Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, April 8
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, April 8 |
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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, April 5 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday April 5 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list very small and quality below average. Stock market extended and vulnerable, Bulls be careful now and more conservative. Earnings season in swing. So, one must be alert.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TXRH - AVERAGE |
TXRH, based in Louisville, Ky., operates restaurants with a casual atmosphere with steak and chicken. Annual revenues: $942 million. TXRH's stock breaks out from a seven-week flat base today and makes a new 52-week high. Today's move comes with a good expansion in volume to 1.5 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 737,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted TXRH as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web. Restaurant stocks have been acting strong in recent sessions. Wednesday, Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) broke out and today followed through to the upside. 
TXRH's stock broke out in the morning (see TTD's 10 minute chart.
The stock drove higher after clearing its breakpoint. Through the late morning and afternoon, the stock trended sideways holding its gain.
The stock has tripled in the past 15 months.
TXRH's 
tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price working higher from $14.19 to $14.87. the key trade cane this morning when a big block of 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $14.87. That was up sharply from the prior trade that went off at $14.51.
The tape action indicated aggressive institutional buying interest.
TXRH owns 261 restaurants in 43 states and franchised and licensed an additional 70 restaurants in 24 states.
Of the 261 restaurants it owned, 260 operated as Texas Roadhouse, while one operated as Aspen Creek.
The company offers an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily and cooked to order over open gas-fired grills. It also offers a selection of ribs, fish, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork and vegetable plates.
TXRH's 9 month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 39% compared with a 30% gain for the S&P 500 index.
TXRH's stock came public in late 2004 and traded around $11 (see long-term chart). The stock hit a peak of $19.12 in 2005. It was dragged lower during the bear market hitting a bottom at $4.09 in 2008. It has since rallied strongly. 
TXRH's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 9.50 to 14. It then put down a well-formed flat base. Today's breakout is ideal and comes with good volume.
The basing work was done above a rising 50-day moving average line. That shows the stock is in a good up trend.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broke out to a new peak. That shows strong buying supporting the breakout. The technical setup is ideal for bulls.
This year analysts forecast a 12% increase in TXRH's earnings to 75 cents a share from 67 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 19,
Next year, the Street is projecting a 15% gain in net to 86 cents a share from the anticipated 75 cents this year.
The company has been able to produce steady earnings growth. We've been to their restaurants in Arizona and they serve good food and the places always seem to be crowded with a waiting line.
For the upcoming first quarter, TXRH should check in with a 15% improvement in profits to 23 cents a share from 20 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 26 cents a share. So, there are some that see a potential big first quarter. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past four quarters, TXRH has topped the consensus estimate by 2 to 4 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TXRH is a conservative breakout play. However, TTD sees good chances for a move to 18 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 13.30. TTD rates TXRH an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The top four fund holders have a 4-star rating. The largest fund holder is American Funds AMCAP with a big 6% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest fund buyer lately was 4-star rated Vanguard Explorer Fund which picked up 311,466 shares. TXRH has 70 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been steady and heavy sellers of the stock. The latest selling took place at $14. Currently, 16 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 9 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PIR - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears remain patient and conservative. TTD's short play from Wednesday was Masimo Corp. (MASI) - 25.75, down 0.49. Today, MASI has fallen to 25.39 and is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
CML, based in Eden Prairie, Min., provides network storage solutions that automate the movement and management of data. Annual revenues: $125 million. CML's stock gaps lower today and undercuts key support. The big drop was due to a lowering of the company's revenue forecast. So far today, CML is trading a tremendous 6.7 million shares, ten times its normal daily volume of 648,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
The stock started to move lower in pre-market trading. In then fell sharply in the morning. The stock has continued to edge lower even into the afternoon. The news came as a surprise and was the second big selloff on an earnings disappointment (see daily chart).
CML's tape action shows the recent big blocks. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $16.90 to $13.25. The largest trade was a big block of 222,000 shares that crossed near the opening today at $13.77. That was down from the prior block trade at $13.86.
The tape action and volume indicates an institutional flight away from the stock. It is very bearish.
CML said revenues for the first quarter would be $31.5 to $32 million. That is down from the prior forecast of revenues of $35 to $37 million. The news was taken very bearishly.
The company’s storage center is a Storage Area Network designed to lower storage and infrastructure capital expenditures, reduce the skill level and number of personnel required to manage information and enable continuous data availability and storage.
Storage Center is based on its Fluid Data Architecture, which allows enterprises of all sizes to move beyond simply storing data to actively, intelligently managing data. It developed its Storage Center software and hardware solution to target mid-size enterprises.
Analysts have been forecasting a breakeven first quarter compared with a profit of 3 cents a share a year ago. Net for the year was being projected at 17 cents a share, up 16% from 15 cents a year ago. Those estimates could be lowered.
CML's daily chart shows the breakdown to be the second in recent months. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is very bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CML for a decline to 10.30 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 14.40.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
