Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 4 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts today as stock market edges back. Bulls be selective. Stock market rallied, but upside momentum has weakened.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KEYN -BELOW AVERAGE |
KEYN, based in San Mateo, Ca., produces test & measurement solutions that improve mobile communications and online business performance. Annual revenues: $84 million. KEYN is a small cap tech play that breaks clear of an 11-week, flat base today. The stock has been acting strong the past year, after lagging for several years. So far today, KEYN is trading 410,215 shares, double its normal daily volume of 174,000 shares.
KEYN's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing over its breakpoint on Thursday. Today, the stock extends its advance even though the stock market is moving lower.
So, the action shows good follow through momentum which is bullish.
TTD highlighted KEYN as a breakout at our midsession show on Friday.
KEYN's tape action today was solidly bullish.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see today there was a big block of 4,510 shares and then another of 3,000 shares. They both went off at $21.50. That was within a sequence started by an up tick in big blocks late on Thursday when 3,497 shares crossed at $20.82.
KEYN provides IT and marketing executives with an unbiased view into their Internet services from around the world.
For over a decade, the company has been providing measurement data and testing capabilities that allow companies to understand and improve their customer's online and mobile experience.
KEYN has four test and measurement businesses: Web performance, mobile quality, streaming & VoIP, and customer experience UX.
KEYN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 85% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.
KEYN's long-term chart shows the stock trading in range for some 8-years. It has since pushed out of the range and is making new highs, which is bullish.
KEYN's daily chart shows the stock surging from 10 to 20 the past 8 months. The stock then put down a well-formed flat base starting earlier this year.
Notice the base is formed above a rising 50-day moving average line. That is bullish. The breakout took place on Thursday and today a key follow through move.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up strongly. That means strong buying has come into the stock. That is very bullish.
This fiscal year ending September 30 analysts forecast a 310% surge in net to 78 cents a share from 19 cents a year ago. The company is benefiting from the expansion of "cloud computing."
The next two quarters should be extremely bullish.
Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending March 31 is expected to jump 220% to 16 cents a share from 5 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 17 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a significant upside earnings surprise. The prior quarter, KEYN topped the consensus estimate by 10 cents a share, or by 77%. Impressive!
Net for the fiscal third quarter should leap to 18 cents a share from just one cent a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: KEYN was a lagging issue, but is now on the move. TTD is targeting KEYN for a move to 27 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 19. TTD rates KEYN an above average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is DFA USA Small Cap Value Fund with a 2.8% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer recently was 5-star rated TFS Market Neutral Fund which added 78,553 shares. KEYN has 15.4 million shares outstanding.
Insider Action: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They have turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $18.50. Five analysts follow the stock and all 5 have a strong buy.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Keynote Systems Inc. - (KEYN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APC - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FLS - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TPL - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TWC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Stock market starting to weaken. Good potential for a decline. Bears be aggressive now. TTD's short from Thursday was Ruby Tuesday (RT) at 11.15. So far today, the stock has declined to $10.55 and is working well for bears.
RCL, based in Miami, is a major cruise line firm. Annual revenues: $6.9 billion. RCL's stock takes a dive today with expanding volume. The move causes the stock to fall below key near-term technical support. The company's operations may be impacted by the rise in fuel costs. So far today, RCL is trading 4.4 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
RCL's stock and also other cruise line stocks are moving lower today. That shows weakness in the sector which is bullish.
RCL's stock fell sharply in the morning. It is continuing to head lower even in the late afternoon. The stock has hit an intraday low of 38.20.
RCL's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks working lower from $40.07 to $38.60. A key bearish trade came when a block of 16,000 shares traded in the morning at $39. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $40.03.
The tape action is clearly bearish.
RCL operates Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Royal Celebrity Tours. Royal Celebrity Tours operates cruise tour vacations in Alaska utilizing the world's largest glass-domed railcars
This year, analysts forecast RCL's earnings will climb 54% to $3.29 a share from$2.13 a year ago. However, the stock has been very sensitive to any shortfall in earnings projections. Net for the first quarter is expected to be 13 cents a share, up from one cent a year ago.
RCL's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key technical support today. The pattern also has the look of a head-and-shoulder top.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RCL for a decline to 32. A protective stop buy can be placed near 40.10
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RCL - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)