Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 9,2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - April 10, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts with several leading issues. Aggressive bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Daily market averages turn bullish on the big gain Tuesday. However, the Weekly indicators remain bearish. The monthly indicators are still bullish.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATHM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
ATHM, based in China, provides an online service for automobile consumers in China. Annual revenues: $6.2 billion. ATHM's stock moves sharply higher Tuesday and breaks out from a six-week flat base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
So far today, ATHM is trading 936,782 shares. Its average daily volume is 740,000 shares.
ATHM's stock gapped higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line. It reached an intraday peak of $96.07.
The stock then drifted back to $92.55 by the early afternoon, but held above its breakpoint line. In the late afternoon, it rallied strongly with a pick up in volume.
Tape Action
ATHM's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $89.34 in the prior session to as high as $95.74 Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,149 shares crossed the tape at $92.20.
That was up from the prior block trade at $89.34 on 33,925 shares.
Near the close a block of 30,340 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $94.61.
That came on an up tick from the prior trade at $94.60 on 100 shares.
Business
ATHM produces online advertising and dealer subscription services in China.
The company, through its Websites, autohome.com.cn and che168.com, and mobile applications, delivers content to automobile buyers and owners.
These services are offered to automakers and dealers, and advertising agencies that represent automakers and dealers..
The Company's autohome.com.cn targets automobile consumers with a focus on new automobiles.
Charts
ATHM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 202% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.
ATHM's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in January of 2014 at $37.40. The stock eventually fell to $20 in 2016.
However, since then ATHM has surged sharply higher. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high.
ATHM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $55 back in December to a peak near $87 by January.
ATHM had a breakout in March after reporting earnings.
However, the move stalled and ATHM formed a base on top of base.
The breakout Tuesday clears all upside resistance.
ATHM's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 43% surge in net to $3.76 a share from the $2.63 the year before.
The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 25. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Looking out to 2019, the Street is predicting a 23% increase in net to $4.62 a share from the anticipated $3.76 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter analysts anticipate a 42% leap in net to 64 cents a share 45 cents the prior year.
Going out to the second quarter, the Street looks for a 24% gain net to 88 cents a share from the 71 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ATHM for a move to $115 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $86.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish ATHM has scored some big wins off recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. ATHM rose 4 times after the past 7 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. ATHM rose an average of 4.9% in April and 1% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
26% |
1/2/2018 |
67.76 |
85.62 |
1/26/2018 |
88% |
5/8/2017 |
35.30 |
66.26 |
8/22/2017 |
50% |
8/4/2014 |
37.12 |
55.87 |
8/25/2014 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Autohome Inc. (ATHM) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FIVE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTAP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OLLI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks as stock market rallies sharply on Chinese tariff news.
AAL, based in Fort Worth, Tex., operates a major airline. Annual revenues: $42 billion. AAL's stock falls sharply Tuesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, AAL is trading 12.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 3.8 million shares.
AAL's stock fell in the morning failing to participate in the stock market's strong rally.
AAL declined to a low of $47.21 by midday. It then trended sideways into the close unable to rally.
Tape Action
AAL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $50.52 in the morning to as low as $47.46.
A key bearish trade came late on Monday when a massive block of 516,374 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $49.82.
That was down from the prior block trade at $50 on 37,000 shares.
Then near the close Tuesday a block of 436,966 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $47.46.
That was down from the prior block at $47.52 on 35,520 shares.
Business
AAL is a network air carrier, providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo.
Together with its regional airline subsidiaries and third-party regional carriers operating as American Eagle, its airline operates an average of nearly 6,700 flights a day to nearly 350 destinations in more than 50 countries.
Its,major hubs are in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington and District of Columbia..
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 22% increase in net to $5.97 a share from the $4.88 the year before.
However, net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to decline 5% to 58 cents a share from the 61 cents the year before.
Charts:
AAL's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key technical support at $48.68 with a big pick up in volume.
AAL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 11% versus a 12% gain for the stock market. However, AAL's stock performance has been deteriorating in recent months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AAL for a decline to $41 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $49.40.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. AAL rose just 3 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. AAL fell an average of 7.2% in April, but rose an average of 2.1% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AAL - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)