Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Wednesday, April 19, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 17, 2017 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - April 19, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 21
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts Wednesday even though stock market is mixed. Bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market: IBM's big drop pulls Dow and S&P lower. However, Nasdaq moves higher. Dow Weekly turns bearish.
Stock Market Momentum
(Based on 14 unit moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CABO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CABO, based in Phoenix, provides data, video and voice services. Annual revenues: $820 million. CABO breaks out Wednesday from a 13-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
So far today, CABO is trading 89,089 shares, double its average daily volume of 37,000 shares.
TTD highlighted the stock as an accumulation play in early April.
CABO's stock rose steadily in the morning and broke out. It reached an intraday high of $660.12 around noon.
The stock then pulled back and trended sideways in the afternoon. (see 10-minute chart)
Tape Action
CABO's tape action shows the recent block trades. They are small due in part to the high price of the stock.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $635.87 in the prior session to as high as $656.50 in the morning.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 547 shares crossed the tape at $639.70.
That was up from the prior block trade of $635.87 on 1,189 shares.
Business
CABO offers residential video services, data services and voice services.
It also handles business Services and Advertising.
CABO provided data, video and voice services in 19 Western, Midwestern and Southern states.
The company provides the broadband services to residential and business customers in more than 35 cable systems covering over 400 cities and towns.
Charts
CABO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 45% versus a 13% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have been getting stock options in recent months. The price was not disclosed and they have not used them. The latest insider selling took place back in May of last year at $484 a share.
CABO's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2015 at $450.48.
The stock fell back to $380. It then went into a consolidation and finally broke out in early 2016.
The stock climbed to a peak of 649.79 earlier this year. The new high Wednesday keeps the stock on very bullish track.
CABO's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $560 in early January to a peak near $648 by late January.
The stock put down a flat base.
The breakout is strong coming with expanding volume and a widening of the daily spread (range from high to low showing ease of price movement through upside resistance.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is very bullish complimenting the price action.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 34% increase in net to $22.93 from $17.14 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 27. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking out to 2018, the Street is predicting a modest 5% rise in net to $24.02 from the anticipated $22.93 this year.
Net for the next two quarters will show a modest acceleration in growth.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should rise 24% to $5.74 a share from the $4.65 a year ago.
For the second quarter, profits are expected to climb 28% to $5.93 a share from the $4.62 in the prior year.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CABO for a move to $750 after a breakout and within the next few months.
A protective stop can be placed near $620 after a breakout.
TTD rates CABO a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Good. CABO tends to score modest gains off its breakouts. However, it is in a solid long-term up trend and that increases the probability of success.
Probability - Earnings Response - Good. CABO has moved higher 3 out of the past 5 earnings reports where there was significant movement. The stock some times will show little change after earnings.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Good. CABO has moved higher the past five years in April, May and June. The gains per month was 3.2%, 7.1% and 6%..
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
3% |
12/1/2016 | 601.62 | 623.87 | 12/21/2016 |
13% |
9/2/2016 | 549.98 | 623.53 | 12/16/2016 |
21% |
7/6/2016 | 514.65 | 623.53 | 12/16/2016 |
13% | 4/22/2016 | 452.14 | 511.84 | 6/2/2016 |
10% | 11/6/2015 | 445.03 | 490.48 | 11/10/2015 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LRCX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CDNS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RGEN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MTD - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Wednesday. Bears be conservative. Stock market still in an overall up trend long-term.
LBY, based in Toledo, Ohio, makes and sells tableware products. Annual revenues: $796 million. LBY's stock falls sharply Wednesday after saying it expects a loss for the first quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted LBY as a short at our midsession video show on the web Wednesday.
So far today, LBY is trading a heavy 1.1 million shares, 11 times its average daily volume of 103,000 shares.
The company forecast a loss of $6 to $8 million for the first quarter. That compares with a profit of $700,000 a yea ago.
It said profitability was impacted by competition.
LBY's stock gapped lower in the morning. It fell to $10.56 in the morning.
The stock then trended sideways into the afternoon. It weakened near the close.
Tape Action
LBY's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $14.16 two sessions ago to $10.42 on Wednesday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 17,499 shares crossed the tape at $12.50.
That was down sharply from the prior significant block trade at $13.93 on Monday.
Business
LBY sells its glass products in the U.S., Canada, Latin America; Europe, the Middle East and Africa .
The U.S. & Canada segment includes sales of manufactured and sourced tableware having an end market destination in the U.S. and Canada.
Glass products for original equipment manufacturers are made in Latin America.
Earnings:
The Street is forecasting a first quarter loss of 5 cents a share compared with a profit of 16 cents the year before.
The loss could be more when it is reported.
For the year, analysts have been forecasting a profit of $1 a share. The estimate was as high as $1.16 a share.
Charts:
LBY's daily chart shows the stock falling back in February after an earnings report. (highlight in yellow). The stock then trended sideways. Now, it breaks down again with big volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is very bearish.
LBY's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 42% versus a 15% gain in the stock market.
The stock has a tendency to decline prior to reporting its earnings.
Insiders were recently light buyers around $13. They are underwater.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LBY for a decline to $8 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $11.50.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of LBY's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bearish. Stock rose just 4 times out of the past 11 earnings reports where there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Very Beaerish. LBY declined an average of 5.4% in the past five Aprils. It rose 0.9% in May.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LBY - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)