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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - January 13, 2009


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

    Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts today - 0

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - No breakouts today. Dow locked in a trading range. Leading issues small in number. Bulls remain patient and watcful. Profit reports now important (see TTD's earnings forecaster)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Feature Stock

(No Breakouts Today. So, TTD features a strong acting issue)

American Science & Engineering Inc. (ASEI) - 76.58,  up 1.96  - Breakpoint 74.30

Profits to Jump Soar 60% in fiscal 2009, TTD Targets 92

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - ASEI - ABOVE AVERAGE

  ASEI, based in Billerica, Ma., is a worldwide supplier of X-ray inspection systems. Annual revenues: $160 million. ASEI is one of the few stocks holding above its breakpoint. TTD sees the stock as still in a spot to be accumulated. Today, TTD did not find any breakout plays as the market remains mired in a bear market phase. ASEI is up almost 2 points. Volume is running at 159,664 shares. Its average daily volume is 130,000 shares. TTD sees good upside prospects.

  ASEI broke out from a base at 75 four sessions ago with a big expansion in volume. The stock pulled back the next two days on contracting volume. Today, it turns higher again and most importantly with expanding volume. (See TTD's daily chart)

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of  50,000 shares crossing on an up tick to $75.77 from the prior trade at $75.72. The trade was the largest of the day. The tape action indicates aggressive institutional buying.

 TTD highlighted ASEI at our midsession show on the web today.

  TTD's intraday chart shows the close up of the breakout. Notice how the stock pulled back was able to bounce up from support. That is very bullish. The techncial resistance at 75 is now demonstrating support!  

  TTD's performance chart shows ASEI's stock has appreciated 45% the past 12 months.

 That compares with a 39% decline in the S&P 500 index.

 One can also see from the chart that ASEI rose sharply just before its last two quarterly reports and then afterwards continued higher. So, This move could be a repeated if earnings are good.

   ASEI utilizes a combination of technologies, including patented Z Backscatter technology, Radioactive Threat Detection (RTD), high energy transmission and dual energy transmission X-ray. These technologies offer superior X-ray threat detection for plastic explosives, plastic weapons, liquid explosives, dirty bombs and nuclear devices.

 ASEI’s complete range of products include cargo inspection systems for port and border security, baggage screening systems for facility and aviation security, and personnel and passenger screening systems.

 ASEI's systems protect high-threat facilities and help combat terrorism and trade fraud, drug smuggling, weapon smuggling, and illegal immigration and people smuggling.

 The company's customers include leading government agencies, border authorities, military bases, airports and corporations worldwide.

   ASEI's long-term chart shows the stock at a 2-year high. That is good technical action and indicates ASEI is a leader.

  TTD's daily chart shows ASEI's stock driving sharply higher and out of the flat base four sessions ago. The expansion in volume at that time makes the pattern very bullish.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is neutral.

  The accumulation - distribution line is in a strong up trend. It has pushed to a new peak confirming the action in the price of the stock .That means the underlying buying is bullish.

  ASEI's net for the fiscal year ending March 30 is projected to surge 60% to $3.18 a share from $1.99 a year ago. Analysts have been raising their estimates lately.

 The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as low given the current growth rate. So, the stock could be attractive to value-growth investors.

  The strong profit growth should continue. Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending Dec. 31 should leap 77% to 97 cents a share from 55 cents a year ago.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.07 a share. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise. The company is benefiting from good growth in international markets. ASEI is an obvious play on the war on terror and need for security.

  Strategy Opinion: ASEI's ability to hold its breakout is bullish. TTD suggests accumulation of a partial stake in ASEI with further buying to be done by averging up. A protective stop can be placed near 73 which is tight. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 92.   TTD rates ASEI a good intermediate-term play with potential to surprise more on the upside.

  Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated T. Rowe Price Small Cap Fund with a big 5.3% stake.  ASEI has only 8 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 2 million shares. They have been doing some selling the past few months. Their prior stake was at 2.4 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have done a little bit more buying than selling in recent months. Four analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, down from 3,  three months ago.



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating
American Science & Engineering Inc.  (ASEI)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship     YES
Total Score 11 0 3

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

None


Charts of Breakout Stocks

None


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today. Railroad stocks heading south. Bears be conservative as market remains in a trading range.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Luxottica Group SpA (LUX) - 16.50, off 0.56

Net to Drop 16% for 2008, TTD Sees Stock Sliding to 12.50

  LUX, based in Agordo, Italy, makes mid- to premium-price prescription eyewear frames and sunglasses. Annual revenues: $7.2 billion. LUX's stock breaks down today after trying to form a bottom. With earnings expected to be down in 2008 and then again in 2009, TTD sees more on the downside for LUX. So far today, LUX is trading 200,889 shares. Its average daily volume is 192,000 shares.

  LUX's stock gapped lower in the morning suffering the worst of its loss. It then lifted in the morning and then trended sideways.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a block of 2,500 shares crossing on a modest down tick to $16.46 from the prior trade at $16.48.

  LUX markets its own brands, including Ray-Ban and Oakley, as well as a portfolio of licensed designer labels, including Chanel, Prada, and Polo Ralph Lauren.

  The company is the largest eyewear retailer in North America through its Sunglass Hut, LensCrafters, Pearle Vision, and Ilori chains. The company also operates retail chains in Asia and Australia.

  Analysts expect LUX to report a 16% drop in 2008 earnings to $1.25 a share from $1.48 a year ago. The fourth quarter will be especially weak with profits expected to be down 29% to 22 cents a share from 31 cents a year ago. Looking out to 2009, profits should be down 7% to $1.16 a share.

  TTD's daily chart shows LUX in a down trend from 27. It tried to form a bottom, but is now headin lower.

  TTD is targeting LUX for a decline to 12.50.  



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)