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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Tuesday, May 18

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Wedneday, May 19

Go To Prior Days TTD "Reports"

Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature  - Monday, May 17

Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 17


Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short


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Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday, May 19,  2010


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades"  (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets

 (See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)


Conservative Bearish Investors  (swing traders).  "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long  These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.

  TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Just three breakouts today. Stock market continues to act bearish. Bulls be patient and selective on breakouts, perhaps scaling-in. TTD looks for a consolidation to eventually evolve with a sideways pattern.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE  Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


TTD's Featured  Stock

Dollar General Corp. (DG) - 30.15, up 0.86 - Breakpoint 29.83

Hits New High Today, Net to Climb 27% in Fiscal 2011, TTD Targets 37

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DG - ABOVE  AVERAGE

   DG, based in Goodletsvile, Ten., is a discount retailer. Annual revenues: $11.8 billion. DG's stock breaks out from a 5-week flat base today and hits a new high. The stock is one of the best acting issues of the past several weeks even though the stock market has been moving lower. So far today, DG is trading 949,359 shares. Its average daily volume is 1.1 million shares.

  DG's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out from its base around midday. It was able to hold above the breakpoint late in the day.

  The stock has done well this year climbing from 21 to 30. It has a beta of 1.07 meaning it is as volatile as the stock market which has a beta of 1.00.

   TTD's clip of the tape shows DG's recent big block trades.

   One can see the price for the blocks working up from $29.26 to $29.99. The movement is not great, but does show the stock under institutional buying interest while the stock was getting pounded.

  DG has 8,877 stores in 35 states, primarily in the southern, southwestern, Midwestern and eastern United States.

 The company offers consumables, seasonal, home products and apparel.

 Its merchandise includes national brands from Procter & Gamble, Kimberly Clark, Unilever, Kellogg's, General Mills, Nabisco, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, as well as private brand selections.

 The company is a subsidiary of Buck Holdings, L.P., a limited partnership controlled by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.

  DG's 6-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 28% versus a 2% gain for the S&P 500 index.

   DG's long-term chart shows the stock initiating trading in 2009 around 22. The stock has advanced steadily and is in a long-term up trend.

  DG's daily chart shows the five-week base and the breakout today. The base is well formed. It is above the rising 50-day moving average line which shows it is in an up trend.

  The stock will need to show a follow through on the upside and a pick up in volume to confirm the breakout's strength.

  DG's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) showed a big drop in April. That reflected a 26 million common stock offering. The AD Line lags. It would be good for that to show an improvement. It deserves watching.

  This fiscal year ending January 31, 2011, analysts predict DG's earnings will climb 27% to $1.62 a share from $1.28 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18. That is low given the earnings growth rate.

  Next fiscal year, 2012, the Street projects a 20% gain in net to $1.95 a share from the anticipated $1.62 this fiscal year.

  The company has benefited from the weak economy and for the need for consumers to seek lower prices.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending April 30, earnings are expected to be up 32% to 34 cents a share from 26 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 37 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise. In the prior quarter, DG surpassed the consensus estimate by 5 cents a share.

  Strategy Opinion: DG is a conservative breakout play. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 37. A protective stop can be placed near 27. TTD rates DG an average intermediate-term play with low downside risk.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund with a 0.88% stake. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund which purchased 1.9 million shares. DG has 340.8 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Some big institutions have been heavy sellers this year. The latest price was at $25.92. Right now, 14 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, down from 10 three months ago.


    


  Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.    

  


TTD's Profile Rating

Dollar General Corp. - (DG)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume     YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


 


Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FDO - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - QSFT - BELOW AVERAGE

 


Weekly - Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, May 17

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 9

Stocks Screened - 8,2007

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Modest list of breakdown stocks today as stock market remains in near-term downtrend. Bears be selective. TTD's short play from Tuesday was  Au Optronics Corp. (AUO) - 9.98, down 0.38. Today, it has declined to 9.67 and is working well for bears so far.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Interoil Corp. (IOC) - 51.49, down 4.79

Net to be Fall 66%, TTD Sees Drop to 43

. IOC, based in Papua New Guinea, oil and gas producer. Annual revenues: $710 million. IOC's stock breaks below key support today opening the way for potentially more on the downside. IOC is expected to show a big drop in earnings this year. So far today, the stock is trading 2.1 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 913,000 shares.

  IOC's stock fell early in the session along with the stock market. The stock hit a low of 50.56 around midday. It then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.

  The tape action showed heavy institutional selling pressure.

  A look at IOC's big block trades the past few days shows the price for the blocks declining from $63.80 to $51.38. The latest block today was 75,000 shares at a lower price than the prior block. So, the selling pressure remains on IOC.

  IOC explores for natural gas and oil structures in Papua New Guinea seeking to commercializing discoveries.

 The commercialization of the Elk and Antelope fields include the development of a proposed condensate stripping facility and development of gas production facilities for liquefied natural gas.

 The company also produces refined petroleum products at Napa Napa in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea for the domestic market and for export.

  This year, analysts forecast a 66% drop in earnings to 22 cents a share from 66 cents a year ago. Net for the upcoming second quarter should be down 50% and then in the third quarter off 41%.

    IOC's daily chart shows the stock undercutting key support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for several weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is rolling over.

    Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting IOC for a drop to 43 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 53.


  


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)