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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 30 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 23
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakout stocks with some top performers moving out. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market holds in up trend with momentum still bullish. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CATM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CATM, based in Houston, is a major operator of ATM
machines. Annual revenues: $625 million. CATM's stock breaks out from a seven-month flat base today. The move carries CATM to a new all-time high. The move was triggered by CATM posting strong earnings for the first quarter. So far today, CATM is trading 1.2 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 304,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted CATM as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
CATM's 10-minute chart shows the stock racing higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint.
The stock then trended sideway holding above its breakpoint going into the close.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $26.36 on Monday to a peak of $28.80 coming in near the close on Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 4,650 shares crossed the tape at $28.40. That was up from the prior block at $27.50.
The block trade in the late afternoon of 5,300 shares at $28.80 showed good buying late in the session after the earnings news came out.
CATM reported adjusted earnings for the first quarter jumped 40% to 38 cents a share from 27 cents a year ago. Results were slightly above the consensus estimate on the Street. The stock responded very bullishly to the news.
CATM is the owner/operator of 37,000 ATMs including approximately 2,200 ATMs in the U.K. and 1,000 ATMs in Mexico.
Major merchant-clients include 7-Eleven, Albertson's, Hess Corporation(, Barnes & Noble College Bookstores, BP Amoco, Chevron, Costco, CVS pharmacy, ExxonMobil and others.
CATM also works closely with financial institutions across the United States to brand Cardtronics-owned ATMs at these major merchant locations, enabling financial institutions to provide convenient surcharge-free cash access for their customers.
CATM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 38% versus a 4% gain for the S&P 500 index.
CATM's long-term chart shows the stock coming pubic in
December of 2007 and trading around 10. The stock fell during the bear
market to 47 cents by late 2008. The stock has since made a
sensational come back and is now making new highs which could draw in more buying on Wednesday.
CATM's daily chart shows the stock forming its long-flat base after it had climbed from 20 to 28. The base shows three attempts to breakout since December. Each time the stock faded back.
However, this time the stock has been able to clear its breakpoint. It will be important for it to show a follow through.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly. bullish.
CATM's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to the upside too. That is a good confirming indicator that the price breakout is good so far.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 34% jump in CATM's earnings to $1.45 a share from $1.08 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value investors.
Going out to 2013, the Street projects a 19% gain in net to $1.72 a share from the anticipated $1.45 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should climb 31% to 37 cents a share from 28 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 41 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a modest upside surprise.
Strategy Opinion: CATM is a leader that tends to move slowly but consistently. TTD is targeting CATM for a move
to 36 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 27. 
TTD rates CATM a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Vanguard Explorer Fund with a 2% stake. It was a recent seller of 509,735 shares.
A key buyer recently was 5-star rated Times Square Small Cap Growth Fund which added 73,000 shares. CATM has 44.1 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 91% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers of the stock in recent months. The latest selling was at $26.24. Nine analysts follow the stock and 7 have a strong buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Cardtronics Inc. - (CATM) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALLT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HCII - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MDSO - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies broadly. Bears be selective.
VPHM, based in Exton, Pa., produces drugs. Annual revenues: $544 million. VPHM's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a sharp decline in first quarter earnings. So far today, VPHM is trading a heavy 4 million shares, almost double its average daily volume of 2.2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted VPHM as a short at TTD's midsession video show.
VPHM reported a decline in first quarter net to 26 cents a share from 40 cents a year ago. The 26 cents a share was well below the consensus estimate of 39 cents a share and also the lowest estimate of 30 cents a share.
VPHM's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $19.12. Around midsession, the stock staged a modest rally to cut some of its loss.
VPHM's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $21.93 to as low as $19.50. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 80,000 shares crossed the tape at $19.50. That was down from the prior block trade at $21.75 on 47,846 shares (duplicated). The tape showed heavy institutional selling pressure in the morning.
VPHM produces a variety of products. They include Cinryze TM and Vancocin?. Cinryze is a C1 esterase inhibitor therapy for routine prophylaxis against hereditary angioedema (HAE), also known as C1 inhibitor (C1-INH) deficiency, a rare, severely debilitating, life-threatening genetic disorder.
Vancocin is a potent antibiotic to treat antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), or C. difficile, and enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant strains.
The company focuses its drug development activities in diseases including C1 esterase inhibitor deficiency and C. difficile. The Company sells its products directly to drug distributors.
This year, analysts project VPHM will show a 56% drop in earnings to 82 cents a share from $1.89 a year ago.
VPHM's daily chart shows a gap drop in early April on big volume. The stock tried to form a bottom. However, today, VPHM breaks to the downside again with volume picking up. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting VPHM for a decline to 16 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 21.30.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -VPHM - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
