Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Friday, April 28, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 24, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - April 28, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Selective list of breakouts with several moving higher due to good earnings. Bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Major market averages in all three time frames remain bullish even though market's backed off a bit Friday.
Stock Market Momentum
(Based on 14 unit moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RCL - AVERAGE |
RCL, based in Miami, provides cruises to many parts of the world. Annual revenues: $8.5 billion. RCL's stock sails higher Friday and breaks out from a six-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries RCL to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD highlighted RCL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, RCL is trading a heavy 6.7 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 1.5 million shares.
RCL's 10 minute chart shows the stock clearing its breakpoint line in the morning.
RCL sailed to an intraday peak of $110.60 in the late morning.
It then turned south in the afternoon, but remained above its breakpoint line (see 10-minute chart).
Tape Action
RCL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $100.50 in the prior session to as high as $109.10 on Friday.
A key bullish trade came near the opening when a block of 51,554 shares crossed the tape at $106.26.
That was up from the prior block trade late on Thursday when a block of 179,406 shares crossed at $100.50.
A massive block of 145,130 shares (duplicated) crossed near the close.
That actually came on an up tick from the prior trade sequence at $106.58.
Business
RCL owns and operates three global cruise brands: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Azamara Club Cruises..
The Company also owns joint venture interest in the German brand TUI Cruises, interest in the Spanish brand Pullmantur and interest in the Chinese brand SkySea Cruises..
Together, its Global Brands and its Partner Brands operate 49 ships in the cruise vacation industry with a capacity of 123,270 berths as of December 31, 2016.
It calls at 535 destinations in 105 countries, covering all seven continents. They go to Alaska, Asia, Australia, Canada, the Caribbean, the Panama Canal and New Zealand.
Charts
RCL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% versus a gain of 15% for the stock market.
Insiders have been buyers using stock options around $25. They have been heavy sellers the past several months.
A key sale was made by A. Wihelmsen of some 7.2 million shares on Dec. 14 at $84.02. The value was $604 million.
RCL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $5.50 in 2009, the low in the bear market, to a peak at $49.96 in early 2011. The stock then pulled back again, but turned higher in late 2012 and surged to a peak of 103.40 in late 2015/
The stock pulled back again, but has since come on strong to make a new high.
RCL's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a base on top of a base.
The move comes with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume. That is bullish.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 16% increase in net to $7.04 a share from $6.08 the prior year.
However, with the strong first quarter, the estimates should move up. The highest estimate for the year has been $7.15 a share.
Going out to 2018, the Street has been forecasting a 13% increase in net to $7.98 a share from the anticipated $7.04 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to jump 29% to $1.40 a share from $1.09 the year before.
RCL has topped the Street's quarterly estimate the past nine quarters. That is impressive.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RCL for a move to $124 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $99.
TTD rates RCL a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet estimations.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Average. RCL has scored some good gains off its breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Above Average. RCL has moved higher nine out of its past 13 earnings reports where there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Above Average. RCL has risen an average of 3.3% in May.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
15% |
1/30/2017 | 86.83 | 100.32 | 3/28/2017 |
32% |
10/31/2016 | 75.63 | 100.32 | 3/28/2017 |
3% |
12/23/2015 | 99.90 | 102.73 | 12/30/2015 |
5% | 9/9/2015 | 91.49 | 96.47 | 9/17/2015 |
18% | 7/23/2014 | 57.55 | 68.24 | 9/19/2014 |
39% | 10/23/2013 | 40.18 | 56.12 | 4/1/2014 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. - (RCL) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BDX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TVTY - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LPLA - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MMSI - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Below Average
Bear Side - Large list of shorts with some interesting plays for bears. Bears be selective.
ATHN, based in Watertown, provides network-based medical record services. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. ATHN's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. The drop was triggered by disappointing earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted ATHN as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, ATHN is trading a heavy 6.8 million shares, 16 times its average daily volume of 378,000 shares.
ATHN came in with earnings for the first quarter from operations of 32 cents a share.
That was well below the Street consensus estimate of 46 cents a share.
ATHN's stock fell sharply in the morning and then trended mostly sideways the rest of the session. It was unable to mount any rally.
Tape Action
ATHN's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $119.63 late in the prior session to as low as $97.75.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 20,000 shares crossed the tape at $100.75.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $119.63 on 160,990 shares.
Business
ATHN's systems cover revenue cycle, patient engagement, care coordination and population health services.
The company also offers Epocrates and other point-of-care mobile applications. ATHN delivers majority of its service offerings through a single instance of cloud-based software.
ATHN also offers athenaOne and athenaOne for Hospitals and Health Systems, depending on whether they are medical groups and practices or hospita. The systems cover 88,000 providers and 86 million patients.
Earnings:
Analysts have been forecasting a 15% increase in net to $1.19 a share this year compared with $1.03 the prior year.
However, that estimate could come down.
Charts:
ATHN's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The action would indicate the earnings miss caught many by surprise.
ATHN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 29% for the past 12 months compared with a gain of 15% for the stock market.
Insiders were buyers using stock options at $25 to $36 recently. They were steady sellers of several months $103 to $130.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ATHN for a decline to $82 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near $1.05
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of ATHN's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. ATHN has fallen sharply after its past six earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Extremely Bearish ATHN has declined an average of 7.6% in April the past five years and 4.8% in May.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATHN - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)