Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday. April 23, 2014 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 21, 2013 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list showing some good plays with strong earnings. Airline stocks breaking out. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market still in trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SKX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
SKX, based near Los Angeles, makes and sells athletic shoes and casual shoes. Annual revenues: $1.9 billion. SKX's stock breaks out today from an 11-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a three-year high. The big advance was sparked by strong than expected earnings for the first quarter.
TTD highlighted SKX as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
SKX reported earnings for the first quarter of 61 cents a share, up from 13 cents a share a year ago.
The 61 cents topped the consensus estimate of 33 cents a share and the highest estimate on the Street of 35 cents a share.
As TTD has pointed out when a company tops the highest estimate by a good margin the stock tends to move higher off the news and for the next few weeks.
SKX's 10-minute chart shows the stock sprinting higher in the morning. The stock hit an intraday peak of 41.72.
The stock then pulled back in the morning as the stock market weakened.
SKX then proceeded to trend sideways the rest of the session showing some strength near the close.
SKX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $36.60 to as high as $41.50.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 88,596 shares crossed the tape $41.50.
That was up sharply from the prior block trade at 36.87 on 21,679 shares.
The tape did show some institutional profit taking late in the day.
SXK designs and sells Skechers-branded footwear for men, women and children, and performance footwear for men and women under the Skechers GO brand name.
The company's core consumers are style-conscious 12 to 24 year-old men and women attracted to SKX'sdesigns.
Its brands are sold through department and specialty stores, athletic and independent retailers, and boutiques as well as catalog and internet retailers.
The Company operates 122 concept stores, 131 factory outlet stores and 71 warehouse outlet stores in the United States, and 44 concept stores and 26 factory outlets internationally.
SKX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 70% versus a 19% gain for the S&P 500 index. One can see insider buying taking place in January right before a strong earnings report and a move higher in the stock.
SKX's long-term chart shows the stock with a very cyclical pattern. The stock fell from a peak of 38 in 2007, the top in the prior bull market to $5 in the following bear market. The stock then turned and rallied to an all-time high of 44 in 2010.
SKX then fell back again. This time to 11 by early 2012. Since then the stock has been making another comeback and has climbed to 39.
SKX's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 27 in February to a peak near 36 by mid-February.
The stock then formed a flat base. It attempted a breakout in early April but faded back.
However, the breakout today is strong coming with a gap move, big volume and strong earnings.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) compliments the price of the stock.
This year, analysts are forecasting a robust 68% surge in profits to $1.81 a share from $1.08 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth outlook. So, the stock has appeal to value-growth investors.
Looking out to 2015, profits are projected to climb 31% to $2.36 a share from $1.81 expected this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is projected to surge 157% to 36 cents a share from 14 cents a share a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 41 cents a share.
Going out to the third quarter, the Street looks for a 48% jump in profits to 78 cents a share from 53 cents a share the year before.
Strategy Opinion: SKX's powerful earnings should be the key driver to send the stock racing higher. TTD is targeting SKX for a move to 47.
A protective stop can be placed near 36.
TTD rates SKX an excellent intermediate-term play provided it meets earnings expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is the 5-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 6.3% stake. It has held its position steady.
A key fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Discovery Fund which purchased 30,500 shares.
SKX has 50.8 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 75% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bullish. Insiders have been getting stock options. They have done no selling yet. Currently, 4 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Skechers USA Inc. - (SKX) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SWKS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALK - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RHI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DAL - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Just a few shorts as stock market backs off a bit. Bears remain conservative. TTD's short on Tuesday was Pentair Ltd. (PNR) at 75.29. Today, PNR is trading at 75.21.
FDML, based in Southfield, Mich., makes powertrain and other products for the auto, rail and off-road industries. Annual revenues: $6.8 billion. FDML's stock gaps lower today and undercuts key technical support. The drop was triggered when the company's earnings did not meet Wall Street expectations.
FDML reported earnings for the first quarter were 27 cents a share compared with a loss of 34 cents a year ago.
The 27 cents a share, however, was below the 33 cent a share forecast on the Street.
FDML's stock was highlighted as a short at TTD's video show on the Web Wednesday.
FDML's stock gapped lower in the morning and hit an intraday low of 16.26.
The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
FDML's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $18.58 in the prior session to as low as $16.37 on Wednesday.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 7,396 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $17.53. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $18.57 on 16,146 shares (duplicated.
FDML is a supplier of powertrain, chassis and safety technologies for automotive, light commercial, heavy-duty, agricultural, marine, rail, off-road and industrial vehicles.
FDML's earnings for the second quarter are expected to decline 27% to 40 cents a share from 55 cents a year ago.
FDML's daily chart shows the stock gapping below technical support with expanding volume.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FDML for a decline to 14 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 17.60.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FDML - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)