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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 2 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market turns lower. It is pulling back after a good run. Bulls be conservative and watch all stops.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GMCR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
GMCR, based in Waterbury, Vt., produces coffee. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. GMCR, a leader, breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. It was triggered by strong quarterly earnings. So far today, GMCR is trading 11.4 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 2 million shares.
TTD highlighted GMCR as a breakout at our midsession video show.
GMCR posted net for the fiscal second quarter earnings of 44 cents a share, up from 17 cents a year ago. That was above Street estimates of 38 cents a share.
The company also boosted its outlook for the year and said it plans a public stock offering of 7.1 million shares.
GMCR's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in pre-market trading. It then moved sideways the rest of the day showing good strength in the late afternoon to hold its gain.
TTD's clip of the tape shows recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $75.28 early in the day to a peak of $77.85 in the late morning. A key bullish trade was the opening block of 86,583 shares crossing at $75.28. The tape did show some light profit taking in the afternoon.
GMCR produces coffees with its innovative brewing technology and gourmet single-cup brewing systems.
The company's operations are managed through two business units.
The specialty coffee business unit produces coffee, tea and hot cocoa from its family of brands, including Tully's Coffee, Green Mountain Coffee, Newman's Own, Organics coffee, Timothy's World Coffee and Diedrich, Coffee People and Gloria Jeans, a trademark licensed to the Company for use in North America and owned by Gloria Jeans Coffees International Pty. Ltd.
The Keurig unit makes gourmet single-cup brewing systems.
GMCR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 210% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock is a leader that continues to perform well.
GMCR's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 3 back in 2006 to a new high of 77 today. The stock has been a big winner that has gone through three stock splits already. TTD sees GMCR with the potential to have another stock split, which would be bullish near-term.
GMCR's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 38 in February to 58. The stock then put down a flat base. Today, its gaps higher on strong volume and bullish earnings.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart( is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That shows there was strong buying in the stock even when it was trending sideways recently.
This fiscal year ending September 30, the Street has been forecasting an 85% surge in net to $1.24 a share from 67 cents a year ago. That estimate could be bumped up.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 62. That is high but worthy due to the stock earnings growth.
Looking out to fiscal 2012, the Street projects a 45% jump in net to $1.80 a share from the anticipated $1.24 this year.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending June 30 should leap 65% to 31 cents a share from 19 cents a year ago. TTD sees chances for at least a modest upside surprise.
Strategy Opinion: GMCR is still a hot stock. TTD is targeting GMCR for a move to 93. We also see chances for a stock split. The stock is extended. So, one can use a scale-in strategy. A protective stop can be placed near 70. TTD rates GMCR a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund which purchased 1.9 million shares. Also, 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund added 180,000 shares. GMCR has 141.6 million shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been light buyers using stock options, but they turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $55.54. Nine analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. - (GMCR) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HAIN - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CBS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HF - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GRMN - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 19
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Breakdown list of stocks expands sharply today as stock market moves broadly lower. Bears be venturesome.
FSLR, based near Phoenix, makes solar module for use with solar electricity. Annual revenues: $2.6 billion. FSLR's stock falls sharply today after reporting a decline in earnings for the first quarter. So far today, FSLR is trading 3.9 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 1.8 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
FSLR reported first quarter net of $1.33 a share, down from $2 a share a year ago. The company said the lower net reflected higher expenses and lower selling prices. The market reacted bearishly on the earnings news.
FSLR's stock fell in pre-market trading. It had a slight bounce up in the morning, but then faded back and trended sideways. The intraday low was 124.30.
TTD's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for FSLR's blocks declining from $137.52 to as low as $126.97. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 57,538 shares (duplicated) crossed at $126.97. The tape action showed heavy institutional selling.
FSLR produces solar modules with an advanced thin film semiconductor process that significantly lowers solar electricity costs.
By enabling clean renewable electricity at affordable prices, the company provides an alternative to conventional electricity using fossil fuels.
This year, analysts forecast a 23% rise in FSLR's net to $9.47 a share from $7.68 a year ago.
FSLR's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and slicing through key technical support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for two months. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bearish showing clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FSLR for a decline to 105 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD sees FSLR as a trading short. A protective stop buy can be placed near 132.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FSLR - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
