Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, April 26 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 23 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 37
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakouts. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market holds in up trend with momentum on a daily basis bullish. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JAH - AVERAGE |
JAH, based in Rye, N.J. sells a wide range of consumer products. Annual revenues: $6.7 billion. JAH's stock breaks out today from a eight-week flat base. The move lifts the stock close to its all-time high of 45.09 set back in 2007. JAH is trading a heavy 1.8 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 563,000 shares.
TTD highlighted JAH as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
The company posted strong profits for the first quarter that topped most Wall Street estimates. JAH came in with net of 41 cents a share, up from 21 cents a year ago.
The results were 20% higher than the consensus estimate on the Street. The stock responded bullishly to the news and drover sharply higher at the opening. (see 10-minute chart).
JAH then trended mostly sideways the rest of the session. There was a "fluke trade" late in the day, but the stock bounced right back in price.
TTD's clip of the tape shows JAH's recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $39.92 a few days ago to a peak of $42.85. on Thursday morning.
That key bullish trade came on a block of 15,000 shares that crossed at $42.10, up from the prior block at $39.97 a few days before.
JAH operates in four business segments: outdoor solutions, consumer Solutions, branded consumables and process solutions.
Its sales are principally within the United States.
The Company’s international operations are mainly based in Asia, Canada, Europe and Latin America. The company is aggressive in making acquisitions to expand its operations.
The company makes coffeemakers, bedding vacuum packaging machines, heating pads and cleaning products.
JAH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 17% versus a 4% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock pays a dividend yield of 1%.
JAH's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 10 back in 2003 to a peak near 45 in 2007. The stock then was pulled lower by the bear market sinking to 6. However, JAH has since staged a strong come back having made a sevenfold move. The stock is positioned to make a new all-time high. If it does it could draw in more buying.
JAH's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 back in August to around 40 by March. The stock then put down a flat base. Today, it gaps out of the base with a big expansion in volume.
The base was well structured and showed a good contraction in volume prior to the breakout which is bullish.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) was weak but earlier this year, but has since shown a big increase in buying. That is bullish.
This year, analysts forecast a 19%increase in JAH's earnings to $4.07 a share from $3.43 a year ago. The analysts have been bumping up their forecasts.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 10. TTD sees that as reasonable. Next year, analysts look for an 13% increase in net to $4.60 a share from the anticipated $4.07 this year.
JAH should show a strong second quarter. Net for the second quarter should jump 25% to $1.12 a share from 89 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.13 a share. TTD sees very good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past three quarters, JAH topped the consensus estimate by 8 cents a share, 4 cents and 8 cents.
Profits for the third quarter should climb 16% to $1.37 a share from $1.18 the year before.
Strategy Opinion: JAH is a conservative play but with good steady earnings growth. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 52 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 39.
TTD rates JAH an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. A key fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund which purchased 1.5 million shares. It has a 3.4% stake. The largest fundholder is CREF Fund with a 7% stake. The 4-star rated fund was a recent seller of 95,482 shares. JAH has 76.4 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers at $10 to $25 using stock options. They were sellers around $38 recently. However, the buying came earlier in the year when the price was lower (see chart). Currently, 7 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Jarden Corp. - (JAH) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AZO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CTXS - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SWI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VFC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today. Bears be selective. TTD's short play from Wednesday was Zipcar inc. (ZIP) at $12.42. Today, ZIP has declined to $12.30.
VDSI, based in Oakbrook Terrace, Il., produces hardware and software security systems to protect information. Annual revenues: $168 million. VDSI's stock falls sharply today after the company reported disappointing first quarter earnings. So far today, VDSI is trading a heavy 2.6 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 461,000 shares.
TTD highlighted VDSI as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
VDSI's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $7.40. The stock then lifted slightly and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
The company came in with first quarter net of 5 cents a share, down from 6 cents a share a year ago. Revenues declined 11% for the quarter. It blamed production delays.
The Street was looking for 8 cents a share. The lowest estimate was at 5 cents a share.
So, the news was bearish. TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $9.72 on Wednesday to as low as $7.60 today. A key bearish trade came when a massive big block of 760,942 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $7.60. That was down from the prior block price of $8.03.
So, the tape showed very aggressive institutional selling pressure.
VDSI systems are sold to corporate and government customers. The company enables secure financial transactions made over private enterprise networks and public networks, such as the Internet.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 21% drop in net to 50 cents a share from 63 cents a year ago.
VDSI's daily chart shows a gap drop on big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) was bullish. So, the earnings disappointment surprised many.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting VDSI for a drop to 5.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 8.40.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -VDSI - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)