By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small but some very good looking plays. Stock market pulls back after two-day rally. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market in trading range. Earnings reports due.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AYI - ABOVE AVERAGE
AYI, based in Atlanta, Ga., makes lighting fixtures. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. AYI's stock breaks out Friday from a 10-week flat base. The stock responded to good quarterly earnings. TTD featured AYI as a potential breakout at our Thursday report. Friday, it clicks.
So far today, AYI is trading a heavy 1.1 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 272,000 shares.
AVY's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.
The stock then backed off slightly and trended sideways.
AYI's action is impressive given that the stock market fell sharply Friday.
AYI reported earnings per share fully diluted for the fiscal first quarter ended November 30 rose to $1.17 a share from $1.03 a year ago.
The $1.17 topped the consensus estimate of $1.15 a share. The highest estimate on the Street was at $1.20.
Adjusted earnings excluding a special charge for the quarter was $1.32 a share, a 38% increase.
AYI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks working higher from $140.59 in the prior session to as high as $153.50 Friday
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 7,863 shares crossed the tape at $152.25.
That was up sharply from the prior block at $142 on 13,138 shares late in the prior session.
AYI is the one of the world's largest lighting fixture makers. Its brands include Lithonia Lighting, Holophane, Peerless, and Hydrel.
The company's Acuity Specialty Products unit produces specialty chemical brands such as Zep, Enforcer, and Selig.
AYI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 22% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index.
AYI's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 23 back in 2005 to a peak near 66 in 2007, the top in the prior bull market.
The stock then fell back to 20 in 2009 due to the subsequent bear market. However, since then the stock has made a sensational sevenfold move to around 150.
AYI breaks out from a 10-week flat base. The move is technically strong coming with a gap move and expanding volume.
The base showed two shakeouts to the downside recently with the latest being less.
AYI's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags a bit.
Analysts are forecasting a 25% increase in AYI's earnings for the fiscal year ending in August of 2015.
The outlook is for net of $4.95 a share, up from $3.97 the year before. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 28.
There is a chance analysts may raise those estimates.
Going out to fiscal 2016 ending in August, the Street looks for a 22% gain in net to $6.04 a share from the anticipated $4.95 in the current fiscal year.
Net for the fiscal second quarter ending in February should surge 29% to 97 cents a share from 75 cents a year ago.
AYi's earnings table shows the company topping the Street estimates the past two quarters.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AYI for a move to 175 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 142.
TTD rates AYI a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet or top expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is the 5-star rated T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund with a 3.5% stake. It was a recent buyer of 150,000 shares.
Also the 5-star rated T. Rowe Price Inst. Mid-Cap Equity Growth Fund was a recent buyer of 66,000 shares. It has a 0.76% stake.
AYI has 42.3 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 93% of the stock and insiders 5%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were recent buyers around $137. They also bought with stock options at $29. They were sellers around $136.
Currently, 14 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, up from 7 three months ago. William Blair recently issued an outperform. AYI has a book value of $27.47.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Acuity Brands Inc. - (AYI)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NXPI - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HELE - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MHK - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ELLI - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Very selective list of shorts. Stock market falls back after recent two-day snap back rally. Bears be selective. Earnings to come.
ANDE, based in Maumee, Ohio, is a diversified firm involved in operating ethanol production and warehousing. Annual revenues: $4.9 billion. ANDE' stock falls today. The move undercuts near-term technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted ANDE as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
So far today, ANDE is trading 218,085 shares. Its average daily volume is 255,000 shares.
ANDE's stock fell in the morning and trended lower into the early afternoon hitting an intraday low of 48.42.
The stock then trended sideways into the close unable to stage a rally.
ANDE's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $50.75 in the prior session to as low as $48.99 on Friday.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 3,575 shares crossed the tape at $49.07. That was down from the prior block at $49.74 on 22,975 shares (duplicated).
ANDE operates grain elevators. It also provides storage, merchandising, and trading of grains, as well as offering marketing, risk management, and corn origination services to customers.
The ethanol segment operates four ethanol production facilities. The unit purchases and sells ethanol and provides facility operations and risk management.
The rail unit buys, sells, leases, rebuilds, and repairs a fleet of 22,700 railcars and locomotives.
This year, analysts are forecasting ANDE's earnings will rise just 1% to $4.18 a share from an anticipated $4.15 a share for 2014. Profits for 2014 are expected to be reported and show a 31% gain. The slowdown in profitability is the key bearish fundamental.
ANDE's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from 70 in September to around 50 by December. Today, the stock cuts below key support . ANDE's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower showing clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ANDE for a decline to 41 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 50.50.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ANDE - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)