Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, April 12 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 11 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 0
Overall Quality of Breakouts -
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - No breakouts today. Stock market falls broadly. Bulls be selective. Market no in a trading range and still vulnerable to more on the downside.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
NONE
(No breakout stocks today. So TTD features a recent breakout play)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
UA, based in Baltimore, makes and sells sports clothes. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. UA's stock, a recent breakout, pushes higher today and is still in good position to be entered. The stock is trading 986,726 shares. Its average daily volume is 820,000 shares. UA is a leaderi in the strong retail apparel sector.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) , a companion firm in the athletic group, broke out recently too. LULU is up 0.59 to 89.30 today.
UA's 60-minute chart shows the stock breaking out several sessions ago. The stock then backed off, but found key technical support near its breakpoint line.
Today the stock rallies nicely to hold its breakout.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks in UA. One can see good accumulation. A key bullish trade today came when a block of 2,200 shares crossed the tape at $72.87.. That was up nicely from the prior block trade at $72.54.
UA makes special moisture-wicking synthetic fabrications. They are made in many different designs and styles for wear in nearly every climate to provide a performance alternative to traditional natural fiber products.
The Company is an official supplier to the National Hockey League, the U.S. Ski Team, USA Rugby, the National Lacrosse League, and Major League Lacrosse,
The company's products are worn by professional football, baseball, and soccer players, as well as athletes in major collegiate and Olympic sports. They are sold in the United States, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom.
UA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 125% compared with a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.
UA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2005 and trading around 22. The stock climbed to a peak of 73 in 2007. However, it was pulled lower by the bear market sinking to 11. It has since made a big comeback. It has been making new all-time highs. If it can hit another new high, it could draw in more buying.
UA's daily chart shows the stock breaking out and over resistance at $70.79. It followed through on its breakout nicely. Then it pulled back but found support at its breakpoint line. That is bullish.
UA's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend and compliments the price action.
This year, analysts forecast a 24% gain in net to $1.66 a share from $1.34 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 41. That is high given the earnings growth rate. So, the stock needs to be watched.
Going out to 2012, the Street projects a 21% gain in net to $2 a share from the $1.66 anticipated for this year.
TTD sees the near term bullish key to the stock being the anticipation of strong profits the next two quarters. Net for the first quarter is expected to be up 36% and for the second quarter 38%.
Net for the first quarter should climb to 19 cents a share from 14 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 22 cents a share. TTD sees very good chances for an upside surprise. The past two quarters, UA topped the consensus estimate by 7 cents a share and 8 cents.
Going out to the second quarter net should jump to 10 cents a share from 7 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD sees UA climbing to 86 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 67. TTD rates UA an average intermediate-term play. There is a chance for a stock split which could boost the stock.
Sponsorship: Very Good. A key buyer recently was 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund which purchased 135,009 shares. Also, 4-star rated SunAmerica Focused Alpha Growth Fund bought 475,329 shares. UA has 51.6 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have done more selling than buying recently. The latest selling was at $66.46. Currently, 22 analysts follow the stock, just 2 have a buy, down from 4 three months ago. Many analysts have turned neutral.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Under Armour Inc. - (UA) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
None
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - The Max
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today as stock market moves lower. Bears be selective. Stock market appears to be now in a trading range with trading opportunities for bears.
WMS, based Waukegan, Il., produces products for the gaming and pinball industries. Annual revenues: $798 million. WMS's stock takes a big hit today falling sharply on heavy volume. The company cut its forecast of earnings for the fiscal third quarter ending March 30. So far today, WMS is trading a hefty 8.3 million shares, 11 times its normal daily volume of 737,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
WMS said earnings for the fiscal third quarter would come in at 40 to 42 cents a share. That was well below the estimate on the Street of 51 cents a share. The company cited lower demand for slot machines. A year ago, WMS earned 49 cents a share.
The company said revenues for the quarter would come in at $191 to $193 million. The Street was looking for $213 million.
WMS's stock fell sharply in the morning on the news. It hit a low intraday of 29.71. The stock was unable to rally after the news.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the wave of selling hitting in the morning. That was demonstrated by a big block bearish trade that crossed at $32.10 on 55,265 shares. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $36.25.
WMS produces gaming and pinball machines and cabinets. The products include video and reel spinning gaming machines and video lottery terminals.
In pinball and cabinets business, they design and manufacture coin-operated pinball games and manufacture cabinets for coin-operated games.
This fiscal year ending June 30 analysts have been forecasting $1.98 a share. That will be lowered. No comparison was available from a year ago.
WMS' daily chart shows the stock working lower. It tried to find a bottom around 34. However, that fails and the stock takes a dive. The downside momentum is strong making the stock vulnerable to institutional selling pressure. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a sharp down trend indicating heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WMS for a decline to 25 within the next few months, or sooner. The stock has strong downside momentum favoring bears. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WMS - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)