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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 7 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Very few breakouts today. Stock market mixed. It remains in a trading range within an up trend. Bull be patient. Today, TTD features a recent breakout. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DDS - AVERAGE |
DDS, based in Little Rock, Ark., operates 304 department stores selling clothes. Annual revenues: $6.4 billion. DDS's stock clears its seven-week flat base today. The stock broke out from the base on May 2. TTD highlights DDS today because it is still within range to be bought as a breakout. DDS is up nicely today. Volume is running at a heavy 1.9 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 684,000 shares. 
DDS heavy volume and push higher Monday represents a strong follow through move on its recent breakout.
DDS's 30-minute chart shows the spike move higher Monday. Afterwards the stock trended sideways holding its gain for the day.
The stock is now comfortably above its breakpoint and acting well.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $40.58 to $43.06. A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 11,218 shares crossed the tape at $42. That was up from the prior block at $40.58. The tape showed good institutional buying. 
DDS is one of the largest fashion apparel and home furnishings department store retailers.
The company's stores operate with one name, Dillard's, and span numerous states. Dillard's offers name brand and private label merchandise.
The company's retail operations include cosmetics, ladies' apparel and accessories, juniors' and children's apparel, men's apparel and accessories, shoes and home and furniture.
DDS runs 304 Dillard's stores, including 16 clearance centers, and an internet store. The company also operates a general contracting construction company, that builds and remodels stores for DDS.
DDS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 38% versus a 2% gain for the S&P 500 index.
DDS's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $14 back in 2003 to a peak of $40.56 in 2007. The stock then took a nosedive to $2.50 during the bear market which ended in late 2008. The stock has since soared to $66.50. It is in a strong up trend long-term. 
DDS's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 43 back in January to 64 by March. The stock then formed a tight flat base. The stock broke out four sessions ago. Today, it follow through to the upside.
DDS's base was formed above a rising 50-day moving average line. That shows the stock is in a strong up trend.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been mostly bullish for the past five months.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That shows the stock is under good accumulation and that there is now subtle selling going on.
This fiscal year ending January of 2013, analysts forecast a 25% jump in net to $5.25 a share from $4.21 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 12. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value investors.
The company is poised to show an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth.
Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending April 30 analysts expect a 30% jump in net and then in the fiscal second quarter a 37% gain in net. Accelerating quarterly earnings growth can often be a key driver to send a stock higher.
Net for the fiscal first quarter should climb to $1.65 a share from $1.27 a year ago. TTD sees excellent chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past four quarters, DDS topped the consensus estimate by 21 cents a share, 10 cents, 11 cents and 36 cents. Impressive!
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DDS for a move to 80 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 62.
TTD rates DDS a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Good. A key buyer recently was CREF Stock Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 182,710 shares. The largest fund holder is Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund with a 5.5% stake. The 4-star rated fund was a recent seller of 924,780 shares. DDS has 46 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Light insider selling so far this year. Stock options were granted this year around $61 to $63. That is reasonable. One analyst follows the stock and is neutral. Three months ago, 2 analysts follow the stock and both were neutral.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Dillard's Inc. - (DDS) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EQR - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ABR - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 8
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of short plays today. Stock market in a trading range now. Bears be selective.
TPC, based in Sylmar, Ca., provides construction services. Annual revenues: $3.7 billion. TPC's stock falls sharply today on heavy volume. The move causes the stock to cut below key technical support. A brokerage firm lowered its price target for the stock. So far today, TPC is trading a heavy 933,001 shares, five times its normal daily volume of 170,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
The brokerage firm lowered its rating after TPC reported "disappointing results" for the first quarter. The net was impacted by the loss in some work.
The stock gapped lower in the morning and trended lower most of the day unable to mount a rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades over the past few days. The price for the blocks have declined from $15.56 to $13.50. A key bearish trade came in the morning when 7,247 shares crossed the tape at $13.50. That was down sharply from the prior block at $14.41.
TPC was formerly known as Perini Corporation. It is a construction services firm. It offers general contracting, construction management and design/build services to private clients and public agencies throughout the world.
The company offers general contracting, preconstruction planning and project management services, including the planning and scheduling of the manpower, equipment, materials and subcontractors required for a project.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to rise 24%. However, in the third quarter net should drop 15%. Overall, for the year profits are projected to climb 25% to $2.25 a share from $1.80 a year ago.
TPC's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has just begun to roll over. So, the action has come as somewhat of a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TPC for a drop to 9.30 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 13.40.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -TPC - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
