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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, May 10 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 10 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Very few breakouts as stock market falls sharply on European concerns. Bulls be patient and selective on breakouts, perhaps scaling-in. TTD looks for a consolidation to take place in the stock market over the next few weeks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DISH - AVERAGE |
DISH, based in Englewood, Co., is a pay-television provider across the United States. Annual revenues: $11.8 billion. DISH's stock moves higher today and edges out from an 11-week flat base. The stock's move higher in the face of a sharp market decline Friday was aided by a favorable court ruling against TIVO (TIVO). So far today, DISH is trading 11.7 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 3.6 million shares. 
TTD highlighted DISH at our midsession show on the Web Friday.
DISH won an appeal for the court to rehear a digital video recorder patent dispute with TIVO. TIVO won the first court case 2-1 by the three-judge panel. TIVO's stock fell sharply today. (see TTD" short Report Today).
DISH's stock surged in the morning (see 10-minute chart). It then trended sideways the rest of the session weakening a bit late in the session.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in DISH.
One can see the price for the blocks jumping in the morning from $21.96 to $23.48.
The tape action showed good institutional buying interest in DISH.
The stock was one of the few breakouts today.
The company provides programming, which includes some 280 basic video channels, 60 Sirius Satellite Radio music channels, 30 movie channels, 35 regional and specialty sports channels, 2,500 local channels, 220 Latino and international channels, and 50 channels of pay-per-view content.
DISH provides local channel coverage to markets covering about 97% of United States television households. In addition, it provided high definition local channels to markets representing 93% of United States television households.
DISH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 43% versus 25% for the S&P 500 index.
DISH's long-term chart shows the stock soaring in the bull market of 199 and 2000. The stock then fell in the subsequent bear market. Most recently, the stock fell in the bear market of 2007 and 2008 dropping from 45 to 8.34. It has since came back modestly.
DISH's daily chart shows the stock driving sharply higher today. It backed off a bit late in the day. The stock was in a base with an upside breakpoint at $22.12. That was lifted to $22.92 creating a breakout zone.
The fade in the stock today was due in part to the weak stock market.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
DISH's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend.
DISH should show an acceleration in quarterly earnings. That is often a key fundamental driver that can send a stock higher.
Net for the second quarter is expected to climb 52% and then in the third quarter 125%.
The Street looks for second quarter net to come in at 52 cents a share, up from 34 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 62 cents a share.
The past few quarters DISH has topped the consensus estimate by 6% to 21%. So, TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise.
Net for the third quarter should come in at 41 cents a share, up from 18 cents a year ago.
Overall, net for the year should climb 17% to $1.89 a share from $1.62 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 12. TTD sees that as low making the stock a potentially low-risk play.
Strategy Opinion: DISH's breakout today is news-related. However, the company has good earnings fundamentals. TTD is targeting DISH for a move to 28 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 20.50. TTD rates DISH a conservative long-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The larges fund buyer recently was Eagle Mid Cap Stock Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 1.9 million shares. The second largest fund holder is four-star rated Goldman Sachs Mid Cap Value Fund with a 1.4% stake. DISH has 447 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity. Currently, 16 analysts follow the stock, 10 have a buy, up from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating Dish Network Corp. - (DISH) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 1 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VCLK - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 10
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Breakdown list expands today as stock market falls sharply over European problems. Bears be selective. TTD's feature short on Thursday was Amedisys Inc. (AMED) - 52, down 4.21. Today, the stock has fallen to 49.80. It is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
. TIVO, based in Alviso, Ca., provides television technology that enable consumers to manage, control, watch, and record live television and receive thousands of movies and television shows from cable, broadcast, and broadband sources. Annual revenues: $237 million. TIVO's stock falls sharply after a federal court allowed Dish Network Corp. to a appeal a ruling hat it infringed patents on digital video technology held by TIVO. 
TIVO's stock is down sharply today. Volume is running at an extremely heavy 48.8 million shares. 18 times its normal daily volume of 2.6 million shares.
TIVO's stock went into a nosedive in the morning. It failed to rally and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks. A key trade came in the morning when a big bock of 37,400 shares crossed the tape at $12.76. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $17.37.
The tape action showed aggressive selling by institutions.
TIVO said it still believes it will win the law case with Dish.
TIVO's services are made available through digital video recorders and it has agreements to offer services for non-DVR products in the future.
The company distributes the TiVo DVR through consumer electronics retailers and through its on-line store at TiVo.com.
It has distribution agreements with Comcast, Cox, and satellite television providers, including DIRECTV, as well as international cable and broadcasting companies, such as Seven Networks in Australia and New Zealand and Virgin Media in the United Kingdom. TiVo receives revenues from three main sources: consumer service, licensing of technology to television service providers and media services.
This year, analysts forecast TIVO will show a loss of 42 cents a share compared with a loss of 23 cents a year ago.
TIVO's chart shows the big breakdown today. The stock has retraced everything it had gained on a prior move higher. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TIVO for a decline to 7.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 11.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
