Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 9 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 20
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakout stocks today as stock market pushes higher. Bulls be aggressive seeking breakouts with strong earnings and near new highs.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OPNT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
OPNT, based in Bethesda, Md., produces software for managing applications and networks. Annual revenues: $126 million shares. OPNT' breaks out powerfully today after reporting strong profits for the fiscal year ending March. Volume for the thinly traded stock is running at four times normal at 439,864 shares versus its average daily volume of 104,000 shares.
TTD highlighted OPNT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
OPNT's 10-minute chart shows the stock driving sharply higher in the morning on heavy volume. The stock cleared its breakpoint easily. In the afternoon, OPNT sagged back a bit but held its breakout.
OPNT reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 30 climbed to 17 cents a share from 11 cents a year ago. That was above Street estimates.
For the year net come in at 55 cents a share, up sharply from 28 cents a year ago. Revenues increased to $148 million from 126 million a year ago.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $37.31 to a peak of $41.94. The key bullish trade actually came late on Monday when a bloc of 2,037 shares crossed the tape at $38.33. That was up from the prior block trade at $37.67.
OPNT's software products address application performance management, network planning, engineering and operations, and network research and development.
OPNT differentiates itself from traditional providers of application and network management products by focusing on analytics and producing actionable results.
Traditional application and network management products focus on data collection and monitoring. These systems report on historical trends and the status of networks and systems. In August 2010, OPNT acquired DSAuditor product line from Embarcadero Technologies, Inc., a software company.
OPNT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 170% the past 12 months compared with a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index. OPNT is a top performer.
OPNT's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a multi-year high. It has climbed from a bear market low of 7 to a peak of 41 - a sensational run up. The push to a multi-year high could draw in more buying from aggressive investors on Wednesday.
OPNT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 19 in October to 40. The stock then set up a flat base with a wedge to the upside. The basing work was above a rising 50-day moving average line. That showed the stock remained in an aggressive up trend although it was resting.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line is in a strong up trend and did not give any ground when OPNT was basing. That indicated that good buying was still taking place even while the stock was basing.
This fiscal year ending March of 2012, analyst are forecasting a 51% gain in net to 92 cents a share. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 44.
Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending June 30 is expected to leap 75% to 14 cents a share from 8 cents a year ago. The company is benefiting from strong revenues.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting OPNT for a move to 50 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 37. TTD rates OPNT a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T.Rowe Price Small-cap Stock Fund with a 3.2% stake. The largest fund buyer lately was 4-star rated Pioneer Oak Ridge Small Cap Growth Fund which picked up 136,524 shares. OPNT has 22.1 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were light buyers using stock options. They have done very little selling this year. Five analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Opnet Technologies Inc. - (OPNT) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MYRG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FOSL - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SLH - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CCK - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Breakdown stocks pick up today even as the stock market advances. List is dotted with damaged stocks due to fundamentals. Bears be selective. TTD's short from Monday was Petmed (PETS) at $13.20. So far today the stock has declined to $12.86. It is working well for bears.
PANL, based in Ewing, N.J., provides research in technologies related to flat panel displays. Annual revenues: $30.5 million. PANL's stock falls sharply today on heavy volume. The drop was triggered when the company reported a wider loss for the quarter. So far today, PANL is trading 5.2 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 945,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
PANL came in with a loss for the for the first quarter of 31 cents a share, wider than the loss of 8 cents a share a year ago.
The stock declined in the morning hitting a bottom late in the morning. Its low was at $45.07. The stock then lifted slightly and then trended sideways.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining over the pat few days from $52.69 to 48. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 34,967 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at 51.53. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $55.60.
PANL develops display panels.
This year, the Street has been forecasting a profit of 10 cents a share compared with a loss of 53 cents a year ago. However, that forecast probably will be reduced.
PANL's chart shows the stock in an up trend and now gapping lower with the heavies volume in months. The stocks technicals had been bullish. So, the news comes as a big surprise. That could cause some institutions to eventually flee the stock.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PANL for a decline to 38 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 50.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PANL - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)