Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - May 11, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - May 11, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  13

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Several good looking breakouts Friday. Aggressive bulls can be venturesome.

Stock market  -   Bullish. All major averages are bullish in all-time sectors. However, the long-term pattern of the stock market shows it in a trading range. Earnings season coming to an end. So, individual stock volatility should ease.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Friday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

MCBC Holdings Inc. (MCFT) - 27.94, up 1.96 - Breakpoint 26.45

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 34

   MCFT, based in Vonore, Ten., makes inboard tournament ski boats and V-drive runabouts under the MasterCraft brand. Annual revenues: $229 million. MCFT's stock drives higher Friday and breaks out from its 14-week flat base.

  The move carries the stock to a new all-time high.

  TTD highlighted MCFT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.

  MCFT is trading a heavy 501,230 shares, five times its average daily volume of 108,000 shares.

  MCFT's 10-minute chart shows the stock driving higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.

  The stock reached an intraday peak of $28.90.

  MCFT then pulled back slightly and sailed steady around $28 the rest of the session.

  Tape Action

  MCFT's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $25.98 in the prior session to as high as $28.50.

  A key bullish trade came Friday morning when a block of 8,446 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $27.53.

  That was up from  the prior block trade at $25.98 on 3,354 shares Thursday.

  Business

  MCFT operates two units: MasterCraft and Hydra-Sports.

  The MasterCraft makes recreational performance boats primarily used for water skiing, wakeboarding, wake surfing, and recreational boating.

 The company distributes the MasterCraft products through its dealer network.

 MCFT also makes Hydra-Sports recreational fishing boats.

  It also leases a parts warehouse in the U.K.to expedite service in Europe.

  Charts

  MCFT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% versus a 16% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have not done any recent selling. Last year, they were light sellers at $18 to $22 a share. They have not used their stock options.

  MCFT's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2015 at $15.30. The stock trended sideways until 2017. It then broke out through resistance at $15. It has since been trending steadily higher.   

  MCFT's daily chart shows the stock rising sharply back in February off its earnings report.

  The stock then consolidated with upside resistance at $26.45.

  The gap breakout Friday is very good coming with expanding volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

 Earnings Outlook:

  This fiscal year ending in June, analysts are forecasting a robust 41% surge in net to $1.83 a share from $1.30 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 15. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.

  Looking out to fiscal 2019 ending in June analysts predict a 21% increase in net to $2.22 a share from the anticipated $1.83 this fiscal year.

  Quarterly earnings will be strong.

  Net for the upcoming fourth quarter should surge 45% to 51 cents a share from the 35 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 54 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise. The company topped the consensus estimate the past two quarters by 9 cents a share and 9 cents.

  Going out to the first quarter of fiscal 2019, the Street predicts a 45% spurt in net to 58 cents a share from the 40 cents the year before.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MCFT for a move to $34 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $25.60.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability: Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Very Bullish.  MCF scored some big gains off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a strong up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bullish. MCFT rose 5 times after the past 6 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish. MCFT rose an average of 15.3% in May and 0.3% in June the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 9

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Small list of shorts Friday, but some interesting plays for bears.

TTD's short from Thursday was Mercadolibre Inc. (MELI) at $316.63. Friday, MELI drops to $309.01 and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Presideo Inc. (PSDO) - 13.27, down 2.18

Revenues Disappoint, TTD Sees Decline to 10

  PSDO, based in New York, provides information technology solutions. Annual revenues: $2.8 billion. PSDO's stock falls sharply Friday after coming in with disappointing revenues for the first quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, PSDO is trading a heavy 1 million shares, nine times its average daily volume of 112,000 shares.

  PSDO's stock gapped lower in the morning and touched an intraday low of $11.97.

  The stock then bounced up to $14.48. It then pulled back to around $13 and trended sideways the rest of the day.

  PSDO came in with first quarter net of 28 cents a share - in line with Street estimates. However, revenues missed estimates.

  The stock was downgraded by Wells Fargo to a hold and was cut in its rating by RBC Capital.

  Tape Action

  PSDO's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $15.45 in the prior session to as low as $13.17 Friday.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,387 shares crossed the tape at $13.72.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $15.45 on 3,561 shares late on Thursday.

  Business

  PSDO  focuses on digital infrastructure, cloud and security solutions.

  The company provides solutions for networking,  data analytics, data center modernization, hybrid and multi cloud, cyber risk management and enterprise mobility.

  PSDO's enterprise-class digital infrastructure solutions enable clients to deploy IT infrastructure which is cloud-flexible, mobile-ready, secure, and insight-driven.

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in June analysts are forecasting a 10% increase in net to $1.30 a share from $1.18 the year before.

  Net for the upcoming fourth quarter is expected to rise 9% to 35 cents a share from the 32 cents the year before. the company tends to come in close to Street estimates.

  Looking ahead to fiscal 2019, the Street predicts a 22% increase in net to $1.58 a share from the anticipated $1.30 this year.   

Charts:   

  PSDO's daily chart shows the stock peaking at $19.74 in early 2018. The stock then trended lower down to $14 by February. The stock trended in a range the next few months. Then Friday it gapped lower with big volume.

  The stock's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 15% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PSDO for a decline to $10 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $13.90.

Suitability: Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish.  PSDO rose just one time after the past 4 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bearish.  PSDO declined an average of 4.6% in May and fell 6.9% in June the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

  TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.  

 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)