By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts. Stock market trending higher. Bulls be selective. Moving Toward February a weak month for Bulls. Bulls be selective.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARII - AVERAGE
ARII, based in St. Charles, Mo., makes railcars. Annual revenues: $701 million. ARII's stock breaks out today from a six-week cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a 4-year high. So far today, ARII is trading 381,865 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 104,000 shares.
TTD highlighted ARII as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
The stock raced higher in the morning hitting an intraday peak of 37.46. The stock then pulled back a bit and trended sideways the rest of the day.
ARII's 10-minute chart shows the stock posting strong intraday volume on its breakout.
ARII's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks for the session climbing from $35.20 a few days ago to as high as $36.95.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 11,011 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $35.78.
That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $35.17.
Then later a block of 3,800 shares crossed at $37.01. So the institutional buying in the morning was bullish.
ARII is a North American maker of covered hopper and tank railcars.
The company also repairs and refurbishes railcars and provides fleet management services. It also designs and makes railcar and industrial components used in the production of its railcars.
ARII's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% versus a 17% gain for the S&P 500 index.
The performance chart shows key insider buying (in green) coming in June. Since that time the stock has performed well for bulls.
ARII's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2006 and trading around 28. The stock peaked at $43.48. in 2007. The stock then headed south during the bear market. It fell to a low of $4.08 in late 2008. It has since made a big come back getting to $36 - a ninefold move.
ARII's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 26 in November to a peak of 36 in December. The stock then pulled back sharply.
However, it then firmed and rallied back to the peak to set up its base.
Today, the stock rolls North breaking out from the base.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend showing good buying even when the stock pulled back in late December.
For 2012, analysts expect a surge in net to $2.67 a share from 20 cents a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 13. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value investors.
Going out to 2013, Wall Street projects a 24% gain in net to $3.32 a share from the anticipated $2.67 this year. They have been raising their forecast.
ARII's quarterly net will be strong for the next two quarters.
Net for the fourth quarter should surge 225% to 78 cents a share from 24 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 83 cents a share.
Going out to the first quarter, profits should climb 34% to 75 cents a share from 56 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARII for a move to 44 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 33.50.
TTD rates ARII a good intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings outlook and low valuation.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Fund with a 2.4% stake. It has held its position steady. Most other top holding funds have held their positions steady.
ARII has 21.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 97% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bullish. Insiders have been light buyers last year at $20.90. That buyer was Carl Icahn. Since then there has been no insider buying. Options have been granted though from $6.71 to as high as $20.46.
Currently, 8 analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
American Railcar Industries Inc. (ARII)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ICPT - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COO - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TREX - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ACCL - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of short plays as stock market is mixed. TTD's recent short play Apple Inc. (AAPL) falls 60.56 to 453.37. Bears be selective. Stock market moves toward February which tends to be bearish seasonally.
LOGI, based in Switzerland, makes video cameras, key boards and audio products. Annual revenues: $2.3 billion. LOGI's stock falls sharply today on heavy trading. The decline was linked to the company posting a quarterly loss. So far today, LOGI is trading 1.9 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 436,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
LOGI reported a loss of for the fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31 of $1.24 a share, which include special items. A year ago, it earned 32 cents a share.
The stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 6.82. The stock then lifted slightly and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
The stock's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $7.55 to as low as $6.91.
A key trade came at the opening when a block of 25,783 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $6.95. That was down sharply from the prior block at $7.61.
LOGI makes internet video cameras, mice and trackballs, keyboards, audio and telephony products, interactive gaming devices and 3D controllers.
Analysts have been forecasting a 19% rise in net for the fiscal year ending March 30. That may be revised.
LOGI's stock chart shows the stock trending lower. It rallied a bit, but now rolls over with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is extremely bearish showing heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LOGI for a decline to 5 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 7.70.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LOGI - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)