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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - January 11, 2010


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades"  (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets

 (See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)


Conservative Bearish Investors  (swing traders).  "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long  These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.

  TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 16

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Good umber of breakout stocks with big oils showing up.  Bulls remain aggressive looking for high quality plays. The first part of January usually has a bullish bias. February is bearish.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE  Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) - 20.41, up 0.82 - Breakpoint 20.02

Fourth Quarter Net to Surge 41%, TTD Targets 26

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LTD -  AVERAGE

  LTD, based in Columbus, Ohio,  sells women’s apparel, beauty and personal care products and accessories under various trade names. Annual revenues: $8.6 billion. LTD's stock breaks out from a double-bottom or "W" base today with expanding volume. The move comes as a gap move, which is bullish. So far today, LTD is trading 6.3 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 3.5 million shares.

  TTD highlighted LTD as a breakout at our midsession show on the web.

  LTD's 5-minute chart shows the stock streaking higher in the morning. It fluttered near its breakpoint, but then eventually cleared it.

 The stock gain momentum as the session wore on and as the stock market staged a modest rally.

  LTD's tape action was very bullish during the day.

  TTD's clip of the big blocks shows the stock's price for the blocks advancing from $19.99 to $20.27.

  A key trade was a big block of 150,000 shares that crossed at $20.27. That was up sharply from the prior big block trade that went off at $20.20. That shows aggressive institutional buying.

  LTD retail stores are primarily mall-based. It also sells through its Websites and catalogues.

 As of January 31, 2009, the company conducted business in two segments: Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works.

  Victoria’s Secret operated 1,043 stores in the United States and 322 stores in Canada. The Bath & Body Works operated 1,638 stores in the United States.

  LTD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 120% versus a 300% gain for the S&P 500 index. So, LTD is performing very well.

  LTD's long-term chart shows the stock peaking at 32 in 2006. The stock was then dragged lower during the bear market sinking to 5.90. It has since rallied back strongly.

  LTD's 12-week, "W" base is picture perfect. The breakout on the gap move is ideal. Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock on January 8

  The base was set up after the stock rallied from 11 to a peak of 20. It then formed the W and rallied back to 20 to set up the "handle" portion of the base.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. It has not shown any unusual selling pressure. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bearish. It lags. TTD believes it will improve.

  Analysts expect LTD to post a 41% jump in net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31. They expect net of 96 cents a share, up from 68 cents a year ago.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 97 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The past four quarters, LTD topped the consensus estimate by 3 to 5 cents a share. That is impressive.

  Net for the fiscal year ending January 2010 should be up 1% to $1.07 a share from $1.05 a year ago.

   The key is fiscal 2011 ending in January. Analysts project a 25% gain in net to $1.33 a share from $1.07 a year ago. The stock has price-earnings ratio of 15 based on fiscal 2011 projected net.

  Strategy Opinion: LTD is a sold big cap play in the retail apparel sector. TTD is targeting LTD for a move to 26 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 18.50. TTD rates LTD a good intermediate-term play for conservative investors.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. Two key buyers recently. 4-star rated Janus Orion Fund bought 1.2 million shares and 4-star rated BlackRock Basic Value Fund added 2.4 million shares. LTD has 322 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Very little insider trading lately. Currently, 18 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.


  


  Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

    


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating

Limited Brands Inc.  - (LTD)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume     YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


  


Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAT -   BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BP - BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SVN -  AVERAGE

 


Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, January 11 - Weekly

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks. Bears remain conservative.  TTD's short play from Friday is  Global Payments Inc. (GPN) - 49.29, down 2.75. Today, GPN drops 1.46 to 47.50. It is working well for bears.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

AZZ Inc. (AZZ) - 31.36, down 0.97

Net to Fall 11% in Fiscal 2010, TTD Sees Dip to 26

AZZ, based in Fort Worth, Tex.,  makes electrical equipment and components for power generation and transmission. Annual revenues: $400 million. AZZ's stock declines today extending the drop it suffered on Friday that came with big volume. With lower profits coming for the fiscal year ending February 2010, TTD sees more on the downside. AZZ is  trading 189,284 shares so far today. Its average daily volume is 156,000 shares.

AZZ's stock fell sharply in the morning. It staged a modest rally around midday. However, in the afternoon, it moved lower again.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $34.37 to $32.52 at the opening on Friday. The key trade during this sequence of the tape was a big block of 95,767 shares that crossed at $33.80. That was within a sequence of declining prices for the blocks.

. AZZ has two business units: The Electrical and Industrial Products unit and the Galvanizing Services unit.

  Analysts expect AZZ's net for the fiscal year ending February 28 to drop 11% to $3.07 a share from $3.43 a year ago. Looking out to fiscal 2011, they expect a decline of 2% in net to $3.02 a share from the anticipated $3.07 a share.

  AZZ's chart shows the stock peaking around 42. It then pulled back to form a modes head-and-shoulder topping pattern. The breakdown today is very bearish technically. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now trending lower indicating clear selling pressure for the past few weeks.

 Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AZZ for a decline to 26 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 33.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)