|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 11 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list expands Friday as stock moves modestly higher. Restaurant stocks score well. Bulls be selective. Stock market is now in a well defined trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DDS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
DDS, based in Little Rock, Ark., operates a chain of department stores. Annual revenues: $6.1 billion. DDS's stock breaks out today from a 14-week flat base and hits a 17-year high. The stock has made a sensational come back from its bear market low of 4 back in late 2009. So far today, DDS is trading 1.8 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.2 million shares.
TTD highlighted DDS as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
DDS's daily chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning with a good expansion in intraday volume.
The stock peaked around midday and then trended sideways holding its gain.
Retail apparel stocks have been doing well the past few months as the economy recovers.
DDS's tape action shows the recent big block trades. 
One can see the price of the blocks climbing from $43.17 to $44.80.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 37,864 shares crossed the tape at $43.70. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $43.20.
The tape action showed strong institutional buying interest.
DDS is one of the nation's largest fashion apparel and home furnishings retailers.
The company's stores operate with one name, Dillard's, and span numerous states. DDS's offers a distinctive mix of name brand and private label merchandise, appealing to a broad range of customers. The company is noted for its high quality products. The company also recently announced it will form an REIT.
DDS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 62% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.
DDS's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a multi-year high which is very bullish. The stock is in a strong up trend long-term and could easily draw in more buying from growth-oriented institutions 
DDS' daily chart shows the stock climbing from 24 to 43. The stock then put down a three-month flat base. Today's breakout is impressive coming with a significant widening of the spread.
That shows buyers are moving into the stock aggressively.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned back up, but lags the price of the stock. That shows that buying in the base was soft.
This fiscal year ending January of 2012 analysts forecast a 29% jump in net to $3.13 a share from $2.43 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 14.
Going out to fiscal 2013, net is expected to climb 11% to $3.48 a share.
The company is benefiting from an improvement in the economy. Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending April 30 is expected to climb 32% to 91 cents a share from 69 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 92 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The past two quarters DDS topped consensus estimate by a big margin - 24% and yes 267%.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DDS for a move to 55 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 41 giving it room. TTD rates DDS a slightly above average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Below Average. Many of the top holding funds have been recent sellers. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund with a 10.6% stake. That is big. It was a recent seller of 334,195 a shares. A big seller was Vanguard Selected Value Fund, 4-star rated, which unloaded 1.6 million shares. DDS has 56.1 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $43.13. Just 2 analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating ollars Inc. - (DDS) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 1 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BJRI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BWLD - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DHX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DECK - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Just a few breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies led by the blue chips. Bears be selective.
GOOG, based in Mountain View, Ca., operates a web search engine. Annual revenues: $29.2 million. GOOG's stock gaps lower today after its earnings disappointed some on the Street. So far today, GOOG is trading a heavy 12.2 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 2.6 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
GOOG's stock worked lower in the morning and continued south through the afternoon. The stock was unable to put together a significant rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see heavy institutional selling coming in during the morning.
A big block of 317,688 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape in the morning at $545.68. That was down sharply from the prior block trade that crossed at $578.51.
GOOG reported net for the first quarter rose to $8.08 a share from $6.76 a year ago. The net was slightly below Street estimates of $8.10 a share. The stock was also downgraded by Citigroup.
GOOG operates web sites at many international domains, with the most trafficked being www.google.com.
The company also serves corporate clients, including advertisers, content publishers and site managers with cost-effective advertising and a wide range of revenue generating search services.
This year, analysts forecast a 16% increase in GOOG's net to $30.47 a share from $26.31 a year ago. Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to rise 24%.
GOOG's stock which was a leader has been acting weak lately. GOOG's chart shows the gap drop today on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been bearish for months. TTD sees that as very bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GOOG as a trading short with a move down to 450 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 560.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GOOG - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
