Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, May 16 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 14 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts. Bulls be selective. Stock market still in a trading range. However, chances for a turn up. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -RDWR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
RDWR, based in Israel, makes products that manage and direct internet traffic. Annual revenues: $167 million. RDWR's stock breaks out today from an eight-week flat base. The move was triggered by reports RDWR may be able to swing a deal to license its software to Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR). So far today, RDWR is trading a heavy 937,199 shares, five times its normal daily volume of 184,000 shares.
The word is that RDWR may be able to license its ADC engine technology and then possibly get $70 to 100 million over the next 3 to 5 years.
RDWR's stock gapped higher Wednesday. It hit an intraday high of $40.83 in the morning. The stock then backed off a bit and trended sideways. Late in the day, the stock began to rally again.
RDWR's tape action shows the recent big blocks.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $37.26 to a peak of $40.39 in the morning. In the late afternoon, there was some selling.
The key bullish block trade for the day came when 16,183 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $39.50. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $37.26.
RDRWR makes products that manage and direct Internet traffic among network resources to enable continuous access to Web sites and other services, applications and content/
RDWR offers a broad range of internet traffic management solutions to service providers, e-commerce businesses and corporate enterprises that require uninterrupted availability and optimal performance of IP-based applications that are critical to their business.
RDWR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 15% versus a breakeven for the S&P 500 index.
RDWR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 6 back in 2002 to a peak of 33.75 in early 2004. The stock then drifted lower the next few years and was finally dragged down to $5.30 in early 2009. It has since rallied strongly and is poised to possibly make a new 12-year high.
RDWR's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 26 to 38. the stock put down a flat base. In early May, RDWR drifted lower due in part to the weakness in the stock market.
However, Tuesday and Wednesday it has sprinted higher on the license speculation. The move has come with strong volume. That is almost a cinch a deal could being coming fourth
RDWR's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend. That shows there was good buying in the base prior to the breakout.
This year, analysts forecast RDWR's earnings will climb 39% to $1.53 a share from $1.10 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 25.
Next year, the Street looks for a 17% gain in net to $1.79 a share form the anticipated $1.53 this year. A license deal could trigger an upgrading in the earnings estimates.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should leap 48% to 37 cents a share from 25 cents a year ago. Going out to the third quarter net is projected to rise 39% to 39 cents a share from 28 cents the year before. RDWR has tended to slightly exceed the consensus estimate.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RDWR for a move to 50. It could come quickly if a deal goes through. A protective stop can be placed near 37.
TTD rates RDWR a very good intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings outlook
Sponsorship: Very Good. Overall, many funds holding the stock have been recent buyers. A key buyer recently was Century Small Cap Select Inst. Fund which purchased 60,800 shares. The 4-star fund has a 1.1% stake. Also, top fund holder Vanguard Explorer Fund, 3-star rated, was a recent purchaser of 206,250 shares. RDWR has 20.5 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 47% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Not available. Three analysts follow the stock, and all 3 have a buy, the same sentiment as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Radware Ltd. - (RDWR) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume on Breakout | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KOF - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DRI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BOBE - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of shorts today. Retail stocks get knocked down due to earnings disappointments. Bears be venturesome. TTD's short from Tuesday was Peabody Energy (BTU) at 26.40. Today, the stock has declined to $25.37 and is working well for bears.
ANF, based in New Albany, Ohio, sells men, women and childten's clothes. Annual revenues: $4.2 billion. ANF's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a big drop in earnings. So far today, ANF is trading 12.8 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 2.6 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
ANF reported that net for the fiscal firs quarter ending in April dropped to 3 cents a share from 28 cents a share a year ago. The market took the news very bearishly.
Comparable store sales dropped 5%. The company also gave a disappointing forecast.
ANF's stock fell at the opening and hit an intraday low of 38.26 in the early afternoon. The stock then lifted slightly later in the day.
ANF's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $45.50 to $38.70. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 57,000 shares crossed the tape at $43.25.That was down from the prior block trade at $45.50.
ANF runs the Abercrombie & Fitch store selling clothes. It also has a catalogue, a magazine/catalogue and a website.
ANF's daily chart shows the stock taking a dive late last year from around 75 down to 45. The stock then trended sideways for several months. Today, it gaps lower on big volume setting up the good possibility of more on the downside.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ANF for a drop to 31.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 42.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -ANF - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)