Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Monday, April 29, 2013

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Monay, April 29, 2013

Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - April 29, 2013

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Modest number of breakouts, but some interesting plays. Bulls be selective. Stock market rallies strongly.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - April 29

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP) - 57.50, up 0.27 - Breakpoint 56.35

Net to Jump 30% This Year, TTD Targets 68

  TLLP, based in San Antonio, Tex., operates logistics units for the petroleum industry. Annual revenues: $157 million. TLLP's stock pushes higher today to clear its eight-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new high, which is bullish.

  TTD highlighted TLLP as a breakout at our midsession video show Monday.

  So far today, TLLP is trading 138,143 shares. Its average daily volume is 147,000 shares.

  TLLP's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning with a gap move. Later in the day it trended sideways giving some of its gain back near the close.

  TLP's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see a key bullish trade Monday coming when a block of 2,000 shares crossed the tape at $47.50. That was up from the prior block at $47.22.

  So, there was some aggressive and subtle buying on a day when volume was not that heavy.   

  TLLP is a limited partnership formed to own, operate, develop and acquire crude oil and refined products logistics assets.

  TLLP operates its business through its crude oil gathering and Terminalling, Transportation and Storage units.

  TLLP's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 62% versus an 18% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  One can see on the performance chart a green bar indicating heavy insider buying late last year. The insider would appear to be doing very well.

  TLLP's long term chart shows the stock coming public in 2011 and trading 24. After breaking out late in 2011, the stock has been moving higher in an orderly way. The push to a new high could draw in more buying on Tuesday even though the gain on Monday was not big.

  TLLP's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 42 in January to 56 in March. The stock then put down a well ordered flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line.

  The pattern shows the stock in a solid up trend.

  The tape action is ideal.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working higher nicely now.

  Analysts are forecasting a strong first half.

  Net for the first quarter should climb 27% to 47 cents a share from 37 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 63 cents a share. So, there are some who see potential for a big quarter. TTD sees chances for a modest up side surprise.

  The past three quarters TLLP topped the consensus estimate by 5 cents to 2 cents a share.

  Looking ahead to the second quarter, earnings should climb 30% to 53 cents a share from 41 cents a year ago.

  Overall, the Street is looking for a 15% gain in net to $2.17 a share from $1.89 a year ago. However, some Street projections are as high as $2.71 a share, which would be a 43% leap in net.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TLLP for a move to 68 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 54.

 The stock is a winner until proven otherwise.

  TTD rates TLLP a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Common Fund with a 1.3% stake. The 4-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 189,700 shares.  A key fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Baron Small Cap Retail Fund which purchased 500,000 shares.

  TLLP has 46.5 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 47% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bullish. Insiders were light buyers the past few months. Currently, 7 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, down from 7 three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today, but some interesting plays. Bears be selective. TTD's short from Friday was Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) at 9.80. Today, the stock has declined to 9.72 and is working fine for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUXL) - 14.06, down 1.98

Posts Wider Loss for Quarter, TTD Sees Drop to 11

  AUXL, based in Malvern, Pa., produces drug products to treat urology and sexual problems. Annual revenues: $395 million. AUXL's stock falls sharply today after reporting a wider loss for the first quarter. The stock move under cuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted AUXL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  AUXL reported a loss for the first quarter of 17 cents a share compared with a loss of 4 cents a year before. The Street was looking for a profit. So, results were disappointing.

  The stock responded bearishly.

  AUXL's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 13.87 in the morning. The stock then lifted slightly but faded again in the afternoon.

  AUXL's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks dropping from $16.09 to $13.99. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 33,018 shares crossed the tape at $14.93. That was down sharply from the prior block at $16.03.

 AUXL develops products for urology and sexual health. It markets Testim 1%, a topical testosterone gel, for the treatment of hypogonadism.

 The company is developing additional Testim line extensions, as well as other products for urology and sexual health, including an enzyme in Phase II for the treatment of Peyronie's disease that may also prove useful for the treatment of Dupuytren's Disease.

  This year, analysts are forecasting an 84%  drop in AUXL's earnings to 3 cents a share from 16 cents a year ago.

  The stock's daily chart shows AUXL trending lower to around 16 and then moving sideways for the past three months. Today's breakdown undercuts key technical support with volume. AUXL's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart)  has broken to the downside indicating clear selling pressure.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AUXL for a decline to 11 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 15.50.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)