|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 30 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 18
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakouts with retail plays in abundance. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market holds in up trend. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LULU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
LULU, based in Canada, makes and sells athletic apparel primarily in North America. Annual revenues: $1 billion. LULU's stock, a leader, breaks out today from a seven-week flat base and hits an all-time high. TTD highlighted LULU as a potential breakout earlier this week. The stock's move comes as the market shows strong buying in retail apparel and department store stocks. 
.
So far today, LULU's stock is up sharply. It is trading a heavy 3.8 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 1.7 million shares.
LULU's 10-minute chart shows the stock driving sharply higher in the morning and cutting across its breakpoint.
The stock then extended its advance into the late afternoon. The stock appears poised to close near its high for the day. If so, that would be very bullish.
The stock's tape action shows good institutional accumulation starting late in the afternoon.
So far today, the price for its block trades has climbed from $75.42 to a peak of $79.52 in the late afternoon.
A key bearish block crossed in the late morning when 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $78.02. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $75.42 on a block of 12,100 shares. 
LULU's yoga-inspired apparel is marketed under the lululemon athletica brand name. The company offers a line of apparel and fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets designed for athletic pursuits, such as yoga, running and general fitness.
It sells through 124 stores in Canada and the United States. It has 45 stores in Canada, 70 in the United States and nine franchise stores in Australia. LULU's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2007 and trading at 30.
LULU's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 70% versus just a 4% gain for the S&P 500 index.
LULU's long term chart shows the stock coming public and trading around 15 in 2007, after adjusting for a 2-for-1 split.. The stock advanced to a peak of 30 that year. However, it was pulled lower during the bear market falling to $2.64.
It has since made a sensational comeback. The push to a new all-time high on a breakout could draw in more buying on Thursday. 
LULU's daily chat shows the stock climbing from 45 late last year to a peak of 77 in March. The stock then formed a tight flat base bracketed between 70 and 76. The breakout today comes with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is an overall up trend complimenting the price pattern of the stock and showing there was good buying in the base.
Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending April 30 is expected to jump 35% to 30 cents a share from 22 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 33 cents a share.
TTD sees good chances for a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters, LULU has topped the consensus Street estimate by 2 to 4 cents a share.
Net for the fiscal year ending in January of 2013 should climb 29% to $1.63 a share from $1.26 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 46. That is high. So, the stock needs to be watched carefully.
Net for the fiscal year ending January of 2014 is projected to rise 27% to $2.08 a share from the anticipated $1.63 a share for fiscal 2012. 
Strategy Opinion: LULU is a leader in the retail apparel sector which is now heating up.
TTD is targeting LULU for a move to 95 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 75.
TTD rates LULU an above average intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings outlook.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a big 11% stake. It has held its position steady. 3-star rated American Funds Growth Fund of America was a recent buyer of 3.1 million shares. LULU has 143 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 94% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish: Insiders were buyers using stock options around $10 to $12 a share. They sold around $73 recently. Right now, 20 analysts follow the stock, 11 have a buy, down from 12 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Lululemon Athletica Inc. - (LULU) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DXPE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DOS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CNK - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large number of short plays today as earnings weakness knocks some down. Bears be selective. Stock market still consolidating within an up trend.
OPEN, based in San Francisco, provides a restaurant reservation service. Annual revenues: $140 million. OPEN, was a hot IPO. It has since peaked and is coming back to earth. The stock falls sharply today after analysts were disappointed by the company's earnings projections. So far today, OPEN is trading 4.7 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 1.2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
OPEN came in with first quarter net of 40 cents a share, up from 34 cents a year ago. Revenues came in at $39.4 million. That was below the Street projection of $39.6 million. The revenues miss was cited for the drop in the stock's price today.
OPEN's stock gapped lower hitting an intraday low of 36.02. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to stage a rebound.
The stock's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $45.79 to as low as $36.34.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 40,388 shares crossed the tape (duplicated) at $36.78. That was down from the prior block at $43.68. The tape showed heavy institutional selling pressure after the earnings report.
OPEN provides reservation, table management and guest management software for restaurants.
The firm operates www.opentable.com, a website for making restaurant reservations online. With customers throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and Japan, the OpenTable hardware and software system replaces pen-and-paper at the host stand.
This year, analysts are forecasting a modest 2% rise in net to $1.02 a share from $1 a year ago.
The stock has tumbled from 90 back in July to the 30s by late last year. It then lifted and trended sideways. Today's technical breakdown is very bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting OPEN for a drop to 31 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $39.50.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OPEN - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
