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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - May 1, 2009


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  Only a few breakouts today and their quality is low. Bulls remain aggressive and selective. Stock market is acting surprisingly strong and holding its ground.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

James River Coal Co. (JRCC) - 17.97,  up 3.73 - Breakpoint 15.80

Profits Surprise Big on Upside,  TTD Targets 23

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JRCC  -  BELOW AVERAGE

  JRCC, based in Richmond, Va., mines, processes, and sells bituminous steam and industrial-grade coal to electric utility companies and industrial customers. Annual revenues: $569 million. JRCC, one of the smaller coal companies. breaks out today from a seven-week base after reporting strong quarterly earnings. Coal stocks have been in the "dumps" lately. However, JRCC's move is strong off the net and the stock has potential to move higher off this breakout.

  TTD highlighted JRCC at our midsession show on the Web today. The stock gets a below average rating as a breakout from TTD because it is not near its all-time or 52-week high.

  Nevertheless, the stock does have potential to move up near-term

  So, far today, JRCC is trading a hefty 6.6 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 913,000 shares. The stock drover higher in the morning and then gradually edged higher the rest of the day.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 100,000 shares crossing the tape on a nice up tick to $17.40 from the prior trade at $17.30. The tape action showed good institutional buying interest.

  JRCC's mining operations are in eastern Kentucky and southern Indiana. In 2007, the company sold 12 million tons of coal and had 270 million tons of proven and probable reserves. JRCC emerged from bankruptcy in May 2004, and its shares began trading on the Nasdaq in January 2005. The stock has done well in recent years. However, it was dragged lower during the recent bear market.

  Today, it jumped after the company reported first quarter earnings increased to $1.03 a share from 78 cents a year ago. The $1.03 beat the consensus estimate of 81 cents a share and also the highest estimate of 86 cents a share. TTD has stated that a stock can move higher after reporting earnings topping the highest estimate - and it could continue higher for a few weeks as analysts boost estimates and possibly recommend the stock. TTD sees the potential here.

  TTD's 3 month-performance chart shows JRCC's stock appreciating 35% compared with an 8% gain for the S&P 500. So, JRCC is acting well relative to the stock market.   

  .  TTD's long-term chart of JRCC shows the stock soaring from 3 in 2007 to a peak of 62 in 2008. The stock then headed South with the bear market. It is now showing signs of turning up on the long-term chart.

  The technical breakout on the daily chart shows the gap move up by JRCC. It is strong with volume expanding and a push through technical resistance at $15.80.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of  chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up. It has held up well in recent months not indicating any heavy selling pressure.

  This year, analysts predict a big jump in JRCC's earnings to $3.39 a share compared with a loss of $3.92 a share a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 5.

  Looking ahead to 2010, the Street projects a 13% decline in net to $2.94 a share.

  The key fundamental impact on the stock should be the next quarter or two. Looking ahead to the second quarter, the Street sees net climbing to 94 cents a share from a loss of 97 cents a share a year ago.

  JRCC is benefiting from favorable contract prices for its coal.

  Strategy Opinion: JRCC is a solid breakout bolstered by strong profits. TTD sees the stock moving to 23 within the next few months, or sooner. We would treat the stock as a trading play because of the expected slowdown in profit growth later. However, the stock has the potential to surprise on the upside. A protective stop can be placed near 15.50. TTD rates JRCC an average intermediate-term play with a lot depending on earnings.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Fidelity Capital Appreciation Fund with a big 5.3% stake. The fund was a recent buyer of 354,000 shares. JRCC has 27 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 4.3 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Very Bullish. Insiders have been heavy buyers recently between 9 to 11. TTD sees that as very bullish. Four analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.



 Stock Performance Chart for 3 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
James River Coal Co. (JRCC)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High   YES
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term   YES  
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term     YES
Earnings Outlook     YES
Industry Group   YES
Prior Breakout Success   YES
Fund Sponsorship   YES
Total Score 7 1 6

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FISV  -  BELOW AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARBA  -  BELOW AVERAGE


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks. School stocks, former leaders, breaking down. Bears be selective.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Intermune Inc. (ITMN) - 12.75, down 0.79

Quarterly Loss Widens, TTD Sees Slide to 9.50

  ITMN, based in Brisbane, Ca., is a biotech firm that focuses on developing therapies to treat lung and liver disorders. Annual revenues: $48 million. ITMN's stock rolls over and falls today. The catalyst was a wider that an expected loss for the first quarter of $1.03 a share compared with a loss of 75 cents a share a year ago. With volume expanding today on the news, TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, ITMN is down about $1. Volume is running at 707,865 shares. Its average daily volume is 505,000 shares.

  ITMN's stock fell at the opening. It had a slight bounce up in the late morning, but then began to drift lower the rest of the day.

  TTD's clip of the tap highlights a big block of 80,555 shares that crossed late on Thursday. The big block went off on a big down tick to $13.25 from the prior trade at $13.54. That signalled a potential bearish opening today. That is what happened.

  ITMN's loss for the quarter of $1.10 a share was much more than the Street's greatest expectation of a loss of 77 cents a share.

 ITMN's only approved product is Actimmune, designed to combat malignant osteoporosis and chronic granulomatous disease.

 The firm's lead orphan drug candidate, pirfenidone, recently completed late-stage trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. InterMune, along with partner Roche, is also developing an early-stage protease inhibitor, ITMN-191, to fight hepatitis C.

  This year, analysts project a loss for ITMN of $2.59 a share compared with a loss of $2.42 a year ago.

  ITMN had mounted a rally earlier this year, However, the stock has now broken down again. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is now bearish.

  Strategy Opinion: ITMN's breakdown opens the door for bears to make a trading short from this play. TTD is targeting ITMN for a decline to 9.50. A protective stop buy can be placed near 13.30.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)