Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 9, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Thursday - April 12, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Some interesting plays for aggressive bulls.
Stock market - Bullish Daily market averages. However, weekly Dow and S&P still bearish. Technically, the stock market is trying to form a bottom after recent drop in February. Bulls be conservative.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TNET - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TNET, based in San Leandro, Ca., provides payroll and tax and other services to small to medium-sized businesses. Annual revenues: $3.3 billion. TNET's stock drives higher Thursday and breaks out from a tight, seven-week flat base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. TNET came public in 2014.
TTD highlighted TNET as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
So far today, TNET is trading 529,042 shares. Its average daily volume is 383,000 shares.
TNET shot higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.
Stifel raised its price target on TNET to $59 a share from $54.
TNET reached an intraday high of $50.57 in the morning.
The stock then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
TNET's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $48.14 in the prior session to as high as $50.29 Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,693 shares crossed the tape at $48.66.
That was up from the prior block the day before at $48.14 on 31,538 shares.
Near the close a block of 30,666 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $50.01.
That came on a slight down tick from $50.02 on 285 shares.
Business
TNET services multi-state payroll processing and tax administration, employee benefits programs, including health insurance and retirement plans.
It also handles workers' compensation insurance and claims management and employment and benefit law compliance.
The company provides an HR technology platform with online and mobile tools that allow its clients and their worksite employees to store information.
TNET's clients cover technology, life sciences, financial services, property management, retail, manufacturing and hospitality.
Charts
TNET 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 78% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $1.45 to $10.98 a share. They were sellers at $45 to $46 a share.
TNET's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2014 at $21.37. The stock rose nicely to $38 by early 2015.
However, TNET then fell back to an all-time low of $11.10 by early 2016. However, since then TNET has surged steadily higher and now is at an all-time high.
TNET's daily chart shows the stock rallying from around $40 in February to $48.
It then put down a tight flat base.
Thursday, TNET breaks out with an expansion in volume.
The push to a new high is bullish because there is no upside resistance - except for any insiders.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 30% surge in net to $2.59 a share from the $1.99 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 19. TTD sees that as attractive.
Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts an 11% increase in net to $2.88 a share from the anticipated $2.59 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to leap 40% to 63 cents a share from the 45 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 70 cents a share.
TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise. In the prior quarter, TNET missed by one cent a share. However, in the prior three quarters it topped the Street forecast by 31 cents a share, 25 cents and 13 cents.
Net for the second quarter is expected to rise 17% to 61 cents a share from the 52 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TNET for a move to $60 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $47.50.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. TNET has scored some solid gains off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a strong long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. TNET rose 7 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. TNET rose an average of 5.1% in April and 7.2% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
10% |
7/27/2017 |
45.24 |
50.01 |
Still in play |
24% |
11/2/2017 |
36.03 |
44.76 |
11/30/2017 |
33% |
5/3/2017 |
30.19 |
40.39 |
8/1/2017 |
13% |
2/27/2017 |
26.41 |
29.94 |
3/15/2017 |
19% |
11/14/2016 |
22.09 |
26.32 |
12/22/2016 |
10(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Trinet Group Inc. (TNET) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVEE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CBSH - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MLCO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHRW - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Selected list of shorts. Bears can be venturesome.
TTD's short in the prior session was Fastenal (FAST) at 51.05. Thursday, FAST closed at 50.71, down 0.34.
APOG, based in Minneapolis, Min., produces glass for commercial buildings. $1.1 billion. APOG's stock falls sharply Thursday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, APOG is trading a heavy 3 million shares, 12 times its average daily volume of 255,000 shares.
TTD highlighted APOG as a short at out midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
APOG came in with net for the fourth quarter ended February 2018 net of 96 cents a share. That was 20 cents higher than the Street estimate of 76 cents a share.
However, the stock took a dive on concerns about the outlook this fiscal year
APOG said earnings for fiscal 2019 ending in February would be $3.43 a share to $3.63 a share. Analysts were looking for $3.89 a share.
Tape Action
APOG's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $42.46 in the prior session to as low as $38.05.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 9,000 shares crossed the tape at $40.55.
That was down sharply from the prior block late on Wednesday at $42.46 on 23,298 shares.
Business
APOG makes architectural glass, framing Systems and Large-Scale Optical Technologies.
The architectural glass segment fabricates coated glass used in customized window and wall systems.
The architectural services designs, engineers, fabricates and installs the walls of glass, windows and other curtainwall products making up the outside of commercial buildings.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in February of 2019 analysts were forecasting net of $3.89 a share. The company cut its forecast to $3.43 to $3.63 a share. Some on the Street were looking for $3.75 a share.
Charts:
APOG's daily chart shows the stock cutting sharply below key support. The stock had a gap drop back in December after reporting earnings.
APOG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 35% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were buyers last year ago $8.34 a share. They were sellers earlier this year at $45.46.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting APOG for a decline to $32 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 40.40.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. APOG rose just 1 time after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. APOG declined an average of 1.5% in April but rose an average of 1.2% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APOG - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)