By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts as stock falls sharply. Blue chips now bearish. Nasdaq vulnerable. Bulls be selective and watch all positions.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WSO - ABOVE AVERAGE
WSO, based in Miami, Fla., makes heating and refrigeration equipment. Annual revenues: $3.7 billion. WSO's stock breaks out today from a seven-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. So far today, WSO is trading a heavy 583,116 shares, almost double its average daily volume of 298,000 shares.
TTD highlighted WSO as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
The stock's breakout is impressive coming against a stock market that fell sharply for the day. Also, WSO is a slow moving stock with a modest beta of 0.88 versus the stock market's beta of 1.00
Watsco, Inc., a Florida corporation was incorporated in 1956. The Company is an independent.
WSO's 10-minute chart shows the stock edging over its breakpoint in the morning. The stock was able to maintain its breakout through the day.
In the final hour it pushed a bit higher with volume picking up.
WSO's tape action shows the stock's big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from $95,15 a few sessions ago to as high as $98.84.
A key bullish block trade came late in the day when 35,994 shares crossed the tape at $98.84.
That was up from the prior block at $97.87.
The value of the 35,994 share block was $3.6 million.
WSO sells residential central air conditioners ranging from 1- 1/2 to 5 tons, light commercial air conditioners ranging up to 20 tons, gas, electric and oil furnaces ranging from 50,000 to 150,000 BTUs, commercial air conditioning and heating equipment and systems ranging from 1-1/2 to 25 tons.
The company operates from 573 locations in 38 U.S. states, Canada, Mexico and Puerto Rico with additional market coverage on an export basis to Latin America and the Caribbean. ,
WSO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 32% versus a 23% gain for the S&P 500 index.
WSO's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 12 back in early 2003 to a peak of 72 by 2006.
The stock then fell back to 29 by 2008 due to the bear market.
However, since then it has soared to 98, a triple. The push to a new high could draw in more buying on Friday.
WSO's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 80 back in June to a peak near 98 by August.
The stock then traced out a flat base that tightened up the past three months.
The stock's breakout Thursday is modest.
So, it will be important to see follow through action.
WSO's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is strongly bullish and broke out to the upside before the price of the stock.
It was a good lead indicator.
Analysts expect WSO to check in with a 21% increase in earnings for 2013 at $3.67 a share, up from $3.04 a year ago.
Profits for the fourth quarter of 2013 should be up 20% to 49 cents a share from 41 cents a year ago.
The company tends to be tricky in matching Street quarterly estimates. So, the stock needs to be watched closely.
Looking ahead to 2014, the Street is predicting a 20% gain in net to $4.41 a share from the anticipated $3.67 for 2013.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22 based on projected 2014 net.
Net for the first quarter of 2014 should be up 18% to 46 cents a share from 39 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WSO for a move to 115 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 94.
TTD rates WSO an average intermediate-term play. There is a chance for a stock split and that could push the stock higher.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund with a 1.6% stake. The 4-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 12,900 shares.
Also, the 4-star rated Ivy Small Cap Growth Fund was a recent purchaser of 10,800 shares. It has a 0.65% interest in WSO.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were buyers around $22 recently. They were sellers around $92 to $96.
Currently, 10 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Watsco Inc. - (WSO)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GMT - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DLX - ABOVE AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 12
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Short list big as stock market falls sharply. Bears can be venturesome. TTD's short from Wednesday was Firstenergy Corp. (FE) at 31.18. The stock has declined to 30.95 today and is working well for bears.
AEO, based in Pittsburgh, sells clothes and accessories through 893 stores. Annual revenues: $3.4 billion. AEO's stock falls sharply today with heavy volume. The company said its president and CEO resigned. So far today, AEO is trading a heavy 24.1 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 4.7 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted AEO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
AEO's stock fell in the morning and hit an intraday low of 12.80. The stock then recovered slightly. The decline in the morning came with heavy volume.
AEO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from$14.74 a few sessions ago to as low as $12.95.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 209,472 shares crossed the tape at $13.25.
That was down from the prior block at $14.32 on 100,000 shares.
The stock was downgraded by an analyst at Stifel who said the chances for a turnaround at AEO have become less certain.
AEO is a specialty retailer of jeans, khakis, and T-shirts under its American Eagle Outfitters and AE brand names for exclusive sale in its stores.
The company focuses on several core brand and merchandising strategies to differentiate the company from competition.
Analysts are forecasting AEO will show a 48% drop in earnings for the fiscal year ending in January of 2014. They see net at 73 cents a share, down from $1.39 a year ago. Profits for the fiscal fourth quarter should slump 53% to 26 cents a share from 55 cents the year before.
Going out to fiscal 2015 ending in January, the Street looks for a 21% rebound in net to 88 cents a share from the anticipated 77 cents for fiscal 2014. AEO's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) shows heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AEO for a decline to 10 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 14.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AEO - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)