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Ticker Tape Digest

“Professional Report”

Thursday - May 14, 2009


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

TTD Quick Trade Stocks. These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about an  80% win rate.

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Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show

(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time)


Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - May 14

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Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -   Only a two breakouts today as stock market rallies. Bulls remain selective and patient. Market still vulnerable to a pull back after recent rally.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Kensey Nash Corp. (KNSY) - 24.99,  up 2.64 - Breakpoint 23.35

Net to Climb 67% for Fiscal 2009, then Slow to 8% next Year,  TD Targets 30

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KNSY  -  BELOW AVERAGE

  KNSY, based in Exton, Pa., makes a line of absorbable medical devices for the sealing of arterial punctures. Annual revenues: $83 million. KNSY is a small cap medical play that breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move comes on a good expansion in volume which followed a strong volume day on Wednesday. The company made a presentation to analysts on Wednesday. The tape action would indicate they made a presentation that was taken bullishly by the Street.

  So far today, KNSY' stock is up about 2 points. Volume is running at 132,094 shares, double its normal daily volume of  71,000 shares.

  On Wednesday, the stock traded 115,000 shares. Obviously, KNSY is a thinly traded issue.

  Wednesday, KNSY officers made a presentation at the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference in New York at the Palace Hotel.

  KNSY's stock rose sharply in the morning, peaked in the early afternoon and then drifted back a bit in the final hours of trading today. TTD's clip of the tape shows one of the larger trades. It was block of 1,300 shares that crossed on a modest up tick to $23 from the prior trade at $22.97.

  KNSY makes a proprietary line of absorbable medical devices for the sealing of arterial punctures created during diagnostic and therapeutic cardiovascular procedures, such as angiography, angioplasty, and the placement of stents.

 The company's product for performing this procedure is the 8-10 French (8-10F) size Angio-Seal Device. The Angio-Seal is sold in the United States and internationally. The company also produces collagen-based burn treatments, wound dressings, and dental surgery aids.

   TTD's performance chart shows KNSY's stock appreciating 13% the past six months. That compares with a 4% gain in the S&P 500 index. So, KNSY as slightly outperformed the market.

  TTD's long-term chart shows KNSY moving lower during the bear market. It has now turned up and is acting well. However, there is a lot of overhead resistance in the high-20s. The stock will need to show good strength in coming weeks to prove its moxie.

  KNSY's daily chart shows the breakout today. It comes with a widening of the daily spread (range from high to low). That shows good ease of movement and good demand for this thinly traded issue.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. That shows there has been good buying in the stock in recent weeks.

  The tape action would indicate that KNSY. One can go to their website and TTD would expect them to post a webcast of the meeting. At this point, KNSY has not done that yet.

  This fiscal year ending June 30, analysts predict a 67% surge in net to $1.65 a share from 99 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  14. That would seem low, but is just reasonable given the outlook for 2010 net.

   Net for the next fiscal year is projected to rise a modest 8% to $1.79 a share from the anticipated $1.65 a share this year.

  For the fiscal third quarter, KNSY reported strong net of 42 cents a share, up from 29 cents a year ago. The company said sales in the quarter benefited from increased revenues from cardiovasular linked products due to ordering patterns from St. Jude Medical.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter should increase 7% to 38 cents a share from 35 cents a year ago.

 Strategy Opinion: KNSY's breakout today is okay, but the stock does have some difficulties ahead. There is strong overhead resistance in the high-20s and earnings growth will slow. So, TTD suggests being cautious on this breakout. We think the stock could get to 30 if all goes well. We would treat KNSY as just a trading play off this breakout. A protective stop can be set net 22. TTD rates KNSY a below average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Brown Capital Mgmt. Small Company Fund with a 3.6% stake. It has held its position steady. KNSY has only 11 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 3.2 million shares.

  Insider Activity:  Bearish. Steady insider selling the past few months. There has been very little insider buying. Three analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, the same as three months ago.



 Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Kensey Nash Corp.  (KNSY)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High   YES
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term   YES  
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook     YES
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success   YES
Fund Sponsorship   YES
Total Score 7 1 4

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NKTR  -  BELOW AVERAGE


TTD’s Feature Stock Under Accumulation

(Trading strategy: Purchase of these stocks is done when either the stock is still in a base, or has emerged and is acting very bullish. Purchase while a stock still is basing should be a scale-in strategy with the final buying to be done on a breakout from a base. Buying of these stocks when they are trending higher can be done aggressively.)


Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) - 53.89

Set a Stop Buy at 57 to Catch the Breakout

Profits to Soar 74% This Year, TTD Targets 67 after a breakout

    AEM, based in Toronto, produces and explores for gold in North America and Finland. Annual revenues: $380 million. AEM is part of the gold sector which is acting well today as the price of gold climbs $3 an ounce to 928..AEM is in a five-month flat base. The stock is now advancing the lower part of its base and looks ready to attack its breakpoint. With strong earnings coming this year and next, AEM looks to be a good play to move higher after a breakout.

  AEM is up about a point today. Volume is running at 3.2 million shares. The stock's average daily volume is 4 million shares.

  AEM's stock moved lower in the morning, but then turned around about 9 a.m. It drove strongly higher into the early afternoon. It is now coasting into the final bell.

  The tape action is bullish. TTD's clip highlights a big block of 15,200 shares that crossed on a modest up tick to $52.79 from the prior trade at $52.77. The tape action indicated good institutional buying interest.

  AEM operates the LaRonde and Goldex mines in northwestern Quebec and the Kittila mine in Finland. It has two other projects that should begin production in the next 18 months and bring the company's production capacity to more than 1 million ounces of gold.

  TTD's long-term chart shows that AEM had a strong run up in 2006 and 2007. It went into a bear market in 2008, but turned up late in the year. AEM is now in an up trend long-term.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock working higher from 44 a few weeks ago to the low-50s. The current base is bracketed between 45 and 58, roughly. The stock may have a way to go, but the technicals are shaping up nicely for bulls.

 The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is solidly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has lagged but has now turned up.

  AEM's stock performance will be linked to the price of gold.

  The company's earnings outlook is very bullish. This year, analysts project a 74% jump in net to 73 cents a share from 42 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  75. That is obviously high. However, it is justified by the outlook for 2010 earnings..

  Analysts predict net for 2010 will soar 186% to $2.09 a share from the anticipated 73 cents a share this year.

  Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to surge 123% to 13 cents a share from 6 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 21 cents a share. So, some analysts see potential for a big quarter. The company is benefiting from strong gold production with favorable prices.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD suggests one can take a partial stake in AEM. However, the key is to enter on a breakout. So, one can set a stop buy at 57. TTD is targeting AEM for a move to 67 after a breakout. A protective stop can be set at 55 after a breakout. That is tight. TTD rates AEM as a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on target.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund with a 2.1% stake. The 4-star rated fund has held its position steady. Also, 4-star rated Hartford Capital Appreciation Fund was a recent purchaser of 1.1 million shares. AEM has 154 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 33.9 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, the same as three months ago. 



Illumina Inc. (ILMN)  - 35.49

Set a Stop Buy at 39.15 to catch the Breakout

Stock still sets up well in base, tape bullish. Net to jump 42% This Year.


Rackspace Hosting Inc. (RAX) - 9.35

Set a Stop Buy at 9.80 to catch the Breakout

Stock pushes toward breakout, tape strong. Profits to rise 16% this year.


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies. Bears be selective and patient.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Commvault Systems Inc. (CVLT) - 11.37, down 1.02

Quarterly Earnings Disappoint, TTD Sees Slide to 9

  CVLT, based in Oceanport, N.J., makes software. It began as a Lucent Technologies business that was spun out in 1996 by Sprout Group, a venture-capital firm. Annual revenues: $235 million. CVLT's stock falls sharply on massive volume today after the company came in with disappointing earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 30. The heavy selling indicates flight from the stock. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, CVLT is off about one point. Volume is running at 2.8 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 393,000 shares.

  The stock fell sharply in the premarket trading. It bounced up a bit and then trended sideways during the day.

  CVLT reported fiscal fourth quarter net declined to 9 cents a share from 19 cents a year ago. The 9 cents was well below the consensus estimate on the Street of 15 cents a share.

 CMVT produces a software platform, now known as Simpana, to help companies manage their storage resources, independent of platform or location.

 The company generates all of its revenue from licenses and services related to its flagship Simpana software package.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending June 30 is expected to be flat at 8 cents a share

  CVLT came public in late 2006. The stock peaked at 23 in 2007 and since then has been in a down trend. TTD's daily chart shows the breakdown today from a rising trend line. The stock was acting well the past few weeks, but now has fallen off the shelf.

  Strategy Opinion: CVLT is a good trading short. TTD is targeting CVLT for a decline to 9 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)