Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 16 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 2
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Only a few breakouts today. Stock market rallies to finish mixed. Bulls go slow now and be patient and watch all stops.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NLSN - AVERAGE |
NLSN, based in Diemne, provides media marketing information. Annual revenues: $5.2 billion. NLSN's stock breaks out today from a small, four-week base and makes a new high. The stock came public earlier this year and has been acting strong. So far today, NLSN is trading 1.8 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 741,000 shares.
TTD highlighted NLSN as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
Although, the base is small, the stock is acting strong and outperforming the stock market.
NLSN's 10-minute chart shows NLSN breaking out in the morning with strong volume. The stock cleared is breakpoint nicely and in the afternoon trended sideways.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price of the blocks climbing from $30.90 to a peak of $32.34. The tape action shows consistent institutional buying even though the stock market was acting weak for most of the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 27,500 shares crossed the tape at $31.60. That was up from the prior block trade at $30.90.
NLSN provides clients with media and marketing information and analytics about what consumers watch on television, online and via mobile devices.
The company operates through three units. what consumers watch, what consumers buy and Expositions.
. The Watch segment provides viewership data and analytics primarily to the media and advertising industries across television, online and mobile screens.
The Buy segment provides retail transactional measurement data, consumer behavior information and analytics primarily to businesses in the consumer packaged goods industry.
The Expositions segment operates portfolios of business-to-business trade shows in the United States. Nielsen Holdings B.V. is based in New York, New York.
NLSN's 6-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 28% versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500 index.
NLSN's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in January and trading around 25. The stock has been trending higher nicely and in an orderly way.
NLSN's daily chart shows the stock clearing key upside resistance at 28 in April. Through most of may it consolidated. Now it pushes higher.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is lagging. That shows the buying underlying the advance is a bit weak. So, the stock needs to be watched closely.
This year, analysts forecast a 91% gain in earnings to $1.43 a share from 75 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22. TTD sees that as low given the growth potential in net.
Going out to 2012, the Street is projecting a 27% gain in net to $1.83 a share from the anticipated $1.43 for this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should be 35 cents a share. No comparison was available from a year ago. The company does have a tendency sometimes to surprise big on the upside.
Strategy Opinion: NLSN is hot. The stock is acting very strong. TTD is targeting NLSN for a move to 40 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 29. TTD rates NLSN a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund with a 0.73% stake. The 5-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 2.6 million shares. Also, 5-star rated Columbia Contrarian Core Fund was a recent purchaser of 113,400 shares. NLSN has 358 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity. Seven analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from none three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Nielsen Holdings N.V. - (NLSN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AVEO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - The Max
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today as stock market turns mixed with the blue chips falling due to weakness in Hewlett Packard (HPQ). Bears be venturesome.
TX, based in Luxembourg, produces steel products. Annual revenues: $7.9 billion. TX's stock cuts below key technical support today. The stock has been trending lower since peaking earlier this year. So far today, TX is trading 726,924 shares. Its average daily volume is 688,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside as earnings growth slows in the next two quarters.
TX's stock fell in the morning hitting an intraday low of 31. The stock rallied in the afternoon to trim its loss as the stock market made a come back, but remained in the red.
TX's tape action shows the large block trades recently. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $32.10 to as low as $31.03 by Tuesday morning. The price for the blocks then lifted.
TX produces flat and long steel products in South America.
This year analysts forecast a 17% increase in net to $3.62 a share from $3.10 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 8.
However, net for the next two quarters will be soft. Net for the second quarter should rise a modest 2% and then in the third quarter 5%. Net for the second quarter should come in at 96 cents a share compared with 92 cents a year ago.
TX's chart shows the stock trending lower. It tried hold at 32, but is now giving ground. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for the past two months. Most importantly, the accumulation - distribution line is in a down trend. (see lower part of chart). That means the stock has been under steady selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TX for a decline to 26 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32.90.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TX - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)