|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 25 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 36
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list expands sharply as stock market pushes higher and the Dow "breaks out." Bulls be selective. Stock market acting strong so far during this earnings season.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMI - AVERAGE |
CMI, based in Columbus, Ind., makes diesel and natural gas engines. Annual
revenues: $13.2 billion. CMI's stock, one of the best performing large cap plays
on the Big Board, breaks out today from a four-month base. The company posted first quarter net well above all Street estimates. The stock responded bullishly.
So far today, CMI is trading 6
million shares, almost triple its average daily volume is 2.2 million shares.
TTD highlighted CMI as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Wednesday. We also covered it as a stock to accumulate.
CMI's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning. It cleared its breakpoint line and continued to push ahead.
The company reported net for the first quarter climbed to $1.75 a share from 75 cents a year ago.
The $1.75 topped the consensus estimate of $1.44 a share and also the highest estimate of $1.56 a share. TTD has said when a stock can do that it can often move higher for several weeks after the news. That is because analysts have to up their year estimates and view of the company.
CMI's tape shows the recent big block trades. 
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $108.94 to $116.61.
A key bullish trade was a block of 146,582 shares that crossed at $115 in the morning. That was up from the prior block trade at $108.20 on 91,626 shares.
CMI makes electric power generation systems and engine-related component products, including filtration and exhaust after treatment, fuel systems, controls and air handling systems.
The company sells its products to the original equipment manufacturers, distributors and customers globally. It has 500 company-owned and independent distributors and 5,200 dealer locations in 190 countries..
CMI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 60% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index. That is an excellent performance for a big cap play.
CMI's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a new all-time
high. That is very bullish and possibly could bring in more buying from the
new-high crowd Wednesday. The stock has recovered powerfully from the bear market which
had pulled the stock down to 20 in 2009.
CMI's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 65 back in July to a peak near 115. The stock then formed a base bracketed between 95 and 115.
CMI's gap move sends it up sharply and clears key resistance.
The stock bounced back nicely from a shake out in March.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. So, that is a good bullish confirmation of the breakout.
This year, analysts forecast a 40% jump in CMI's earnings to $7.22 a share from $5.17 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 16. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth outlook.
For 2012, Wall Street projects a 21% gain in net to $8.73 a share from the anticipated $7.22 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should climb 42% to $1.78 a share from $1.25 a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.87 a share. TTD sees chances for another upside surprise.
The company should benefit from good engine sales in India, China and Brazil.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 135. A protective stop can be placed at 109. TTD rates CMI a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Ivy Asset Strategy Fund with a 1.3% stake. It was a recent seller of 402,000 shares. T Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund, 4-star rated, 4-star rated, was a recent buyer of 253,000 shares. CMI has 196.8 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options. Currently, 16 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, down from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Cummins Inc. - (CMI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IIVI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PRIM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MTD - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RSTI - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Just a few breakdown stocks today. Bears be conservative and selective. TTD's short from Monday was Avid Technology at $18.99. So far today the stock has declined to $18.51 and is working well for bears.
UIS, based in Blue Bell, Pa., provides information technology services. Annual revenues: $4 billion. UIS's stock falls sharply today after the company reports a large loss for the first quarter wider that a year ago. So far today, UIS is trading 3.1 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 486,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
UIS posted a loss for the quarter of 95 cents a share, greater than the loss of 27 cents a share a year ago.
UIS's stock gapped sharply lower in the morning on the bearish news. The stock then continued to work lower during the day. It hit a low of 28.51. The stock's weak action would indicate that institutions were fleeing the stock.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $32.86 to $29.36. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 30,899 shares crossed the tape at $30.01. That was down from the prior block trade at $32.86.
UIS provides consulting, systems integration, outsourcing, infrastructure, and server technology to help clients' business.
The company builds more secure organizations by creating visibility into clients' business operations. Leveraging the Unisys 3D Visible Enterprise approach, the firm makes visible the impact of their decisions,
This year analysts are forecasting a 15% drop in net to $3.13 a share from $3.67 a year ago. The weak results could cause those annual estimates to drop.
UIS's daily chart shows the stock peaking around 40. It then fell back to 30 and then tried to form a bottom. However, the stock breaks below key support.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UIS for a decline to 24 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 31.30.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UIS - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
