|
|
Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, May 10 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 10 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Good number of breakouts today with some top performers. Stock market fades in the afternoon. Bulls be patient and selective on breakouts, perhaps scaling-in. TTD looks for a consolidation to take place in the stock market.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CTRP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CTRP, based in China, is a travel service provider for hotels, airline tickets and packaged tours in China. Annual revenues: $291 million. CTRP's stock, one of the strongest issues in the market, breaks out from a seven-week flat base today. The stock is close to make a new all-time high. So far today, CTRP is trading 3.3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.1 million shares. 
TTD highlighted CTRP as a stock to accumulate earlier this week.
CTRP's 10-minute chart shows the stock rallying in the morning and then crossing its breakpoint around midday.
As we turn into the close the stock is weakening a bit along with the stock market.
CTRP's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price climbing from $38.72 to a peak of $41.39.
A key trade took place around midday when a big block of 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $41.39. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $40.50. That shows some aggressive institutional buying interest.
CTRP sells packaged tours that include transportation and accommodations, as well as guided tours in some instances.
The company gets information on hotels and flights and enables its customers to make hotel and flight bookings.
It focuses the services primarily on business and leisure travelers in China. CTRP's subsidiaries include -Travel International Limited, Ctrip.com (Hong Kong) Limited, Ctrip Computer Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Ctrip Travel Network Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. and Ctrip Information Technology (Nantong) Co., Ltd.
CTRP's 12- month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 125% versus a 30% gain for the S&P 500 index.
CTRP's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 3 in 2004 to a peak at 35 in 2008. The stock was then dragged down with the bear market falling to 8. It has since come back strongly. It is in position to make a new all-time high. That is very bullish in that it shows there is potentially no "overhead resistance. Also, the stock could attract buying by the new-high crowd.
It needs to get over $42.30.
CTRP's daily chart shows the stock rising sharply today. The basing pattern works out to a flat base with a sharp shakeout to 32 recently. The stock is now rallying from the lower part of the base.
CTRPs' TTD momentum indictor (top of the chart) is now solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags. However, it is now staring to pick up some momentum. That would indicate CTRP is starting to attract strong buying.
This year, analysts forecast that CTRP's net will climb 32% to 90 cents a share from 68 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 43. That is high but justified by the earnings growth rate.
Looking out to 2011, analysts project a 31% gain in net to $1.18 a share from the anticipated 90 cents a year ago.
For the upcoming, second quarter analysts look for a 24% gain in net to 21 cents a share from 17 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 23 cents a share. The Street estimates have been drifting lower.
CTRP tends to exceed the consensus estimate. With the economy still improving, TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise for the quarter.
The company is continuing to expand via acquisitions.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CTRP for a move to 51. A protective stop can be placed near 38. TTD rates CTRP a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Morgan Stanley Inst. Mid Cap Growth Fund which purchased 2 million shares. It now has a 5.9% stake. The second largest fund holder is Ivy Asset Strategy, 5-star rated, with a 43.9% stake. It was a recent purchaser of 78,200 shares. CTRP has 136.2 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 13 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, down from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|
TTD's Profile Rating Ctrip.com International - (CTRP) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PRGS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HMIN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DFT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TDC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks so far today. Bears remain patient and selective.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
AMED, based in Baton Rouge, La., provides home health services to the chronic, co-morbid, aging American population. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. AMED's stock fall sharply today on heavy volume. The company received a letter of inquiry from the Senate Finance committee. The letter stemmed from concern about home health to patients. So far today, AMED is trading 2.7 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 607,000 shares. TTD sees potential for more on the downside. 
The market response to the news was very bearish.
AMED's stock gapped lower at the opening. It hit a low of 50.10. The stock then bounced up 53 and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
AMED's tape action shows the big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks working lower from $55.13 to $51.56 in the morning. It then lifted slightly. The block activity mirrored the price action in the stock during the day.
AMED operates in home health and hospice care.
AMED provides services to individuals who may be recovering from surgery, have a chronic disease or disability or terminal illness and need assistance with the essential activities of daily living.
Its typical home health patient is Medicare eligible, approximately 83 years old, takes approximately 12 different medications on a daily basis and has co-morbidities.
Its hospice agencies provide palliative care and comfort to terminally ill patients and their families.
This year analysts forecast a 15% increase in AMED's net to $5.63 a share from $4.89 a year ago. Going out to 2011, profits are expected to decline 5% to $5.34 a share from the anticipated $4.89 a share.
AMED's chart shows the gap drop with big volume today. The stock undercuts key technical support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator had shown some modest weakness. However, the news today appeared to surprise the market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMED for a decline to 45 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed 55.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
