Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, April 7 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 4 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts with a few high quality plays. Bulls be selective. Stock market's upside momentum weakening. It continues to hold against mounting selling pressure.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated April 4)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TPCG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TPCG, based in Houston, was formerly known as Texas Petrochemicals, Inc. Annual revenues: $1.7 billion. TPCG's stock breaks out from a 13-week flat base and hits a new all-time high. The stock got a boost from a recommendation from Oppenheimer & Co. So far today, TPCG is trading 632,334 shares, four times its normal daily volume of 148,000 shares.
TTD featured TPCG as a breakout at our midsession show on the web Thursday.
TTDs' 10-minute chart shows TPCG breaking out early in the session with a sharp move to the upside. No doubt that was aided by the bullish comments by Oppenheimer.
The stock hit a peak at 32.72. in the morning. It then drifted back a bit the rest of the day.
Oppenheimer set a price target of $39 to $42 in its report.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block action.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $28.89 to a peak of $37.37.
The key bullish trade came in the morning when 30,500 shares crossed the tape at $37.37, up from the prior block at $31.99.
TPCG produces special chemical products to major chemical and petroleum-based companies worldwide.
The company produces value-added products derived from niche petrochemical raw materials such as C4 hydrocarbons and sells its products and services into a wide range of performance, specialty and intermediate markets, including synthetic rubber, fuels, lubricant additives, plastics and surfactants.
The company's products include: butadiene, butene-1, diisobutylene, isobutylene and other specialty chemicals. The Company operates facilities in Port Neches and Baytown, Texas, as well as a product terminal in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
TPCG's 12- month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 180% versus a 20% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock is hot.
TPCG's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2004 and trading around 10. The stock then climbed to a peak of 33 by late 2006.
It then felt the bear market by falling back to 2, Ouch.
The stock has since roared back and is now making new highs. It is one of the biggest winners of the past two years.
TPCG's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 18 to 32. It then put down a flat base with two shakeouts to the downside. The past few sessions its pushed sharply higher.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up. However, it lags since it should be at a new peak to confirm the strength in the price of the stock.
TPCG is benefiting from a big increase in the price of its products.
This year, analysts forecast a 121% gain in net to $2.39 a share from $1.08 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 15. TTD sees that as low given the projected earnings growth rate.
Next year, the Street looks for a 29% gain in net to $3.08 a share from the anticipated $2.39 a share this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to jump 52% to 35 cents a share from 23 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 36 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TPCG for a move to 45. The strong profit growth should be the driver. A protective stop can be placed near 33 giving it some room. TTD rates TPCG a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Average. The stock has been picking up more of a fund following. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated American Century Small Cap Growth Fund which picked up 77,821 shares. Also 5-star rated TFS Market Neutral Fund was a recent purchaser of 12,966 shares. TPCG has 16.2 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were heavy sellers late last year. They have slowed the pace of their selling. The most recent selling was at $30.56. Just two analysts follow the stock, and both have a strong buy, up from one buy three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating TPC Group Inc. - (TPCG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RUSHA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HUN - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARW - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Stock market looking near-term toppy. Bears remain alert. TTD's short from Wednesday was Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) at 28.50. Today the stock has declined to 27.77 and is working well for bears.
RT, based in Maryville, Ten., operates casual restaurants. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. RT's stock falls sharply today after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fiscal third quarter ending February 28. So far today, RT is trading a heavy 8.8 million shares, 14 times its average daily volume of 661,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
RT was highlighted as a short at TTD's midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
RT reported net for the fiscal third quarter declined to 25 cents a share from 28 cents a year ago. The 25 cents was well below the consensus estimate of 31 cents a share. The stock responded in an extremely bearish way to the news.
The company also lowered its guidance for the rest of the year.
Analysts had been forecasting RT to post a 24% gain in net for the fiscal year ending May 30.
They were looking for 90 cents a share, up from 73 cents a year ago.
RT operates Ruby Tuesday restaurant and Mozzarella's & Tia's. Ruby Tuesdays are casual, full-service restaurants with whimsical artifacts, classic brass & Tiffany lamps which create a comfortable, nostalgic look & feel.
Mozzarella's is a full-service restaurant with a menu that features a variety of pastas & thin-crust pizzas, along with made-from-scratch soups, entree salads & sandwiches. Tia's, is a full-service casual dining restaurant.
RT's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower today. The stock had been drifting lower the past few months. However, it was trying to rally before it was derailed. The news came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RT for a decline to 8.20 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RT - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)