|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 30 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 17
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakouts with some good looking plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market still in consolidation within an overall up trend. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALGT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
ALGT, based in Las Vegas, is a niche airline providing nonstop
flights from small cities to large vacation destinations such as Las Vegas and
Orlando.
Annual revenues: $824 million. ALGT breaks out today from a 5-week flat base
hits a new all-time high. The stock came public back in late 2006. So far today, ALGT is trading 283,562 shares. Its average daily volume is 166,000 shares. 
ALGT's daily chart shows the stock climbing steadily late on Wednesday and through most of Thursday.
The stock cleared the breakpoint in the morning and showed good strength afterwards.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $59.97 to a peak of $63.51.
A key bullish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 7,942 shares crossed the tape at $61.91. That was up from the prior block at $60.09. Then on Thursday morning a big block of 9,300 shares crossed with the price jumping to $63.50. That showed aggressive institutional buying. 
ALGT generates ancillary revenue by charging incremental fees for in-flight conveniences and by brokering hotel rooms and rental cars online and via phone. It is featuring some very interesting discounts.
The company also has fixed-fee deals with Harrah's Entertainment to fly certain prespecified routes. The firm's fleet is composed of 56 McDonnell Douglas MD-80 aircraft. and one Boeing 757-200 plane.
The company covers 64 small cities and 11 leisure destinations.
TTD's performance chart shows ALGT's stock appreciating 42 the past 12 months compared with just a 4% rise in the S&P 500 index.
TTD's long-term chart goes back to 2007. It shows ALGT falling from the
mid-30s in 2007 to 16 in 2008 - the bear market.. However, since then the stock has been working
higher. It did meet long-term upside resistance around 60. However, the stock is now starting to push through it. That is bullish. 
TTD's daily chart shows the well formed flat base set up when the stock rallied from around 48 in early March to 61. The base showed a clear wedge to the upside - higher lows on each pull back. That is bullish.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is a bit weak having pulled back after the peak. That shows a lack of strong buying in the base. So, one needs to be watchful.
ALGT is poised to show an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth.
Net for the second quarter should climb 57% and then in the third quarter 67%. Accelerating earnings growth is often a powerful driver to send a stock higher.
Net for the second quarter should increase to 97 cents a share from 62 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.07 a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The prior quarter, ALGT topped the consensus estimate on the Street by 15 cents a share, or 15%.
Net for the third quarter should leap to 82 cents a share from 49 cents a year ago.
For the year, analysts predict a 48% gain in net to $3.79 a
share from $2.57 a share, a year ago. Some analysts are as high as $4.28 a share. The company has one of the highest operating margins in the airline industry.
Looking out to 2013, Wall Street is currently looking for
a 28% gain in net to $4.86 a share from the anticipated $3.79 a share. The stock sells with a modest 16
price-earnings-ratio based on this year's net. 
Strategy Opinion: ALGT's breakout today looks solid. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 78 within the next few months, or sooner. The push to a new high is very bullish. That means there is no overhead resistance to stall its advance. A protective stop can be placed near 58.
TTD rates ALGT an excellent intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings outlook.
Sponsorship: Very Good. Several top rated funds hold the stock. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 5.9% stake. It was a recent buyer of 76,655 shares. Also, 5-star rated Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund was recent purchaser of 164,02 shares. ALGT has 19.2 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 91.6% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been heavy sellers of the stock at times. The latest sell was 2.8 million shares at $55.79. They have been getting stock options, but have not executed them lately. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Allegiant Travel Co. - (ALGT) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WGM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TWTC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MSTR - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MGAM - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - Maximum
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Big number of breakdown stocks today as stock market moves lower. TTD's short from Wednesday was Opentable Inc. (OPEN) at 37.44. Today, the stock has declined to 35.94 and is working great for bears.
NEWP, based in Irvine, Ca., is a global supplier of high-precision test, measurement and automation systems. Annual revenues: $545 million. NEWP's stock falls sharply today after reporting disappointing earnings for the first quarter. So far today, NEWP is trading a heavy 1.3 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 262,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted NEWP as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
NEWP reported earnings for the first quarter dropped to 17 cents a share from 53 cents a year ago.
The stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $14.26. NEWP edged a bit higher but still was sharply lower in the late afternoon.
NEWP's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $17.29 to $14.50. A key bearish trade came when a block of 25,000 shares crossed in the morning at $15.02. That was down sharply from the prior block at $17.29. The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
NEWP's products enable makers of fiber optic components, semiconductor capital equipment, industrial metrology, aerospace and high-precision products to automate their manufacturing processes, enhance product performance, and improve efficiencies.
Analysts expect NEWP's earnings this year to drop 7% to $1.23 a share from $1.32 a year ago. Net for the upcoming second quarter is projected to plunge 31% to 27 cents a share from 39 cents a year ago.
NEWP's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) was trending higher before the hit. So, the news most likely came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NEWP for a decline to $11.50 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 15.90.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -NEWP - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
