Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, April 21
|
Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, April 21 |
|
Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, April 19 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday April 19 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - April 21Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
-
Tuesday
-
Wednesday
-
Thursday
-
Friday
|
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 15
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list expands today with some very good plays. That takes place against a backdrop of a flat stock market today. Bulls can be venturesome.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VSI - AVERAGE |
VSI, based in North Bergen, N.J., sells vitamins, minerals, herbs, supplements, sports nutrition, and other health and wellness products. Annual revenues: $674 million. VSI's stock breaks out strongly today from a 4-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new high. VSI came public in October of last year. So far today, VSI is trading 771,542 shares, six times its normal daily volume of 126,000 shares. 
VSI's breakout came early in the session (see 10-minute chart). The stock continued to move higher and peaked around 1 p.m. In the afternoon, VSI drifted back.
The driver for the breakout was a report of strong fist quarter net.
VSI checked in with a first quarter profit of 31 cents a share, up from 12 cents a year ago.
The 31 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 27 cents and the highest estimate of 28 cents a share.
TTD has noted when a company can top the highest quarterly estimate, the stock has good chances of moving higher the next few weeks. 
Comparable first quarter sales rose 6.2%.
VSI's tape action shows the recent big block trades. There were two key block trades. The first was a big block of 165,000 shares that traded at $23.87. That was up from the prior block trade that went off at $23.75 on 100,000 shares.
The second key trade was a big block of 20,000 share that crossed at $24.60. That was up sharply from the prior block trade. It showed aggressive institutional buying interest.
The company sells 700 different brands, as well as its Vitamin Shoppe, BodyTech and MD Select brands.
It offers variety of products among VMS retailers with approximately 8,000 stock keeping units offered in its typical store and an additional 12, 000 SKUs available through its Internet and other direct sales channels.
The Company sells its products through retail and direct approach. In retail segment, it has 169 stores. It also sells through its websites, primarily www.vitaminshoppe.com, and its catalog.
VSI's six month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 32% versus 11% for the S&P 500 index. Of course, the big push in the stock came Wednesday and Tuesday.
VSI's long-term chart covers just a few months. However, the stock has pushed to a new high, which is very bullish. The stock could well draw in buying from the new-high crowd on Thursday.
VSI's daily chart shows the stock's gap move higher. The structure of the base has the look of a flat base, but also a bit of a double bottom setup. The two key lows were made around 20.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend. Note the up trend continued even when the stock's price was stuck in a sideways pattern through late March and April. That shows subtle accumulation.
This year, analysts forecast a 132% surge in VSI's earnings to 88 cents a share from 38 cents a year ago. There is a good chance this year's forecast will be boosted.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 28.
Next year, the Street projects a 35% gain in net to $1.19 a share from the anticipated 88 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: VSI is one of those "post bear market IPO stocks." The stock has the numbers to do well. TTD is targeting VSI for a move to 30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 23. TTD rates VSI a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Oppenheimer Discovery Fund. It was a recent buyer of 365,280 shares. Another key buyer recently was Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Value Fund which picked up 89,700 shares. VSI has 26.8 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have not been active this year. Six analysts follow the stock and all six have a strong buy. Wow!
Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Vitamin Shoppe Inc. - (VSI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TPX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TUP - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EPAY - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTCT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Still only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears remain patient and conservative. TTD's short play from Tuesday was AK Steel holding Corp. (AKS) - 19.57, down 1.26. Today, AKS has fallen to 18.73 and is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
CSIQ, based in Changshu Suzhou, makes solar cell and module products that convert sunlight into electricity. Annual revenues: $663 million. CSIQ's stock falls sharply today due to worry about earnings after a comment by the company about margins. So far today, CSIQ is trading 6.7 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 2.5 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
CSIQ's stock fell in the morning and continued to trend lower through the day. In the afternoon, it had touched a low of $17.95.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the block working lower from $21.10 to $18.50. A key trade came at the opening today when a big block of 66,384 shares (duplicated) traded at $19.34. That was well below the prior block trade at $21.10.
The tape action signaled heavy instutional selling pressure.
CSIQ said that gross margins for the first quarter were 13% to 13.5%. That was well below Wall Street expectations. The inference is that profits will be below expectations.
The Street has been forecasting first quarter net of 52 cents a share compared with a loss of 13 cents a year ago. The lowest estimate on the Street is at 36 cents a share.
CSIQ does all its manufacturing operations in China. Its products include solar modules built to general specifications for use in residential, commercial and industrial solar power generation systems.
The company also designs specialty solar modules based on its customers’ requirements. Specialty solar modules are used in solar-powered bus stop lighting, and solar-powered car battery chargers. It sells its products under its Canadian Solar brand name.
This year, the Street is forecasting a 40% jump in net to $1.97 a share from $1.41 a year ago. Weak results could cause analysts to cut earnings projections.
CSIQ's chart shows the stock gapping lower today and undercutting key technical support with expanding volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is extremely bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) shows selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CSIQ for a drop to 14.50. A protective stop buy can be placed near 19.50.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
