Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - May 10, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Thursday - May 10, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  24

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Large list of breakouts Thursday. Bulls can be venturesome.

Stock market  -  Bullish. Major market average are bullish in all time sectors.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Thursday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) - 128.67, up 2.50 - Breakpoint 127.49

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 155 

   MPWR, based in San Jose, Ca., makes integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery products. Annual revenues: $471 million. MPWR's stock drives higher Thursday from a seven-month flat base.

 The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.

  So far today, MPWR is trading 311,818 shares. Its average daily volume is 306,000 shares.

  MPWR's stock rose steadily Thursday. It cleared its breakpoint in the early afternoon.

  The stock finished near its high for the day. That is bullish.

  Tape Action

  MPWR's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $125.76 in the prior session to as high as $128.67.

  A key bullish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 51,757 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $126.17.

  That was up from the prior block at $125.76 on 8,400 shares.

  Then near the close Thursday a block of 30,923 (duplicated) crossed the tape at $128.67.  

  That was up from the prior block at $127.94 on 12,300 shares.

  Business

  MPWR makes power solutions for the communications, storage and computing, consumer and industrial markets segment.  

 The company's product families include Direct current to DC products, and lighting control products.

  MPWR's integrated circuits  are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems, such as portable electronic devices, wireless local area network, access points, computers, monitors, automobiles and medical equipment.

 The company also offers AC/DC power conversion solutions for end products that plug into a wall outlet.

  Charts

  MPWR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 35% versus a 14% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been steady sellers this year from $113 to $125. They have not been buyers.

  MPWR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing steadily from $20 to $128. The stock has had only had modest pullbacks.   

 MPWR's daily chart shows the stock getting to $127 in March.

  The stock then pulled back to $110.

  The stock rallied, rested and then pushed higher and breaks out with modest volume.

 MPWR's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 27% increase in net to $3.72 a share from the $2.93 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  34. That is okay given the earnings growth rate this year.

  Going out to 2019, the Street predicts a 22% increase in net to $4.55 a share from the anticipated $3.72 this year.

  Quarterly earnings will be strong.

  Net for the upcoming second quarter is projected to rise 31% to 89 cents a share from the 68 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 90 cents a share. The company tended to beat the consensus by one to two cents a share.  

  Net for the third quarter is expected to be up 24% to $1.04 a share from the 84 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MPWR for a move to $155 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $122.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability: Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish.  MPWR has tended to score just modest gains off its recent breakouts. However, the stock is in a strong up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral.  MPWR rose 3 times after the past 7 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish.  MPWR rose an average of 7.6% in May and had a breakeven in June the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 16

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Neutral.

Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks with many issue hurt by disappointing earnings. Bears can be venturesome.

TTD's short from Wednesday was Caestarstone Ltd. (CSTE) at $13.10. Thursday, CSTE falls to $12.67.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Mercadolibre Inc. (MELI) - 316.63, down 8.68

Posts Quarterly Loss, TTD Sees Decline to 275

  MELI, based in Buenos Aires, Argentina, provides e-commerce services.  Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. MELI's stock falls sharply Thursday after reporting a disappointing loss for the first quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted MELI as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  So far today, MELI is trading a heavy 1.8 million shares, more than double its average daily volume of 748,000 shares.

  MELI reported a loss of 29 cents a share for the first quarter versus a profit of $1.10 the year before.

  The Street was anticipating a profit of 48 cents a share. So, results were a big disappointment.

  MELI's stock fell sharply late on Wednesday touching $300. However, the stock lifted Thursday morning to $335. It then trended lower to finish near $316.

  Tape Action

  MELI's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from  $324.65 Thursday morning to as low as $316.63.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,700 shares crossed in the afternoon at $317.91.

  That was down from the prior block at $331.38 on 7,935 shares.

  Business

  MELI  enables commerce through its marketplace platform in Latin America.  

  The system  is designed to provide users with services to facilitate commercial transactions.

  The firm operates in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico Venezuela, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Guatemala, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and the U.S.

  It also operates online commerce platforms in the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, Salvador, Panama, Bolivia, Guatemala, Paraguay and Portugal.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 24% drop in net to $1.93 a share from the $2.53 in 2017.

  Net for the second quarter is projected to fall 46% to 33 cents a share from the 61 cents the year before.   

Charts:   

  MELI's daily chart shows the stock peaking at $417.91 in March. The stock then trended lower and tried to form a base. However, Thursday, MELI cuts below support with big volume.

 MELI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 16% versus a 15% gain for the stock market. Insiders were buyers late last year at $274. They have not done any selling.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MELI for a decline to $275 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $324.

Suitability: Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response -  Bullish.  MELI rose 5 times after the past 7 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish.   MELI rose an average of 3.2 in May and 1.1% in June the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD

end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)