Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 16 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - April 23Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
-
Tuesday
-
Wednesday
-
Thursday
-
Friday
|
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 1
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Only one breakout stock today. Stock market still in a trading range. Bulls be selective and watchful of all stops. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EAT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
EAT, based in Dallas, operates and franchises restaurants. Annual revenues: $2.8 billion. EAT's stock breaks out today from an eight-week flat base as it responds bullishly from strong quarterly earnings. So far today, EAT is trading a heavy 7.1 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 1.5 million shares. The stock is a leader in the restaurant sector.
TTD highlighted EAT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
EAT's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning on strong volume off the earnings news.
The stock then continued to work higher into the afternoon ignoring the stock market's overall decline.
EAT reported net for the fiscal third quarter March 30 jumped to 60 cents a share from 47 cents a year ago. The results exclude special items. The 60 cents topped the consensus estimate of 56 cents a share and the highest estimate on the Street of 59 cents. TTD has said that when a company can top the highest estimate and respond bullishly, the stock has the potential to move higher for a few more weeks.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks working higher from $27.90 on Friday to as high as $30.88. A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 58,423 shares crossed the tape at $30. That was up from the prior block trade at $27.90.
EAT either owns, operates or franchises restaurants.
They operate as Chili's Grill & Bar, Romano's Macaroni Grill, On The Border Mexican Grill & Cantina, Maggiano's Little Italy, Cozymel's Coastal Grill, Corner Bakery Cafe, Big Bowl Asian Kitchen, and Rockfish Seafood Grill.
EAT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 22 versus a 3% gain for the S&P 500 index.
EAT's long-term chart going back to 1993, almost 20-years, shows the stock trading around $5. It climbed steadily over the years peaking at $35.74 in early 2007. The stock then took a nasty dive back to $3.88 in 2008. However, it has since made a steady comeback with a ninefold move.
EAT's daily charts shows the stock in flat base. Today, it gaps higher with a widening of the trading spread (range from high to low) and an expansion in volume.
So, the breakout is technically very strong.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend.
This fiscal year ending June of 2012, analysts forecast a 23% jump in EAT's earnings to $1.88 a share from $1.52 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 16. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending in June should rise 16% to 56 cents a share from 48 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 59 cents a share.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2013 ending in June, analysts forecast a 16% improvement in profits to $2.18 a share from the anticipated $1.88 this fiscal year.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting EAT for a move to 38 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 28. TTD rates EAT an average intermediate-term play most suitable for conservative investors.
Sponsorship: Good. Some key buying and selling in the stock by funds. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund with an 8.9% stake. It was a recent seller of 700,000 shares.
However, 5-star rated ING Midcap Opportunities Fund was a recent buyer of 506,000 shares. It has a 0.64% stake. EAT has 78.5 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at around $17. They sold at $28.57. Right now , 14 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, down from 5 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Brinker International Inc. - (EAT) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
None
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdown stocks today. Bears be selective as stock market is still in a trading range. TTD's short from Monday was Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) at $5.68. It is now trading at $5.49
HMIN, based in china, operates an economy hotel chain in China. Annual revenues: $588 million. HMIN's stock falls sharply today undercutting key technical support. The drop today causes a resumption of the stock's down trend. So far today, HMIN is trading 678,251 shares. Its average daily volume is 408,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
HMIN's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $24.12. The stock then had a slight bounce up but then faded in the afternoon. The stock is now trading near its low for the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the big block declining from $26 to $24.58. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 58,500 shares crossed the tape at $24.61. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $25.15.
The tape action showed heavy institutional distribution.
HMIN's hotels are spread through China. It is one of the best-known economy hotel brands in China.
This year, analysts forecast a 56% drop in HMIN's earnings to 65 cents a share from $1.47 a year ago. For the upcoming first quarter, the Street is looking for a loss of 10 cents a share compared with a loss of 4 cents a year ago.
HMIN's chart shows the stock trying to hold support near 25 three times in the past several months. However, today the stock cuts below that support opening the door for more on the downside. The stock's accumulation - distribution line bottom of the chart is in a down trend. That reveals consistent selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HMIN for a decline to 19 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 26.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HMIN - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)