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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, May 17 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 17 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Just one breakout today. Stock market drops sharply as it continues to act bearish. Bulls be patient and selective on the longside. Stock market needs to stabilize. All time indicators are bearish.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Bearish
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AAP - AVERAGE |
AAP, based in Roanoke, Va., sells auto aftermarket parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items in the U.S. Annual revenues: $5.4 billion. AAP's stock breaks out from a six-week flat base today and hits a new all-time high. The driver for the move was a report of strong first quarter profits. AAP's stock was the star of a day when the stock market fell sharply. 
TTD highlighted AAP as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web.
AAP's 10 minute chart shows the stock moving higher in the morning with strong volume. The fuel for the move was the strong profits. The stock held its gain and well above its breakpoint through the session.
AAP reported earnings for the first quarter increased 21% to $1.19 a share from 98 cents a share a year ago. The $1.19 topped the consensus estimate on the Street at $1 a share.
So the news was a big upside surprise and the stock responded bullishly to the news. 
AAP's tape action shows the big block trades recently.
One can see a key block trade in the morning when 37,200 shares traded at $48.85, up from the prior block trade that went off at $46.09. That showed good institutional demand. However, late in the days some block went off at lower prices indicating some profit taking.
AAP’s stores carry a product line for cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light trucks.
The Company serves both do-it-yourself and commercial) customers. AAP operates in two business segments: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and Autopart International (AI).
The AAP unit consists of its stores - Advance Auto Parts, Advance Discount Auto Parts and Western Auto. The Autopart unit consists solely of the operations of Autopart International. It serves the commercial market.
AAP's 6-month performance chat shows the stock appreciating 25% versus a 2% decline in the S&P 500 index. So, most recently the stock is an outperformer.
AAP's long-term chart shows the stock breaking out from a five-year flat base. The push to a new high is extremely bullish long-term. 
AAP's daily chart shows the gap breakout to the upside today and the expansion in volume.
The breakout is ideal even though it is in a way overshadowed by the big selloff in the stock market today.
AAP's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. That shows there ha been good buying in the stock leading up to today's bullish earnings report.
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 10% increase in AAP's net to $3.30 a share from $3 a year ago. TTD would expect $3.40 a share for this year, a 13% increase in net.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to rise 10% to 98 cents a share from 89 cents a year ago.
AAP's sales are running at 8.7%. The company said it is benefiting from the opening of 57 new stores during the past 12 months. Also, profit margins for the quarter rose slightly.
Strategy Opinion: AAP is a conservative breakout play due to its modest earnings growth. TTD is targeting AAP for a move to 57 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 46 which is tight. TTD rates AAP an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund buyer recently was Perkins Mid Cap Value Fund, 5-star rated, which purchased 2.2 million shares recently. It is the second largest fund holder with a 2.3% stake. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity VIP Mid Cap Svc. Fund with a big 7.1% stake. AAP has 92.3 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been light buyers using stock options. They have done no selling. Right now, 20 analysts follow the stock, 11 have a buy, up from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating Advance Auto Parts Inc. - (AAP) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - None - AVERAGE |
None
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - max
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Many shorts today as stock market breaks down sharply. Bears be selective looking for stocks with fundamental weakness. TTD's short play from Wednesday was Interoil Corp. (IOC) - 51.49, down 4.79. Today the stock has dropped to 48.40 and working very well for bears so far.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
.HP, based in Tulsa, is a contract drilling firm for oil and gas. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. HP's stock falls below key support at 35 today to resume its down trend. The stock has been working lower since peaking at 48 in January. So far today, HP is trading 2.5 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.5 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
Oil stocks have been weak recently. HP's stock gapped lower in the morning. It bottomed in the early afternoon at 33.09. It lifted late in the day as the stock market rallied. However, it was still off sharply.
TTD's clip of the tape shows HP's recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $36.57 to $33.23. A key bearish trade took place back on May 18. That is when a big block of 125,000 shares crossed at $36.40. That was below the prior block that crossed at $36.57.
HP does land drilling in the U.S., offshore drilling and international land drilling.
The U.S. drilling is done mostly in Oklahoma, California, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Utah, Arkansas, New Mexico, and North Dakota.
The offshore drilling is done in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore of California, Trinidad and Equatorial Guinea. The international land segment operated in Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Mexico and Tunisia.
This fiscal year ending in September analysts forecast a 29% drop in earnings to $2.33 a share from $3.28 a year ago. Net for the recently reported fiscal second quarter dropped 50%.
HP's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key support near 36 going back several months. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HP for a decline to 27 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 36.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
