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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, May 10 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 10 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Just 2 breakouts today. Stock market rebounds sharply today on overseas bailout. Bulls be patient and selective on breakouts. The stock market has to repair some damage from last week. There is still a potential setup for a consolidation pattern.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DTV - ABOVE AVERAGE |
DTV, based in El Segundo, Ca., provides digital television services in the
United States and Latin America. Annual revenues: $22.3 billion. DTV's stock clears an 11-week base going back to early March. The stock's move today carries it to a new high, which is bullish. So far today, DTV is trading 18.7 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 10.7 million shares. 
TTD highlighted DTV's stock at our midsession show on the Web today.
DTV's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking over key resistance at 37.24 today. The stock rebounded strongly from the big selloff on Thursday. It's push today sends it through a breakpoint zone bracketed between 35.23 and 37.24. The action is impressive.
TTD's clip of the tape shows DTV's big block trades. One can see a key block trade this morning was 267,500 shares that crossed on a big up to $37.35 from the prior trade at $37.03.
The tape action indicated good institutional buying interest in the stock.
DTV's stock has a low beta of 0.86 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, one would expect the stock to move a bit slower than the stock market. So, one needs to be patient.
The company operates in two segments, DIRECTV U.S. and DIRECTV Latin America. They are engaged in acquiring, promoting, selling and/or distributing digital entertainment programming through satellite to residential and commercial subscribers.
DTV's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 50% versus a 25% gain for the S&P 500 index.
DTV's long-term chart shows the stock advancing strongly from a
low of 13 in late 2005 to 37. The stock is well positioned to make more new
all-time high. If it can do that it could draw strong buying from the
new-high crowd because of the strong earnings outlook. 
DTV's daily chart shows the stock with a recent strong run up from 25 to 34. It broke out from the base at 34, but then bobbed around and fell when the stock market sold off big last Thursday.
The pattern set up a breakpoint zone.
Today, DTV pushes through it to breakout.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending sideways within an overall up trend. Note that the AD line did not give ground when the stock's price did in January. It also held well against the big drop on Thursday.
That means DTV is showing good accumulation.
The Street is forecasting a 43% surge in net for the second quarter to 57 cents a share from 40 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 65 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise. In the last quarter DTV topped the consensus estimate by 14 cents a share, or 31%.
This year, analysts predict a 57% jump in DTV's net to $2.24 a share from $1.44 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 15. TTD sees that as low making DTV a good value play. Going out to 2011, profits should climb 31% to $2.93 a share from the anticipated $2.24 a share for 2010.
Strategy Opinion: DTV's breakout today is impressive. TTD is targeting DTV for a move to 46 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 34 giving it some room. TTD rates DTV a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Vanguard PrimeCap Fund with a 2.8% stake. However, it was a recent seller of 767,000 shares. The largest buyer recently was American Funds Growth Fund of America, 3-star rated, which purchased 16.9 million shares. DTV has 956 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options. They did some light selling afterwards. The latest sell was a $35.95. Currently, 17 analysts follow the stock, 12 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating DirecTV - (DTV) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPHS - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Only a few short plays today as stock market rallies strongly on overseas financing. Bears be careful.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
IPSU, based in Sugar Land, Tex., produces refined sugar in the U.S. Annual revenues: $590 million. IPSU's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. The trigger: A report of a large loss for the fiscal second quarter ended March 30. So far today, IPSU is trading 546,627 shares, five times its normal daily volume of 104,000 shares. 
IPSU reported a loss for the fiscal second quarter of $2.82 a share compared with a loss of $1.07 a share a year ago.
The loss was much more than expected. Some on the Street were looking for a profit. So, results were a big disappointment. The company blamed weaker margins.
IPSU's stock fell sharply at the opening. It hit a low of $12.67. It then trended sideways until the late afternoon, when it lifted slightly to trim some of its loss.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining sharply from $14.97 to $12.97. As of midsession, institutional selling pressure continued. There was one bullish trade. A block of 7,100 shares crossed at $13.50. That was up from the prior block trade at $13.15. Nevertheless, a block traded later at $12.97.
IPSU has facilities in Georgia and Louisiana. It has joint venture operations that market sugar and other sweeteners in Mexico and Canada.
The company’s customers include retailers, restaurant chains, distributors and industrial customers, principally food manufacturers. The Company’s products include granulated, powdered, liquid and brown sugars marketed in a range of packaging options.
This fiscal year ending September 30 the Street still looks for a profit versus a loss of $3.20 a share in fiscal 2009.
IPSU's daily chart shows the stock breaking down below key support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bullish for the past four weeks.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting IPSU for a decline to $10.30 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 14.40.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
