Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Friday, May 19, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 15, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - May 19, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Selective list of breakouts with some interesting plays. Homebuilding stocks continue to breakout.
Stock market - Dow and S&P bearish on a daily basis, but Nasdaq remains bullish.
Stock Market Momentum
(Based on 14 unit moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RAVN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
RAVN, based in Sioux Falls, S.D., provides products to customers in the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction and defense markets. Annual revenues: $277 million. RAVN's stock moves higher Friday and breakouts from a 12-week base.
TTD featured RAVN Thursday as a stock to accumulate in anticipation of a breakout..
So far today, RAVN is trading 194.594 shares. Its average daily volume is 116,000 shares.
RAVN's stock rose steadily through the day. It reached an intraday high of $32.65 late in the session.
It gave some ground in the final hour. (See 10-minute chart)
Tape Action
RAVN's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $31.50 in the prior session to as high as $32.25 Friday.
A key block trade came in the morning when 6,252 shares duplicated crossed the tape at $31.55.
That was up from the prior block trade at $31.50 on 1,596 shares late the day before.
Near the close a block of 14,267 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $32.20.
That actually came on an up tick in the sequence from a prior trade at $32.15 on 100 shares.
Business
RAVN operates through three units: Applied Technology Division, Engineered Films Division and Aerostar Division.
The Applied Technology unit makes agriculture products and information management tools for growers.
The Engineered Films unit produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane and industrial applications.
The Aerostar unit makes balloons, tethered aerostats and radar processing systems.
Charts
RAVN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 84% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have not been active.
RAVN's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $10 in 2009 to a peak of $42.99 in 2013. The stock then fell back to $12.88 in 2016. Since then RAVN has rallied to a two year high of $32.20.
RAVN's daily chart shows the stock spiking higher in February to around $31.
The stock pulled back and formed a cup-an-handle base.
The breakout Friday shows a good widening of the daily spread.
Volume has increased modestly.
RAVN's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This fiscal year ending in January of 2018 analysts are forecasting a 39% surge in profits to 78 cents a share from 56 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 39. TTD sees that as reasonable given the earnings growth rate.
Going out to fiscal 2019 ending in January, the Street predicts a 15% increase in net to 90 cents a share from 78 cents the year before.
Quarterly profit growth will be strong and show a modest acceleration in growth.
Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in April should leap 60% to 24 cents a share from 15 cents the year before.
Then in the second quarter ending in July profits are expected to jump 67% to 20 cents a share from 12 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RAVN for a move to $40. A protective stop can be placed near $29.
TTD rates RAVN an average intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of RAVN's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Above Average. RAVN has scored some solid gains off its breakouts. The stock is now in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Below Average. RAVN has risen only 5 times after the past 16 earnings reports. So, watching earnings will be important.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Above Average. RAVN has risen an average of 3.5% the past five Mays and 1% in June.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
23% |
2/16/2017 | 25.66 | 31.55 | Still in play |
16% |
8/23/2016 | 21.68 | 25.18 | 8/29/2016 |
23% |
7/26/2016 | 20.45 | 25.18 | 8/29/2016 |
55% | 5/19/2016 | 16.18 | 25.18 | 8/29/2016 |
22% | 11/18/2013 | 34.94 | 42.53 | 12/24/2013 |
5% | 1/4/2012 |
32.37 |
33.98 | 2/2/2012 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Raven Industries Inc. - (RAVN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DOV - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KBH - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CORT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LII - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Friday. Bears be conservative.
Fl, based in New York, sells shoes and apparel. Annual revenues: $7.8 billion. FL's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. The drop was triggered by disappointing earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted FL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, FL is trading a heavy 16.9 million shares, 11 times its average daily volume.
FL gapped lower in the morning and touched an intraday low of $58.13.
The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day. It was unable to lift at all in the afternoon.
FL reported net for the fiscal first quarter ending in April of $1.36 a share. That was below the Street consensus estimate of $1.38 a share. It was also below the lowest Street estimate of $1.37 a share.
Tape Action
FL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $64.25 in the morning to as low as $58.60.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 11,518 shares crossed at $64.
That was down from the prior block trade at $64.25 on 25,337 shares.
Business
FL operates athletic stores and direct-to-customer services.
The company operates Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Champs Sports, Footaction, Runners Point, Sidestep and SIX:02.
The Direct-to-Customers segment is multi-branded and sells directly to customers through Internet and mobile sites and catalogs.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in January of 2018, analysts have been forecasting net to rise 9% to $5.28 a share from $4.82 the year before.
Charts:
FL's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume.
FL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock even versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
There was some light insider buying earlier this year at $11.66. Insiders were sellers around $74 to $77.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FL for a decline to $50 within the next few months, or sooner. Bears can average into the position. A protective stop buy can be placed near $61.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Average. FL rose 7 out of the past 12 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Activity -- Bearish. FL has declined an average of 5% in May
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FL - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)