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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - January 7, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

Quote or chart

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -   Good number of breakouts with some good growth firms. Market lifts late in the day. Bulls remain selective and cautious watching all stops.

Long-Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market Status (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Healthways Inc. (HWAY)  63.58,  up 5.11 - Breakpoint 62

Profits to Soar 46 in Fiscal 2008, TTD Targets 73

HWAY, based in Nashville, provides specialized, comprehensive care-enhancement and disease-management services for individuals with diabetes, coronary disease, and other illnesses. HWAY - a TTD accumulation buy on Friday - blasts out from its ten-week base today driving sharply higher in the morning. The stock held its gain well through the day even though the stock market fell sharply intraday.

HWAY is trading 2.1 million shares today. That is four times its normal daily volume of 452,000 shares. So, the breakout is well supported with strong buying.

TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock acting strong in the morning. A big block of 10,000 shares crossed at 62, an up tick from the prior trade at $61.95. After that trade, two big blocks crossed at $62.

The company is giving a presentation at JP Morgan Health Conference in San Francisco. The company also said a change in Medicare payments will not impact its earnings.

To improve health and reduce health-care expenses, its programs are designed to promote and maintain key behaviors in patients and the providers who care for them. The company's interventions are based on up-to-date, evidence-based clinical guidelines.

TTD' breakout comes on a "gap move" which is bullish. It shows strong demand for the stock on the opening. TTD featured the stock on its "Flash Ticker" near the opening.

HWAY's basing work is good. Notice on TTD's chart that the stock had a strong move higher with expanding volume about two weeks ago when it began to move up from the bottom of the base.

Today's strong move appears to be a continuation of a pattern of strong buying.

The stock's TTD momentum indicator is back in the bullish zone.

The accumulation - distribution line is in an overall up trend.

HWAY should show an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth. Net for the fiscal second quarter ending Feb.. 28 should be up 13% and then in the fiscal third quarter ending May 30 profits should be up 75%.

Accelerating quarterly earnings growth is often a driver to send a stock higher. With HWAY breaking out today, TTD sees the market working into that scenario.

For the fiscal year ending August 2008, analysts predict a 46% jump in net to $1.79 a share from $1.22 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 35, which TTD sees as reasonable. Going out to fiscal 2009, analysts predict a 32% improvement in net to $2.36 a share.

Strategy Opinion: HWAY has made a big point move today. However, TTD sees more to go on the upside. We are targeting the stock for a move to 73 within a few months. A protective stop can be placed near 60 giving it some room. TTD sees HWAY with potential to surprise even more on the upside. We rate the stock a good intermediate-term play.

Sponsorship:Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Baron Growth Fund with a big 4.6% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest buyer lately was 4-star rated Fidelity Small Cap Stock Fund which purchased 600,000 shares.

Insider Activity: Neutral. Some big insider buying lately, but insiders turned around sold. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Healthways Inc. (HWAY)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES
Price Trend - Daily YES
Price Trend - Long Term YES  
Price Daily Spread YES
Base Structure YES
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES  
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks Today

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 20

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Large number of breakouts today going to our max of 20. Bears continue to be aggressive as market remains in significant pull back. TTD's short plays working well. TTD's short play on Friday, JC Penny (JCP) falls 1.56 to 36.11.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Silicon Motion Technology Co. (SIMO) - 15.14, down 0.88

TTD Sees Drop to 11, Profit Growth to Slow

SIMO, based in Taiwan, embedded graphics, digital signal processing, and multimedia companion chips. Annual revenues: $106 million. SIMO breaks below key support at 16 today with expanding volume. With earnings growth expected to slow in coming quarters, TTD sees the stock as a good short play for aggressive bears.

So far today, SIMO is trading 1 million shares so far today, double its normal daily volume.

The stock got off to a bearish start in the morning. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 20,300 shares crossing at $15.15. That was within a sequence started by a down tick from $15.17. TTD sees the tape action as bearish.

SIMO's graphics, video, and audio applications are designed for use with handheld devices, wireless broadband terminals, LCD presentation devices, and other consumer devices. The company's key customers are  Hewlett-Packard, Intel, and Siemens.

SIMO's earnings for the fourth quarter should be up 16%. However, in the following first quarter, net should be down 11%. Overall analysts project net this year will be up 13%, a slowdown from the expected growth rate for 2007 of 49%.

TTD's chart of SIMO shows the stock in a clear down trend from a peak near 28. The stock's breakdown today comes with heavy volume. SIMO's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has been very bearish for most of the past few months. Most importantly, the accumulation - distribution line is trending lower showing that there is significant selling pressure.

TTD is targeting SIMO for a drop to 11 with in the next few months.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)