Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, April 15, 2015 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 13, 2015 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list very selective. Bulls be conservative. Stock market remains in trading range. Earnings reports to pick up.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MRTN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
MRTN, based in Mondovi, Wis., provides trucking services in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Annual revenues: $673. MRTN's stock breaks out today from an eight-week flat base. The move carries the stock close to its all-time high. The push higher was triggered by favorable quarterly earnings.
TTD highlighted MRTN as a breakout at our midsession video show on the web Wednesday.
So far today, MRTN is trading 453,265 shares, about four times its average daily volume.
TTD's clip of the tape shows MRTN's stock moving higher in the morning and breaking out from its base.
However, the stock fell back. Then MRTN stabilized and started to work higher through the session. (see 10-minute chart.
The stock then firmed in the final hour to hold its breakout.
MRTN's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $23.35 two sessions ago to as high as $24.73.
A key bullish trade came in the prior session when a block of 50,000 shares crossed the tape at $23.61.
That was up from the prior block trade in the prior session at $23.35 on 6,8000 shares.
Then on Wednesday a key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,079 shares crossed at $24.66. That was up sharply from the prior block at $23.95 on 4,009 shares.
MRTN operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers. It operates through four segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Intermodal, and Brokerage.
The Truckload segment transports food and other consumer packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment.
The Dedicated segment provides transportation solutions to individual customers using temperature-controlled trailers, dry vans, and other specialized equipment.
The Intermodal transports its customers' freight utilizing temperature-controlled trailers and dry containers on railroad flatcars for portions of trips, as well as using tractors and contracted carriers.
The company operates a fleet of 2,420 tractors, including 2,368 company-owned tractors and 52 tractors supplied by independent contractors.
MRTN's 3-year performance chart shows the stock appreciating 70% versus a 45% gain for the S&P 500 (see performance chart).
One can see in 2015 good insider buying. That is bullish.
MRTN's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a peak back in 2006 at 16. The stock then trended mostly in a trading range the next few years.
Then in 2013, MRTN broke out to the upside and raced to a peak of 25.71 in 2014. The stock then pulled back, but is now coming on again.
MRTN's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 19 back in November to a peak near 23 by February.
The stock then put down a flat base.
Today, it breaks out to the upside with a widening of the daily spread (range from high to low). That is bullish.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend showing good underlying buying.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 26% jump in profits to $1.13 a share from 89 cents a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking ahead to 2016, the Street projects a 13% rise in profits to $1.27 a share from the anticipated $1.13 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should rise 22% to 29 cents a share from 24 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 32 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise. The company surpassed the Street estimate the past two quarters by 2 cents a share. (See table)
Going out to the third quarter, profits are expected to climb 27% to 29 cents a share from 23 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MRTN for a move to 30 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 22.50.
TTD rates MRTN an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund buyer recently was the 5-star rated Hodges Small Cap Retail Fund which purchased 700,000 shares as a new position. It has a 2.1% stake.
MRTN has 33.5 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 66% of the stock and insiders 29%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options at $11.60 to $11.90. They were recant light sellers around $23.
Right now, 6 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, down from 5 three months ago. MRTN has a book value of $11.61.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Marten Transport Ltd. - (MRTN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DEPO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMSG - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MHLD - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AFG - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Just two breakdown stocks today. Stock market rises with aid of rebound oil sector. Bears be conservative.
ASML, based in Netherlands, makes technology systems for the semiconductor industry. Annual revenues; $6.3 billion. ASML's stock breaks down today after the company cut its revenue outlook. So far today, ASML is trading 3.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 1.2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted ASML as a short at our midsession video show on the web.
ASML's stock rose slightly in the morning, but then turned lower.
The stock fell quickly to an intraday low of 96.02 in the morning.
The stock then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.
ASML's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $100.24 to as low as $96.60.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 16,733 shares (duplicated) traded at $100.06.
That was up from the prior block trade at $100.24 on 30,000 shares.
ASML reported higher net for the first quarter. However, it made a forecast for the second quarter of 1.6 billion euros. That was below the Street expectation of 1.64 billion euros. That news was taken bearishly by the market.
ASML sells complex integrated circuits. The systems are used by global semiconductor manufacturers to create chips that power a electronic, communications and information technology products.
This year, analysts are forecasting 34% increase in ASML's earnings to $4.26 a share from $3.17 a year ago.
However, net for the second quarter is expected to decline 16% to $1.04 a share from $1.24 a year ago.
ASML's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key support with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ASML for a decline to 86 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 100. TTD sees ASML as a trading short.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ASML - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)