Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - April 6, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - April 6, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  3

Quality of Breakouts -  Below Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Just a few breakouts and extremely selective.

Stock market  -  Bearish. All major averages daily and weekly are bearish. The monthly averages still are bullish. Bulls be patient and very conservative.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Friday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) - 60.73, up 0.22 - Breakpoint 60.39

Net To Climb 19% This Year, TTD Targets 72 

  TXRH, based in Louisville, Ky., operates restaurants for casual dining. Annual revenues: $2.2 billion. TXRH's stock moves higher Friday and breaks out from its 11-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new high. That is bullish.

  So far today, TXRH is trading 1.4 million shares, double its average daily volume of 745,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted TXRH as a breakout at our midsession video show.

  TXRH's stock was recommended as a buy by a brokerage firm.

  TXRH's stock moved higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint. The stock continued higher and reached an intraday high of $61.74 in the early afternoon.

  The stock then pulled back in the afternoon, but held above their breakpoint.

   Tape Action

  TXRH's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $60.10 the prior session to as high as $61.40.

  A key bearish trade came late on Thursday when a block of 36,456 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $60.51.

  That was up from the prior block at $60.10 on 12,000 shares.

  At the close Friday, a massive block of 175,534 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $60.73.

  The trade came in a sequence started by a down tick from a prior trade at $60.75 on 298 shares.

  Business

 TXRH offers an assortment of seasoned and aged steaks, all cooked over open grills and all but one hand cut daily on the premises.

The company also offers ribs, fish, seafood, chicken, pork chops and vegetable plates. They also sell hamburgers, salads and sandwiches.

TXRH  has 23 franchisees that operated 86 Texas Roadhouse restaurants in 23 states and six foreign countries.  

Charts

  TXRH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 36% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were buyers using stock options. The price was not disclosed. They were sellers at $56  to $60.

  TXRH's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $10 back in 2010 to a peak at $61.74 recently. The move higher came as a steady upside progression with just modest pullbacks.   

  TXRH's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $48 back in November to a peak near $60 by late January.

  TXRH then pulled back slightly and trended sideways forming a flat base.

  Friday it just gets over its breakpoint line. However, the move comes with a good pick up in volume despite the stock market's sell off. That is impressive.

   Earnings Outlook:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 19% jump in net to $2.36 a share from the $1.97 the prior year.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 25. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Looking out to 2019, the Street is calling for a 13% rise in net to $2.66 a share from the anticipated $2.35 this year.

  Net for the first quarter will be strong. The Street is predicting a 23% rise in profits to 75 cents a share from 61 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate is at 80 cents a share. TXRH tends to come in close to the consensus or slightly beat it.

  Net for the second quarter is projected to rise 19% to 63 cents a share from 53 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TXRH for a move to $72 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $57. One can scale into the position.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability: Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. TXRH has scores some good  gains off its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral. TXRH rose 5 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish. TXRH declined an average of 1.8% in April but rose 5.2% in May the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  7

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Neutral.

Bear Side - Small list of shorts Friday even thought the stock market falls sharply. Bears be alert and aggressive. Often Friday big drop are followed by declines on Monday.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Carlisle Cos. (CSL) - 98.32, down 5.07

Stock Cuts Below Key Support, TTD Sees Drop to 84

  CSL, based in Scottsdale, Az., Makes roofing, construction and aerospace products. Annual revenues: $4.1 billion. CSL's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, CSL is trading 1.3 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 444,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted CSL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.

  CSL's stock gapped lower in the morning and cut below key technical support.

  The stock touched a low of $98.23 in the morning. The stock tried to rally getting to $99.80. However, it rolled over and fell to an intraday low of $97.27 in the afternoon.

  Tape Action

  CSL's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $103.40 in the prior session to as low as $97.75.

  A key bearish trade came late on Thursday when a block of 22,194 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $103.39.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $103.40 on 5,472 shares.

  Near the close Friday a massive block of 68,802 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $98.32.

  That was down from the prior block at $98.35 on 6,200 shares.

  Business

  CSL makes commercial roofing, energy, agriculture, mining, construction, aerospace and defense electronics, medical technology, transportation, general industrial, protective coatings, wood, auto refinishing and sanitary maintenance products. .

The company operates through four segments: Carlisle Construction Materials , Carlisle Interconnect Technologies,, Carlisle Fluid Technologies and Carlisle Brake & Friction

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 9% increase in net to $6.05 a share from the $5.53 the year before.

  Going out to 2019, analysts predict a 14% rise in net to $6.90 a share from the anticipated $6.05 this year.

  However, net for the first quarter is expected to be down 3% to $1.01 a share from the $1.04 the year before.

Charts:   

  CSL's daily chart shows the stock peaking at $119.21 earlier this year. The stock has since been trending lower. Friday, CSL cuts below key technical support with a big pick up in volume.

  CSL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 5% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been getting stock options. They have not done any recent buying or selling.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CSL for a decline to $84 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $102.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish.  CSL rose just 3 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish.    CSL rose an average of 0.1% in April and 2.3% in May the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)