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Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - January 17, 2006

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

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TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short.These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positionsboth as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

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Quote or chart

To email Leo leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

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Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 19

Stocks Screened- 8,200

Bull side - Good number of breakouts today in a mixed market. Bulls be selective in buying. One can venture into techs.

Long-Term Environment for bulls: Favorable.

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market Status (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today’s Featured Breakout Stock

Crocs Inc. (CROX) 51.25, up 31.23 - Breakpoint 50.50

Clothing Firm's Net to Rise 34% This Year, TTD Targets 62

CROX, based in Niwot, Co., makes slip-on shoes and clothes. Annual revenues: $108 million. CROX breaks out from a nine-week, cup-and-handle base today and hits a new high. Volume is running at 3 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 1.4 million shares. The stock is one of the best performing recent new issues.

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The stock is acting extremely well. A look at TTD's clip of the tape today shows the largest trade of the session. It is a big block of 75,000 shares crossing on a nice up tick to $51.13 from the prior trade at $51.07.

That indicates that institutions are aggressively going after the stock. That is bullish.

CROX and its trademark colorful slip-on shoes are gaining popularity in the watersports arena and in mainstream fashion. The shoes, sold under the Crocs brand name, are made of proprietary closed-cell resin and are known for their comfort.

The firm has plants in China, Mexico, Italy and Canada. CROX distributes through retailers like Dillard's, Nordstrom, REI, and The Sports Authority. CROX's shoes, designed for men, women, and children, feature a rear handle and are sold in 20 colors. The company is aggressively expanding.

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Technically, the stock is in a well formed base that showed a good "dry-up" of volume near the lows. In the most recent sessions, the up days have come on heavier volume. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has pushed back into the bullish zone. The accumulation-distribution line is bullish.

This year analysts predict a 34% jump in earnings to $2.04 a share from an anticipated $1.53 a share last year. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 25 based on this year's projected net. That is reasonable.

For the upcoming fourth quarter, CROX should check in with a big 256% surge in net to 43 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 44 cents a share.

TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past two quarters, CROX topped the consensus Street estimate by 12 to 16 cents a share. Revenues for the recently completed third quarter soared 192%. The powerful sales growth is driving earnings.

Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests a full position in CROX. We are calling for the stock to advance to 62 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 45.

TTD rates CROX a very good intermediate-term play if earnings growth continues at its current pace.

Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a big 4.3% stake. It was a recent buyer of 1.6 million shares. Also, 5-star rated Fidelity Advisor New Insights Fund was a recent buyer of 263,000 shares.

Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were buyers around 43 late last year. However, there was some selling which was slightly more. TTD sees it almost as a "wash." Six analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, up from 2 three months ago. Nollenberger Capital put out a buy back in November with a target of $51. The stock is there!

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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating

Crocs Inc. (CROX)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES
Volume YES
Tick Volume YES
Price Trend - Daily YES
Price Trend - Long Term YES
Price Daily Spread YES
Base Structure YES
Base - A-D YES
Earnings-Quarterly YES
Earnings-Long Term YES
Earnings Outlook YES
Industry Group YES
Prior Breakout Success YES
Fund Sponsorship YES
Total Score 13 0 1

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

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Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks Today

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Very few breakdowns today. Market looks extended now. Bears be alert for more plays, especially those with earnings disappointments.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

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Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Vonage Holdings Corp. (VG) - 6.06

VG, based Holmdel, N.J., allows customers to turn a high-speed Internet connection into a long-distance phone service. Annual revenues: $269 million. VG moves lower today and triggers a TTD short play. The stock's decline violates key support near 6.50. VG is in a bear market of its own. The stock came public last year and traded around 12. It has since lost about 50% and is still heading lower.

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So far today VG is trading 841,400 shares. That is almost double its normal daily volume of 511,000 shares.

VG provides broadband Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP). The company serves consumers and small business clients. It has 1.6 million subscriber lines in service primarily in the US with an expanding presence in Canada and the UK.

The company's services are marketed directly through an Internet web site and through retail partners that include Amazon.com, RadioShack, Best Buy, and Circuit City Stores. Chairman Jeffrey Citron owns a 33% of the stock.

This year, VG should show a loss of $1.52 a share compared with an anticipated loss of $2.63 a share for 2006.

TTD sees the technical pattern still favorable for bears. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is extremely bearish. The accumulation - distribution line is in a down trend. TTD is targeting VG for a decline to 4.50 within the next few months, or sooner. We see VG as a good trading short for bears.

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TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)