Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - April 9, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Monday - April 9, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  None

Quality of Breakouts -  None

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  No breakouts Monday. Bulls be patient  and extremely selective.

Stock market  -   Bearish. Major stock market averages are bearish both in the daily and week time frames. The monthly continues to hold bullish.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Monday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

None

No Breakouts Monday - TTD features a Stock Close To Breaking Out

Tyler Technologies Inc. (TYL) - 209.09, up 2.43 - Breakpoint 213.70

Net To Climb 22% This Year,  TTD Targets 250 

  TYL, based in Plano, Tex.,. provides information management solutions and services for the public sector with a focus on local governments. Annual revenues: $841 million. TYL's stock moves higher Monday putting it in position to breakout from its six-week flat base.

  There were no breakouts Monday. So, TTD highlights TYL as a stock to accumulate in anticipation of a breakout.

  So far today, TYL is trading 155,681 shares. Its average daily volume is 243,000 shares.

  TYL's 10-minute chart shows the stock moving higher in the morning and reaching an intraday peak in the early afternoon at $211.56.

  The stock the gave ground in the afternoon as the stock market sold off sharply.

  Tape Action

  TYL's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $206.66 in the prior session to as high as $211.35.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a small block of 653 shares crossed the tape at $207.81.

  That was up from the prior block trade at $206.66 on 814 shares the prior session.

  Near the close a block of 25,290 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $209.09.

  That block came on an up tick from the prior trade at $208.98 on 200 shares.

  Business

  The company operates through two segments: Enterprise Software and The Appraisal and Tax segment.

  The enterprise software provides municipal and county governments and schools with software systems and services for information technology and automation needs.

 It includes back-office functions, such as financial management, courts and justice processes, public safety, planning regulatory and maintenance, and land and vital records management.

 The appraisal and text unit provides systems that automate the appraisal and assessment of real and personal property, as well as property appraisal outsourcing services for local governments and tax authorities.  

Charts

  TYL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 35% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were buyers recently at $29 to $77 a share. They were sellers at $203 to $211 a share.

  TYL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $22 back in 2011 to a peak at $107.99 in early 2014.

  The stock then pulled back, but came on again and reached a peak at $171.60 in late 2015. Once again the stock pulled back, but came on again to reach an all-time high at $214.33.

  TYL's daily chart shows the stock forming a flat base the past six weeks.

  It is in ideal position to breakout to a new all-time high.

  TYL's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is now moving higher.

  Earnings Outlook:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 22% increase in net to $4.79 a share from the $3.92 a year ago.

  The stock sells with price-earnings ratio of 43. That is high.

  Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts a more modest 12% rise in net to $5.39 a share from the anticipated $4.79 this year.

  Profits for the upcoming first quarter should be up 24% to $1.12 a share from the 90 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.18 a share. The company topped the Street estimate the past two quarters by 3 cents a share and 4 cents.

  Net for the second quarter should climb 26% to $1.15 a share from the 91 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests accumulation of a partial stake in TYL with further buying to be done on a breakout over $213.70.  TTD is targeting TYL for a move $250 after a breakout.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability: Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Modestly Bullish. TYL has tended to score just modest gains off its recent breakouts. However, the stock is in a solid up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish   TYL rose 6 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish- TYL rose an average of 3.5% in April and 1.1% in May the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Neutral.

Bear Side - Several interesting short plays for aggressive bears. Stock market rally shaved Monday.

  TTD's short from Friday was Carlisle Cos. (CSL) at $98.32. Monday, CSL declined to 97.41 and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Tesaro Inc. (TSRO) -  51.78, down 2.92

Loss Expected This Year, TTD Sees Decline to 45

  TSRO, based in Waltham, Ma., is a biotech firm working on cancer treatments. Annual revenues: $223 million. TSRO's stock falls sharply Monday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far TSRO is trading a heavy 2.1 million shares, double its average daily volume of 930,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted TSRO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  TSRO's stock fell steadily in the morning and touched an intraday low of $50.67. The stock then rallied to $53.44 in the afternoon.

  It then faded a bit in the final hour.

  Tape Action

  TSRO's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $54.99 in the morning to as low as $51.78 by Monday's close.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 75,000 shares crossed the tape at $52.36.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $54.99 on 10,573 shares.

  Business

  TSRO is working on therapies covering oncology.

  It is developing rolapitant, niraparib and the product candidates under its immuno-oncology platform.

 Rolapitant is a potent and long-acting neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist for the prevention of chemotherapy induced nausea and vomiting.

  Niraparib is an orally active and potent polymerase inhibitor.

   Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $9.46 a share compared with a loss of $9.17 last year.

  Going out to 2019, the Street predicts a loss of $6.25 a share.   

Charts:   

  TSRO's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from  $120 in September to $52.20 by late February.

  The stock tried to rally but faded back and now undercuts key technical support with a big pick up in volume. That is very bearish.

  TSRO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 65%  versus a 10% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were buyers using stock options $24 to $43 a share the past several months. They also bought at $54 in March. They were sellers $54 to $69 a share in recent months  

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TSRO for a decline to $45 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $55.

Suitability: Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish.  TSRO rose just one time after the past 7 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bearish.  TSRO fell an average of 8% in April but rose an average of 6.9% in May the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)