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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, April 26 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday April 26 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Only a few breakouts today. Stock market falls sharply triggering near-term bear signals. Bulls now be cautious and selective. Watch all protective stops.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DSW - AVERAGE |
DSW, based in Columbus, Ohio, is a branded footwear retailer. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. DSW's stock surges today and breaks out from an 8-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new 52-week high. The big push was triggered when DSW boosted its earnings outlook for the fiscal year ending January 30, 2011.
TTD highlighted DSW's stock as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web.
The stock's breakout today was impressive given that the general stock market fell sharply.
DSW's 10 minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning by driving across its breakpoint line with expanding volume. The stock then pulled back a bit. Then it proceeded to move higher even though the stock market was in a nosedive.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in DSW.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $27.72 to $31.75. That shows good and consistent institutional buying interest.
The key trade took place near the opening when a big block of 20,600 shares crossed the tape at $30. That was up sharply from the prior block trade that went off at $27.72.
The company reported fiscal first quarter April 30 comp sales will by up 16%. Overall, for the year it said comp sales would be up 6% to 8%.
The key fundamental news was DSW forecasting that profits for the fiscal year ending January 2011 would be $1.65 to $1.75 a share. That is up from a prior forecast of $1.35 to $1.45 a share.
The Street was projecting net of $1.43 a share, up 16% from the $1.23 a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street was at $1.50. So, DSW's forecast was a major bullish surprise.
DSW operates 305 shoe stores in 39 states. The company also sells dress, casual and athletic footwear for women and men, as well as accessories.
The company also has 356 leased departments for four other retailers. Its DSW stores average 22,000 square feet and carry 24,000 pairs of shoes.
DSW has renewable supply agreements to merchandise the shoe departments in Stein Mart, Inc., Gordman’s, Inc., Filene’s Basement and Frugal Fannie’s Fashion Warehouse stores. DSW owns the merchandise and the fixtures, except for Filene’s Basement, where it only owns the merchandise.
DSW's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 245% compared with a 45% gain in the S&P 500 index.
DSW's stock came public in 2005 and traded 26. TTD's long-term chart shows the stock advancing to a peak of 44 in early 2007. It was swept lower to 6 during the bear market. However, it has since surged back making a fivefold move. It is now in a strong up trend.
DSW's daily chart shows the stock in a gap move higher today with strong volume. The base is bracketed between roughly 30 and 26. The base was set up after DSW made a strong move from 16 to 30.
The widening of the spread (range from high to low) is bullish.
DSW's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bullish for several weeks.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags a bit.
Analysts have been forecasting a 102% jump in DSW's net for the fiscal first quarter to 34 cents a share from 17 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 38 cents a share.
With DSW's annual forecast, there should be good chances for a fiscal first quarter upside profit surprise.
Going out to the fiscal second quarter ending July 30, analysts project a 56% gain in net to 27 cents a share from 17 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: DSW's stock is extended near-term due to the powerful breakout. TTD is targeting the stock for an advance to 40 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 29.90. TTD rates DSW a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund buyer recently was Fidelity Contrafund, 5-star rated, which purchased 509,200 shares. It is the second largest fund holder at 1.2%. Another key buyer was Vanguard Explorer Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 242,200 shares. DSW has 43.9 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Not available. Five analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating DSW Inc. - (DSW) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPO - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SVVS - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HXL - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MAKO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today, but some interesting plays. Bears be more aggressive as stock market shows of a top. TTD's short from Monday was China Security & Surveillance Technology Inc. (CSR) at 6.42. Today, the stock is trading at $5.97 and is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
UIS, based in Blue Bell, Pa., is a worldwide information technology company. Annual revenues: $4.6 billion. UIS stock gaps sharply lower today after the company reported a first quarter loss which disappointed the Street. The stock is trading a hefty 2.2 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 487,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
UIS was highlighted by TTD as a short at our midsession show on the Web Tuesday.
UIS came in with a first quarter loss of 27 cents a share compared with a loss of 66 cents a year ago.
The Street estimate was for a profit of 4 cents a share. No one expected a loss.
TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 44,500 shares crossing in the morning at $34.53. That was down sharply from the prior block trade that went off at $38.64. The tape action showed an urgency to sell by institutions.
UIS provides software and technology that helps customers secure their operations, increase efficiency and utilization data centers.
This year, the Street has been forecasting UIS will show a 52% drop in net to $2.27 a share from $4.75 a year ago.
UIS' chart shows a gap drop on heavy volume. The stock was acting well and gave no hit of the bad news.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UIS for a decline to 28. TTD sees the stock as a trading short. A protective stop buy can be placed near 34.50.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
