Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 25 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list several interesting high-earnings growth plays. Bulls be selective. Stock market in near-term up trend. Earnings continue to be a key now.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APKT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
APKT, based in Burlington, Ma., provides telecom services to business needing voice and video communications. Annual revenues: $231 million. APKT breaks out today from a six-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is very bullish in that APKT no longer has any "overhead resistance." APKT came public in late 2006 and traded at 18 at that time..
TTD highlighted APKT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
So far today, APKT is trading a heavy 3.2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.2 million shares.
APKT's 10-minute chart shows the stock clearing its breakpoint in the morning with a spike move higher. The stock then pulled back and trended sideways comfortably above its breakpoint.
APKT will report earnings soon. The Street is forecasting a 53% jump in net to 20 cents a share from 13 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 21 cents a share. A report above that could be very bullish.
TTD's clip of the tape shows APKT's recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $75.50 a few sessions ago to a peak of $79.53.
A key trade took place in the morning. That is when a big block of 30,000 shares crossed the tape at $79.53. That was well above the prior block trade at $77.06.
The tape showed aggressive institutional buying.
APKT provides session border controllers that enable service providers, enterprises, government agencies and contact centers to deliver interactive communications, such as voice, video and other real-time multimedia sessions, across Internet protocol network borders.
The company’s Net-Net product supports a range of communications applications at multiple network border points and also supports service architectures, such as IP Multimedia Subsystem .
The company’s Net-Net family of products consists of the Net-Net OS software platform, the 2600, 3800, 4250, 4500 and 9200 platforms; 4500 Advanced Telecommunications Computing Architecture blade; and Element Management System.
APKT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 275% versus a 16% gain for the S&P 500 index.
APKT's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2006 and trading around 18. The stock was dragged lower by the bear market sinking to $2.90 in late 2008. Since then APKT's stock has been driving higher. It is one of the big winners so far in this bull market.
APKT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 35 to 78 peaking in February. It then formed a well-defined flat base bracketed between 65 and 78.
Most of the basing work has been done above a rising 50-day moving average line.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That shows there has not been any subtle selling going on as of yet. So, the upside for APKT still looks promising.
This year, analysts forecast APKT's net will climb 36% to 88 cents a share from 65 cents a year ago. Analysts have been lifting their estimates.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 88. That is high. So the stock should be watched carefully.
Going out to 2012, Wall Street projects a 39% gain in net to $1.22 a share from the anticipated 88 cents this year.
The Street is looking for a 52% jump in net for the first quarter. Net for the second quarter should climb 33% to 20 cents a share from 15 cents a year ago. The company is benefiting from new products and services.
Strategy Opinion : TTD is targeting APKT for a move to 95 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 74 which is tight. The stock has a beta of 1.56 versus 1.0 for the stock market. TTD rates APKT an average intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations. The valuation right now is high. So, the stock is most suitable for an aggressive investor.
Sponsorship: Excellent. One of the largest fund buyers recently was Fidelity Contrafund, 5-star rated, which purchased 114,600 shares. It is the largest fund holder at 3.6%. 4-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund was a recent purchaser of 240,000 shares. It is the second largest fund holder with a 2.7% stake. APKT has 65.8 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers of the stock. The most recent selling was at $70.86. Twelve analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, up from just 7 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Netapp Inc. - (NTAP) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PLCM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CYOU - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ADSK - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market is mixed. Bears remain selective.
AVID, based in Tewksbury, Ma., produces software for editing digital media content. Annual revenues: $689 million. AVID's stock gaps lower today in heavy trading. The company reported a disappointing loss for the quarter. So far today, AVID is trading 1 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 142,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
AVID reported for the a loss for the first quarter that was more than the Street expected. The company posed a loss of 9 cents a share compared with a loss of 21 cents a share a year. Some on the Street were looking for a profit.
AVID's stock gapped lower and hit an intraday low of $17.85. The stock then lifted and trended sideways the rest of the day. It was unable to mount a significant rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $21.51 to as a low as $19.07.
A key bearish trade was a block of 17,306 shares, duplicated, that crossed at $19.07. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $21.
The company's systems are designed to improve the productivity of video and film editors by enabling them to edit moving pictures and sound in a faster, easier, and more cost-effective manner than traditional analog tape-based systems.
This year, Wall Street was looking for a profit of 55 cents a share, up 83% from the 36 cents a share a year ago. That forecast may get cut.
For the upcoming second quarter, analysts forecast a loss of one cent a share.
AVID's chart shows the stock climbing recently from 12 to 22. It then formed a base. However, today's gap drop comes as a big surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AVID for a decline to 14.30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 20.50.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AVID - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)