise in net to $4.93 a share from the anticipated $3.88 this year.

  Profits for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in April is expected to surge 56% to 95 cents a share from the 61 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at $96 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.

  The company topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters by 7 cents a share, 6 cents, 13 cents and 6 cents.

  Looking out to the fiscal fourth quarter, analysts predict a 30% jump in net to $1.20 a share from the 92 cents the year before.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PANW for a move to $235. A protective stop can be place near $188.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.

Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Modestly Bullish-  PANW has tended to score just small gains off its recent breakouts. In the past, it has scored some big gains.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish  PANW rose 6 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish.  PANW declined an average of 1.9% in April but rose an average of 7.1% in May the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 2

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Only two breakdown stocks Thursday as stock market rallies.

  TTD's short from Wednesday was Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD) at $79.67. Thursday, GOLD declined to $78.91 and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM) - 113.53, down 3.84

Profits to Fall 22% in Fiscal 2018 (Oct.), TTD Sees Drop to 100

  SAFM, based in Laurel, Miss., is a poultry processing company. Annual revenues: $3.3 billion. SAFM's stock falls sharply Thursday undercutting key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, SAFM is trading a heavy 785,319 shares. Its average daily volume is 447,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted SAFM as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  SAFM has a beta of just 0.49 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the stock tends not to be that volatile.

  SAFM trended lower in the morning and touched a low of  $113.25 around noon. The stock tried to rally in the afternoon, but rolled over to drop back to $112.99, its low for the session.

  Tape Action

  SAFM's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $118.59 in the morning to as low as $113.36.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 29,800 shares crossed the tape at $116.83.

  That was down sharply from the prior block at $118.59 on 5,000 shares.

  Business

  SAFM sells  fresh and frozen chicken.

  It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name.

 The company sells to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets.  

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in October analysts are forecasting a 22% drop in earnings to $9.62 a share from the $12.30 the year before.

  Going out to fiscal 2019, the Street is predicting a 15% decline to $8.17 a share from the anticipated $9.62 this year.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending in April is expected to fall 29% to $2.10 a share from the $2.94 the year before.   

Charts:   

  SAFM's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support with a pick up in volume. The move resumes SAFM's down trend. The stock has moved lower after its past two earnings reports. (see yellow highlight on daily chart)

  SAFM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 11%, the same gain as the stock market. However, SAFM's performance has been eroding the past three months.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SAFM for a decline to $100 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $117.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish.  SAFM rose just 2 times after the past 6 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.  SAFM rose an average of 1.5% in April and 5.6% in May the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)