Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, April 17, 2013
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, April 17, 2013 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 15, 2013 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 1
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Only one breakout, a laggard. Bulls be conservative and watchful. Stock market showing a lot of distribution within overall up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AVP - BELOW AVERAGE |
AVP, based in New York, produces cosmetics and beauty products. Annual revenues: $10.7 billion. AVP's stock breaks out today from a 10-week flat base. Although the stock has been a laggard, earnings growth is expected to be strong the next two years. 
So far today, AVP is up modestly. Volume is running at a heavy 6.9 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 3.3 million shares. The heavy volume on a big down day in the stock market is very bullish for AVP's stock.
AVP's 10 minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the early afternoon. The move came with a good pick up in intraday volume. That shows buyers were willing to step up even with the stock market down sharply. 
AVP's tape action shows the recent block trades.
AVP's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $21 in the morning to a peak of $21.58 by late in the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 50,000 shares crossed the tape at $21.15. That was up from the prior block at $21.
There was big block of 182,429 shares that crossed near the close at $21.56. Interestingly, that trade was on an up tick from the $21.55 price for the prior trade at 100 shares. So, the tape showed solid accumulation. 
AVP is a major producer of beauty products.
They include cosmetics, fragrance and toiletries.
It also sells jewelry, accessories and apparel.
Some of its other products are gift and decorative and home entertainment products.
AVP's 12-month performance chart shows the stock off 4% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index. However, one can see from AVP performance line the stock has been doing very well so far this year.
AVP's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 20 back in 2001 to a peak of 46.65 in 2004. The stock then fell back to around 25 in 2005, but then rallied back to 45 by 2008.
However, the bear market took its toll on the stock sending it down to 15 by early 2009. It again rallied this time to around 35 by late 2009. The stock then took another dive back to around 15. It is now starting to turn up. The stock's long-term performance has been radical.
AVP's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 14 in December to 21 by February.
The stock set up a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line. So, near-term the stock is showing good strength.
AVP's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now working higher.
TTD sees the key to AVP being its strong earnings outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 22% increase in net to $1.04 a share from 85 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as attractive for value investors.
Going out to 2014, earnings are projected to climb 27% to $1.33 a share from the anticipated $1.04 this year.
AVP should rack up a strong first quarter.
Analysts are looking for a 40% jump in net to 14 cents a share from 10 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 18 cents a share. AVP has shown an erratic earnings report performance versus the Street's expectations. 
For the second quarter, net should rise 21% to 24 cents a share from 20 cents a year before.
Strategy Opinion: Although AVP is a laggard, the stock's setup shows promise for a push higher. It does have overhead resistance.
TTD is targeting AVP for a move to 26. A protective stop can be placed near 20. TTD rates AVP an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. Some top funds recent buyers. The 5-star rated Mutual Global Discovery Z Fund was a recent buyer of 3.4 million shares.
The largest fund holder is 3-star rated American Funds Washington Mutual A which purchased 2.5 million shares. It has a 4.6% stake.
AVP has 432 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 89% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bullish. Insiders were cent buyers around $15.50 using stock options and at $19.53 as an outright purchase. They were sellers at $19.47. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, up from 3 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Avon Products Inc. - (AVP) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 10 | 1 | 3 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
None
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdown stocks today as stock market falls sharply. Bears can be venturesome.
AAPL, based in Cupertino, Ca., makes computers, iphone and ipads. Annual revenues: $165 million. AAPL's stock, a former big market leader, breaks further to the downside and sets off another TTD short signal. So far today, AAPL is trading 27.8 million shares, about double its normal daily volume of 12.9 million shares. 
TTD highlighted AAPL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday. TTD pointed out that AAPL will have lower quarterly earnings.
The stock fell in the morning and hit an intraday low at 398.11 around midday. In the afternoon, AAPL has been trending sideways.
TTD highlighted AAPL as a short back in October when it was around 620.
The stock's tape action shows heavy institutional selling pressure. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $426.24 on Tuesday to as low as $402.87 Wednesday. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 117,294 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $420.26.
AAPL makes personal computers, and portable digital music players.
The company's products include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems.
It also has an iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, retail stores and via direct sales and resellers.
For the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending in March, analysts forecast a 16% decline in AAPL's earnings to $10.35 from $12.30 a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $12. The past two quarters AAPL topped the consensus by 37 cents a share and in the previous quarter came in 12 cents below the consensus.
AAPL's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key technical support with expanding volume. Back in June, AAPL had a gap drop. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a clear down trend showing consistent selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AAPL for a decline to 340 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 412.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AAPL - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
