Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Tuesdsay, April 25, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 24, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted around 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - TuesdayGo to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
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Tuesday - April 25, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 35
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large number of breakout stocks with some good quality plays. Bulls can be aggressive. However, earnings will continue to flow in and so they need to be watched closely.
Stock market - Bullish. All major indicators are now in up trends.
Stock Market Momentum
(Based on 14 unit moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NFLX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NFLX, based in Los Gatos, Ca., is an Internet television network with some 86 million members in over 190 countries. NFLX's stock, a long-term leader, breaks out Tuesday from a 12 -week flat base. The stock hits an all-time high. That is very bullish.
So far today, NFLX is trading a heavy 20.7 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 6.6 million shares.
NFLX moved sharply higher late in the day on news it will be able to stream it shows in China. IQIYI, a streaming unit with 500 million users, will offer Netflix content. IQIYI is owned by Baidu Inc. (BIDUI)
Baidu was up 6.96 to 186.99.
NFLX's stock rose steadily during the day and cleared its breakpoint line in the morning. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock reached an intraday peak of $153.52 around noon.
NFLX then trended mostly sideways in the afternoon, with one intraday shakeout to the downside.
One can see NFLX breaking out through a breakpoint zone.
Tape Action
NFLX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $143.83 in the prior session to as high as $152.16 Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning at the opening when a block of 136,452 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $147.38.
That was up from the prior block trade at $143.83 on 29,000 shares.
Near the close a massive block 528,474 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $152.16.
That came on an up tick from the prior block trade at $149 on 24,500 shares.
NFLX Business
NFLX produces viewing for subscribers via television shows and movies. They cover original series, documentaries and feature films.
Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on nearly any Internet-connected screen.
Members can play, pause and resume watching, all without commercials.
NFLX Charts
NFLX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 62% the past 12-months versus the 18% gain for the stock market.
NFLX has been gaining ground in recent months.
Insiders were heavy buyers recently using stock options that range from $3.08 a share to $48.83. They were sellers from $139 to $146.
On April 20, CEO Hastings Reed bought 91,994 shares at $3.08 using stock options. The cost $284,00.
He sold all the stock the same day at $139.89 to $141.46 making a profit of $12.7 million.
NFLX's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from around $5 in 2009 to a peak at $43.54 in 2011.
The stock then fell back to $7.54 in 2012.
However, since then NFLX has surged higher. It is now at an all-time high. .
NFLX's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $123 back in December to a peak near $146.
The stock then formed a flat base. It attempted a breakout in March, but faded.
Tuesday's breakout is more robust.
It comes with a widening of the daily spread an big pickup in volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.
NFLX's Earnings
This year, analysts are forecasting NFLX's earnings will soar 138% to $1.02 a share from 43 cents a year before.
The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 149. That is high.
However, it is okay given the earnings growth for this year. Also, the China deal could cause analyst to raise estimates.
Going out to 2018, the Street projects a 93% surge in profits to $1.97 a share from the anticipated $1.02 this year.
Quarterly earnings growth will be strong.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to climb 64% to 15 cents a share from 9 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 17 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise The company topped the consensus the past four quarters.
Profits for the third quarter should leap 79% to 21 cents a share from 12 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NFLX for a move to $180. A protective stop can be placed near $144 after a breakout.
TTD rates NFLX a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Above Average - NFLX has scored some sensational gains after breaking out. The stock is a leader. It has soared from $20 back in 2013 to $146.
Probability - Earnings Response - Average - NFLX has moved higher 6 out of the past 10 earnings reports where there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Above Average - NFLX's seasonal chart shows the stock gaining an average of 6% in April the past five years and a tremendous 15.1% in May.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
17% |
12/27/2016 | 126.31 | 148.06 | 3/30/2017 |
47% |
10/3/2016 | 100.16 | 148.06 | 3/30/2017 |
9% |
11/17/2015 | 115.96 | 126.81 | 12/3/2015 |
81% |
4/16/2015 |
69.68 |
126.45 |
8/6/2015 |
89% |
4/17/2013 | 28.37 | 53.67 |
12/20/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Netflix Inc. - (NFLX) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KMG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ROP- ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TREE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DOOR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts Tuesday as stock market rallies strong for the second straight session. However, Gold stocks have turned down hard.
ABX, based in Toronto, is a gold mining company. Annual revenues: $8.6 billion. ABX's stock falls sharply Tuesday after reporting disappointing earnings for the first quarter. TTD sees more on the downside, especially since gold stocks have lagged.
So far today, ABX is trading a heavy 51.4 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 11 million shares.
The company reported net for the first quarter of 14 cents a share. That was below the 21 cents expected by Wall Street.
The stock fell steadily in the morning and touched an a low near $17.
It then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day with a little nitch down to $16.86 to mark its low for the day.
Tape Action
ABX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks sinking from $19.04 in the prior session to as low as $16.87.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 276,282 shares crossed the tape at $18.12. That was down from the prior block at $19.04 on 354,204 shares.
Business
ABX produces gold and copper. Some of ABX's gold mines include Goldstrike, Cortez, Pueblo Viejo, Lagunas Norte, Veladero, Turquoise Ridge, Acacia Mining plc, Pascua-Lama and others.
The company, through its subsidiary, Acacia, owns gold mines in Africa.
It also holds interest in gold mines, including Porgera and Kalgoorlie, and copper mines, such as Zaldivar and Lumwana. The Pascua-Lama project is located on the border between Chile and Argentina.
The Company has nine producing gold mines in Canada, the United States, Peru, Argentina, Australia and the Dominican Republic.
Earnings:
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 36% increase in net to 95 cents a share from 70 cents in the prior year.
However, with the quarterly miss, the estimates should come down. Net for the second quarter is expected to leap 73% and in the third quarter be up only 1%.
Charts:
ABX was a $50 stock back in 2012. It declined steadily to touch a low of $14 late last year. It rallied to around $20 this year, but now breaks down hard.
ABX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 5% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ABX for a decline to $13.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $18.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of ABX's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Average. ABX rose 10 times after the past 16 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Activity -- Average. ABX has risen an average of 3.1% in April the past five years. However, it has averaged a decline of 5.3% for May.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ABX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)